Using Uncertainty to Guide Characterization, Closure and Long-term Management of an Underground Nuclear Test Site

No feasible remediation technology has been identified for nuclear test cavities such that site management and institutional controls must be relied on to minimize the possibility of public exposure to these legacies of the Cold War. The most common exposure pathway of concern is migration of radionuclides with groundwater. Prediction of flow and transport behavior in the sparsely observed subsurface environment is inherently uncertain, but developing effective management strategies demands such predictions. An agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the State of Nevada provides a framework for addressing uncertainty in site management decisions. The central element of the framework is calculation of a predictive contaminant boundary at a specified confidence interval. This boundary is defined as a three-dimensional region encompassing all groundwater that contains radionuclides at concentrations higher than Safe Drinking Water Act limits at any time through a 1,000-year period, at a 95-percent confidence interval. In the process of predicting this boundary at the Shoal underground nuclear test site in rural Nevada, some interesting challenges were encountered. A stochastic groundwater flow and transport model was developed for the site using historic site data and information from four characterization wells drilled in 1996. Though the predicted mean transport plume was located within the existing site land boundary, uncertainty in the predictions was very large such that the 95-percent confidence interval extended beyond the site boundary. This level of uncertainty was unacceptable to DOE, prompting additional site characterization with the goal of reducing the uncertainty in contaminant migration predictions. The numerical groundwater flow model was used to identify the optimum data collection activities for uncertainty reduction. This Data Decision Analysis guided drilling and testing of additional wells. Significant revision occurred to the groundwater model as a result of the new data. The revised model was deemed acceptable by both DOE and the State of Nevada, and has been used to determine the contaminant boundary for the site, the calculation of which required choices regarding risk or concentration metrics and whether to focus on the uncertainty of where the contaminants might be or where the groundwater is free of contaminants. The model was also used to develop an optimum monitoring system, the installation of which provided another opportunity to reduce uncertainty as data were collected for model validation. The short-term validation process, and long-term monitoring, provide data that can feed back into the stochastic flow and transport model to cull poorly performing model realizations and reduce uncertainty in the model predictions

Magnetism and domain formation in SU(3)-symmetric multi-species Fermi mixtures

We study the phase diagram of an SU(3)-symmetric mixture of three-component ultracold fermions with attractive interactions in an optical lattice, including the additional effect on the mixture of an effective three-body constraint induced by three-body losses. We address the properties of the system in $D \geq 2$ by using dynamical mean-field theory and variational Monte Carlo techniques. The phase diagram of the model shows a strong interplay between magnetism and superfluidity. In the absence of the three-body constraint (no losses), the system undergoes a phase transition from a color superfluid phase to a trionic phase, which shows additional particle density modulations at half-filling. Away from the particle-hole symmetric point the color superfluid phase is always spontaneously magnetized, leading to the formation of different color superfluid domains in systems where the total number of particles of each species is conserved. This can be seen as the SU(3) symmetric realization of a more general tendency to phase-separation in three-component Fermi mixtures. The three-body constraint strongly disfavors the trionic phase, stabilizing a (fully magnetized) color superfluid also at strong coupling. With increasing temperature we observe a transition to a non-magnetized SU(3) Fermi liquid phase.Comment: 36 pages, 17 figures; Corrected typo

Modeling to Support Groundwater Contaminant Boundaries for the Shoal Underground Nuclear Test

Groundwater flow and radionuclide transport at the Shoal underground nuclear test are characterized using three-dimensional numerical models, based on site-specific hydrologic data. The objective of this modeling is to provide the flow and transport models needed to develop a contaminant boundary defining the extent of radionuclide-contaminated groundwater at the site throughout 1,000 years at a prescribed level of confidence. This boundary will then be used to manage the Project Shoal Area for the protection of the public and the environment

Sistema sulco/camalhão para irrigação e drenagem em áreas de várzea.

