Uncertainties of predictions in models of eternal inflation

In a previous paper \cite{MakingPredictions}, a method of comparing the volumes of thermalized regions in eternally inflating universe was introduced. In this paper, we investigate the dependence of the results obtained through that method on the choice of the time variable and factor ordering in the diffusion equation that describes the evolution of eternally inflating universes. It is shown, both analytically and numerically, that the variation of the results due to factor ordering ambiguity inherent in the model is of the same order as their variation due to the choice of the time variable. Therefore, the results are, within their accuracy, free of the spurious dependence on the time parametrization.Comment: 30 pages, RevTeX, figure included, added some references and Comments on recent proposal (gr-qc/9511058) of alternative regularization schemes, to appear in Phys. Rev.

Bounds on isocurvature perturbations from CMB and LSS data

We obtain very stringent bounds on the possible cold dark matter, baryon and neutrino isocurvature contributions to the primordial fluctuations in the Universe, using recent cosmic microwave background and large scale structure data. In particular, we include the measured temperature and polarization power spectra from WMAP and ACBAR, as well as the matter power spectrum from the 2dF galaxy redshift survey. Neglecting the possible effects of spatial curvature, tensor perturbations and reionization, we perform a Bayesian likelihood analysis with nine free parameters, and find that the amplitude of the isocurvature component cannot be larger than about 31% for the cold dark matter mode, 91% for the baryon mode, 76% for the neutrino density mode, and 60% for the neutrino velocity mode, at 2-sigma, for uncorrelated models. On the other hand, for correlated adiabatic and isocurvature components, the fraction could be slightly larger. However, the cross-correlation coefficient is strongly constrained, and maximally correlated/anticorrelated models are disfavored. This puts strong bounds on the curvaton model, independently of the bounds on non-Gaussianity.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, some minor corrections; version accepted in PR

Unambiguous probabilities in an eternally inflating universe

``Constants of Nature'' and cosmological parameters may in fact be variables related to some slowly-varying fields. In models of eternal inflation, such fields will take different values in different parts of the universe. Here I show how one can assign probabilities to values of the ``constants'' measured by a typical observer. This method does not suffer from ambiguities previously discussed in the literature.Comment: 7 pages, Final version (minor changes), to appear in Phys. Rev. Let

Gauge invariant MSSM inflaton

We argue that all the necessary ingredients for successful inflation are present in the flat directions of the Minimally Supersymmetric Standard Model. We show that out of many gauge invariant combinations of squarks, sleptons and Higgses, there are two directions, ${\bf LLe}$, and ${\bf udd}$, which are promising candidates for the inflaton. The model predicts more than $10^3$ e-foldings with an inflationary scale of $H_{\rm inf}\sim {\cal O}(1-10)$ GeV, provides a tilted spectrum with an amplitude of $\delta_H\sim 10^{-5}$ and a negligible tensor perturbation. The temperature of the thermalized plasma could be as low as $T_{rh}\sim {\cal O}(1-10)$~TeV. Parts of the inflaton potential can be determined independently of cosmology by future particle physics experiments.Comment: 4 revtex pages, some references added, stabilization of moduli and supergravity effects are discusse

Predictability crisis in inflationary cosmology and its resolution

Models of inflationary cosmology can lead to variation of observable parameters ("constants of Nature") on extremely large scales. The question of making probabilistic predictions for today's observables in such models has been investigated in the literature. Because of the infinite thermalized volume resulting from eternal inflation, it has proven difficult to obtain a meaningful and unambiguous probability distribution for observables, in particular due to the gauge dependence. In the present paper, we further develop the gauge-invariant procedure proposed in a previous work for models with a continuous variation of "constants". The recipe uses an unbiased selection of a connected piece of the thermalized volume as sample for the probability distribution. To implement the procedure numerically, we develop two methods applicable to a reasonably wide class of models: one based on the Fokker-Planck equation of stochastic inflation, and the other based on direct simulation of inflationary spacetime. We present and compare results obtained using these methods.Comment: 23 pages, 13 figure

Generalized Slow Roll Conditions and the Possibility of Intermediate Scale Inflation in Scalar-Tensor Theory

Generalized slow roll conditions and parameters are obtained for a general form of scalar-tensor theory (with no external sources), having arbitrary functions describing a nonminimal gravitational coupling F(\phi), a Kahler-like kinetic function k(\phi), and a scalar potential V(\phi). These results are then used to analyze a simple toy model example of chaotic inflation with a single scalar field \phi and a standard Higgs potential and a simple gravitational coupling function. In this type of model inflation can occur with inflaton field values at an intermediate scale of roughly 10^{11} GeV when the particle physics symmetry breaking scale is approximately 1 TeV, provided that the theory is realized within the Jordan frame. If the theory is realized in the Einstein frame, however, the intermediate scale inflation does not occur.Comment: 14 pages, no figs. Accepted to Classical and Quantum Gravit

Blue spectra and induced formation of primordial black holes

We investigate the statistical properties of primordial black hole (PBH) formation in the very early Universe. We show that the high level of inhomogeneity of the early Universe leads to the formation of the first generation PBHs. %The existence of these PBHs This causes later the appearance of a dust-like phase of the cosmological expansion. We discuss here a new mechanism for the second generation of PBH formation during the dust-like phase. This mechanism is based on the coagulation process. We demonstrate that the blue power spectrum of initial adiabatic perturbations after inflation leads to overproduction of primordial black holes with $10^9$g$\le M\le10^{15}$g if the power index is $n\ge1.2$.Comment: 16 pages, 2 figure