A new mechanism for anticipating price exuberance

It is very important for investors, market regulators, and policy makers to possess a trustworthy ex-ante tool capable of anticipating price exuberance events. This paper proposes a new statistical mechanism to predict speculative bubbles by inferring a significant probability of exuberance at least one step ahead of a bubble peak period. Contrary to other approaches, we combine asset pricing modeling and non-stationarity statistical analysis and use both in the context of adaptive learning to build a dynamic model specification. Monte Carlo simulations show that the ex-ante prediction is improved enormously by adding the estimated abnormal returns into the model. In some cases our mechanism predicts 100% of the last bubbles of the sample up to five periods before the peak. Furthermore, the mechanism is able to successfully anticipate the technological bubble observed in the 1990’s by estimating a probability greater than 90%, one month before the bubble peak. Thus, this new mechanism provides an advantage for investors interested in performing a very profitable “bubble surfing” strategy and for market regulators whose responsibility is to maintain market efficiency.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Irrigação do arroz de terras altas em função da porcentagem de cobertura do solo pela palhada, no sistema plantio direto.

Introdução; Coeficiente do tanque; Coeficiente de cultura; Controle de irrigação.bitstream/CNPAF/23535/1/circ_69.pd

Nutrição mineral de bovinos de corte em pastejo - repostas de plantas forrageiras à adubação e de bovinos à suplementação da pastagem.

bitstream/CPPSE/17748/1/Documentos81.pd

Semiclassical back reaction around a cosmic dislocation

The energy-momentum vacuum average of a conformally coupled massless scalar field vibrating around a cosmic dislocation (a cosmic string with a dislocation along its axis) is taken as source of the linearized semiclassical Einstein equations. The solution up to first order in the Planck constant is derived. Motion of a test particle is then discussed, showing that under certain circumstances a helical-like dragging effect, with no classical analogue around the cosmic dislocation, is induced by back reaction.Comment: Published version, 4 pages, no figures, REVTeX4 fil

Ocorrência e caracterização dos danos de Erosomyia mangiferae na cultura da manga do Submédio do Vale do São Francisco.

A alteração no agroecossistema da mangueira, provocada pela expansão das áreas cultivadas na região do Submédio do Vale do São Francisco, tem propiciado condições favoráveis aos problemas fitossanitários, como o surgimento de novas pragas. Em meados de 1993, em um pomar comercial de mangueira, no município de Petrolina-PE, constatou-se a ocorrência de um pequeno díptero atacando os ponteiros e a panícula floral da mangueira identificado como Erosomyia mangiferae Felt (Diptera, Cecidomyiidae). Esta praga foi constatada atacando os tecidos tenros da planta, tais como: brotações e folhas novas, panícula floral e frutos do estádio de "chumbinho". Nas brotações e no eixo da inflorescêcia, observam-se pequenos orifícios, através dos quais há formação de galerias que se tornam necrosadas, apresentando, posteriormente, uma exsudação principalmente nas brotações. Nas folhas novas, ocorrem numerosas pontuações esbranquiçadas, contendo as larvas em seu interior. Estas pontuações, após a saída das larvas, tornam-se escuras e necrosadas, podendo ser facilmente confundidas com manchas fúngicas. Em consequência do ataque no eixo da inflorescência, a panícula floral apresenta uma curvatura de fácil visualização na planta, que caracteriza a presença dessa praga na cultura. Além do ataque no eixo da inflorescência, que pode ocasionar a perda total da panícula floral, E. mangiferae pode, também, danificar individualmente os botóes florais e os frutos recém-formados, provocando a queda dos mesmos.Coordenado por Abel Rebouças São José, Tiyoko Nair Hojo Rebouças, Daniel Nieto Angel, Ivan Vilas Bôas Souza, Nilma Oliveira Dias, Marinês Pereira Bomfim. Trabalhos apresentados no I Simpósio Latino Americano sobre Produção de Manga, 1999, Vitória da Conquista, BA

Assessment of layerwise user-elements in Abaqus for static and free vibration analysis of variable stiffness composite laminates

In this work, user-elements (UEL) in Abaqus are taken a step forward into the high-order layerwise modelling of variable stiffness composite laminates with curvilinear fibre paths, extending the limited number of available literature on refined multilayered UEL models. Two layerwise UEL models with three discrete layers are here proposed, assigning to each layer the displacements of the first- and third-order shear deformation theories, thus named UEL1 and UEL3, respectively. A complete assessment of the models predictive capabilities is carried out by a comparison with available static and free vibration solutions in the literature – either for constant or variable stiffness laminates – considering various boundary and loading conditions, as well as thin and moderately thick plates. Numerical results demonstrate that the developed models are capable to render fairly accurate and computationally efficient results, with particular emphasis on the higher-order model for predicting the global–local response behaviour of moderately thick plates

Analytical modeling of panel flutter and active control in supersonic variable stiffness composite laminates

This work focuses on panel flutter and active control in supersonic variable stiffness composite laminates, making progress on the analytical modeling and combined exploration of curvilinear fiber composites tailoring and piezoelectric sensors/actuators, as promising structural design technologies, for aeroelastic control. The Classical Laminated Plate Theory and the First-Order Piston Theory are used as structural and aerodynamic models, respectively. Flutter analyses are carried out for simply supported plates, either purely elastic laminates or piezoelectric composite laminates. The tailor-ability of curvilinear fiber composites and the effect of proportional control are discussed. Ultimately, the presented results provide a comprehensive benchmark for future assessments

Invasion Percolation Between two Sites

We investigate the process of invasion percolation between two sites (injection and extraction sites) separated by a distance r in two-dimensional lattices of size L. Our results for the non-trapping invasion percolation model indicate that the statistics of the mass of invaded clusters is significantly dependent on the local occupation probability (pressure) Pe at the extraction site. For Pe=0, we show that the mass distribution of invaded clusters P(M) follows a power-law P(M) ~ M^{-\alpha} for intermediate values of the mass M, with an exponent \alpha=1.39. When the local pressure is set to Pe=Pc, where Pc corresponds to the site percolation threshold of the lattice topology, the distribution P(M) still displays a scaling region, but with an exponent \alpha=1.02. This last behavior is consistent with previous results for the cluster statistics in standard percolation. In spite of these discrepancies, the results of our simulations indicate that the fractal dimension of the invaded cluster does not depends significantly on the local pressure Pe and it is consistent with the fractal dimension values reported for standard invasion percolation. Finally, we perform extensive numerical simulations to determine the effect of the lattice borders on the statistics of the invaded clusters and also to characterize the self-organized critical behavior of the invasion percolation process.Comment: 7 pages, 11 figures, submited for PR