SISTEMA SULCO/CAMALHÃO PARA IRRIGAÇÃO E DRENAGEM EM ÁREAS DE VÁRZEA - A soja e o milho são as principais culturas produtoras de grãos utilizadas na diversificação do sistema de produção nas várzeas do Rio Grande do Sul, em rotação com o arroz irrigado. Os principais fatores limitantes, para que estas culturas sejam produtivas e rentáveis neste sistema, são a deficiente drenagem natural do solo e a ocorrência de freqüentes períodos de estiagem, acarretando alternância entre o excesso e o déficit de umidade no solo. A Embrapa Clima Temperado testou e validou a técnica sulco/camalhão em áreas sistematizadas com e sem declive, para estes cultivos, com resultados bastante promissores. O sistema consiste na estruturação da lavoura para a irrigação por sulcos, obtendo-se, ao mesmo tempo, grande benefício em drenagem, com o cultivo sobre os camalhões formados entre os sulcos. Esta técnica, como sistema complementar de drenagem superficial do solo, mostrou-se muito eficiente mesmo nos cultivos em áreas sistematizadas sem declive, onde não existe um gradiente para escoamento superficial da água. O principal requisito para a irrigação por sulcos é que o terreno tenha uma declividade constante e uniforme, requerendo geralmente a sistematização do terreno. Para irrigações mais uniformes e eficientes, a declividade deve variar de 0,10% a 0,50%, sendo que valores intermediários entre 0,15% e 0,30% são os mais indicadosbitstream/item/31294/1/comunicado-165.pd

ERK1 as a therapeutic target for dendritic cell vaccination against high-grade gliomas

Glioma regression requires the recruitment of potent anti-tumor immune cells into the tumor microenvironment. Dendritic cells (DCs) play a role in immune responses to these tumors. The fact that DC vaccines do not effectively combat high-grade gliomas, however, suggests that DCs need to be genetically modified especially to promote their migration to tumor relevant sites. Previously, we identified extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK1) as a regulator of DC immunogenicity and brain autoimmunity. In the present study, we made use of modern magnetic resonance methods to study the role of ERK1 in regulating DC migration and tumor progression in a model of high-grade glioma. We found that ERK1-deficient mice are more resistant to the development of gliomas, and tumor growth in these mice is accompanied by a higher infiltration of leukocytes. ERK1-deficient DCs exhibit an increase in migration that is associated with sustained Cdc42 activation and increased expression of actin-associated cytoskeleton-organizing proteins. We also demonstrated that ERK1 deletion potentiates DC vaccination and provides a survival advantage in high-grade gliomas. Considering the therapeutic significance of these results, we propose ERK1-deleted DC vaccines as an additional means of eradicating resilient tumor cells and preventing tumor recurrence

Remediation of the Faultless Underground Nuclear Test: Moving Forward in the Face of Model Uncertainty

The Faultless underground nuclear test, conducted in central Nevada, is the site of an ongoing environmental remediation effort that has successfully progressed through numerous technical challenges due to close cooperation between the U.S. Department of Energy, (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration and the State of Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP). The challenges faced at this site are similar to those of many other sites of groundwater contamination: substantial uncertainties due to the relative lack of data from a highly heterogeneous subsurface environment. Knowing when, where, and how to devote the often enormous resources needed to collect new data is a common problem, and one that can cause remediators and regulators to disagree and stall progress toward closing sites. For Faultless, a variety of numerical modeling techniques and statistical tools are used to provide the information needed for DOE and NDEP to confidently move forward along the remediation path to site closure. A general framework for remediation was established in an agreement and consent order between DOE and the State of Nevada that recognized that no cost-effective technology currently exists to remove the source of contaminants in nuclear cavities. Rather, the emphasis of the corrective action is on identifying the impacted groundwater resource and ensuring protection of human health and the environment from the contamination through monitoring. As a result, groundwater flow and transport modeling is the linchpin in the remediation effort. An early issue was whether or not new site data should be collected via drilling and testing prior to modeling. After several iterations of the Corrective Action Investigation Plan, all parties agreed that sufficient data existed to support a flow and transport model for the site. Though several aspects of uncertainty were included in the subsequent modeling work, concerns remained regarding uncertainty in individual parameter values and the additive effects of multiple sources of uncertainty. Ultimately, the question was whether new data collection would substantially reduce uncertainty in the model. A Data Decision Analysis (DDA) was performed to quantify uncertainty in the existing model and determine the most cost-beneficial activities for reducing uncertainty, if reduction was needed. The DDA indicated that though there is large uncertainty present in some model parameters, the overall uncertainty in the calculated contaminant boundary during the 1,000-year regulatory timeframe is relatively small. As a result, limited uncertainty reduction can be expected from expensive characterization activities. With these results, DOE and NDEP have determined that the site model is suitable for moving forward in the corrective action process. Key to this acceptance is acknowledgment that the model requires independent validation data and the site requires long-term monitoring. Developing the validation and monitoring plans, and calculating contaminant boundaries are the tasks now being pursued for the site. The significant progress made for the site is due to the close cooperation and communication of the parties involved and an acceptance and understanding of the role of uncertainty

High temporal resolution parametric MRI monitoring of the initial ischemia/reperfusion phase in experimental acute kidney injury

Ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) injury, a consequence of kidney hypoperfusion or temporary interruption of blood flow is a common cause of acute kidney injury (AKI). There is an unmet need to better understand the mechanisms operative during the initial phase of ischemic AKI. Non-invasive parametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) may elucidate spatio-temporal pathophysiological changes in the kidney by monitoring the MR relaxation parameters T* and T, which are known to be sensitive to blood oxygenation. The aim of our study was to establish the technical feasibility of fast continuous T*/T mapping throughout renal I/R. MRI was combined with a remotely controlled I/R model and a segmentation model based semi-automated quantitative analysis. This technique enabled the detailed assessment of changes in all kidney regions during ischemia and early reperfusion. Significant changes in T* and T were observed shortly after induction of renal ischemia and during the initial reperfusion phase. Our study demonstrated for the first time that continuous and high temporal resolution parametric MRI is feasible for monitoring and characterization of I/R induced AKI in rats. This technique may help in the identification of the timeline of key events responsible for development of renal damage in hypoperfusion-induced AKI

Significant reduction in heart rate variability is a feature of acute decompensation of cirrhosis and predicts 90-day mortality

Background: Heart rate variability (HRV) is reduced in cirrhosis and in conditions of systemic inflammation. Whether HRV is associated with cirrhosis decompensation and development of acute‐on‐chronic liver failure (ACLF) is unknown. // Aims: To (a) validate wireless remote HRV monitoring in cirrhosis decompensation; (b) determine if severely reduced HRV is a surrogate for inflammation and progression of cirrhosis decompensation; (c) assess if measuring HRV determines prognosis in cirrhosis decompensation. // Methods: One hundred and eleven patients at risk of cirrhosis decompensation at two clinical sites were monitored for HRV. Standard deviation of all normal beat‐beat intervals (SDNN) reflecting HRV was assessed using remote monitoring (Isansys Lifetouch) and/or Holter ECG recording. Clinical outcomes and major prognostic scores were recorded during 90‐day follow‐up. // Results: Reduced HRV denoted by lower baseline SDNN, correlated with severity of decompensation (median 14 (IQR 11‐23) vs 33 (25‐42); P < 0.001, decompensated patients vs stable outpatient cirrhosis). Furthermore, SDNN was significantly lower in patients developing ACLF compared to those with only decompensation (median 10 (IQR9‐12) vs 16 (11‐24); P = 0.02), and correlated inversely with MELD and Child‐Pugh scores, and C‐reactive protein (all P < 0.0001) and white cell count (P < 0.001). SDNN predicted disease progression on repeat measures and appeared an independent predictor of 90‐day mortality (12 patients). An SDNN cut‐off of 13.25 ms had a 98% negative predictive value. // Conclusions: This study demonstrates that remote wireless HRV monitoring identifies cirrhosis patients at high risk of developing ACLF and death, and suggests such monitoring might guide the need for early intervention in such patients. Clinical Trial number: NIHR clinical research network CPMS ID 4949

Dynamics of Decadal Climate Variability and Implications for its Prediction

The temperature record of the last 150 years is characterized by a long-term warming trend, with strong multidecadal variability superimposed. The multidecadal variability is also seen in other (societal important) parameters such as Sahel rainfall or Atlantic hurricane activity. The existence of the multidecadal variability makes climate change detection a challenge, since Global Warming evolves on a similar timescale. The ongoing discussion about a potential anthropogenic signal in the Atlantic hurricane activity is an example. A lot of work was devoted during the last years to understand the dynamics of the multidecadal variability, and external as well as internal mechanisms were proposed. This White Paper focuses on the internal mechanisms relevant to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation/Variability (AMO/V) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Variability (PDO/V). Specific attention is given to the role of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in the Atlantic. The implications for decadal predictability and prediction are discussed