Qualitative Uncertainty Orderings Revised

AbstractIn recent decades, qualitative approaches to probabilistic uncertainty have been receiving wider and wider attention. We propose a new characterization of some of the most adopted partial preference orders by providing an uniform axiomatic treatment of a variety of qualitative uncertainty notions. We prove a representation result that connects qualitative notions of partial uncertainty to their numerical counterparts. We also describe an executable specification, in the declarative framework of Answer Set Programming, that constitutes the core engine for the qualitative management of uncertainty. Some basic reasoning tasks are also identified

Conjunction, disjunction and iterated conditioning of conditional events

Starting from a recent paper by S. Kaufmann, we introduce a notion of conjunction of two conditional events and then we analyze it in the setting of coherence. We give a representation of the conjoined conditional and we show that this new object is a conditional random quantity, whose set of possible values normally contains the probabilities assessed for the two conditional events. We examine some cases of logical dependencies, where the conjunction is a conditional event; moreover, we give the lower and upper bounds on the conjunction. We also examine an apparent paradox concerning stochastic independence which can actually be explained in terms of uncorrelation. We briefly introduce the notions of disjunction and iterated conditioning and we show that the usual probabilistic properties still hold

Geological map, balanced and restored cross-sections, and 3D geological model of the Monte Fema area, Umbria-Marche Apennines (Italy)

The Mt. Fema area is located within the 1:50,000 scale Sheet 325-Visso of the CARG project, in the Umbria-Marche Apennines. Here, inherited pre-orogenic deformation and multi-layered mechanical stratigraphy affect mountain belt evolution and cause along-and across-strike changes in structural architecture. Further complexity is caused by post-orogenic extensional tectonics dissecting the fold and thrust belt. In this work, we combined classical field methodologies with digital mapping and drone surveys to produce a 1:10,000 geological map of the Mt. Fema area. The resulting map was integrated with a 10 m-cell size DEM in a 3D environment to construct four balanced cross-sections that were used to document structural style and stratigraphic variations. One section was restored to quantify the amount of deformation related to both Neogene orogenic shortening and multiple extensional phases affecting the area. Ultimately, we built a 3D geological model to investigate the subsurface geometrical arrangement of strata and faults of different generations, thus the overall structural architecture of the fold and thrust belt. According to our interpretation, the Mt. Fema thrust system is characterised by relatively limited displacement (cumulative dip separation ranging from-100 m to the north in Val di Tazza to-500 m to the south in Valnerina). Reactivation of inherited normal faults was likely precluded because of their unfavourable orientation with respect to W-dipping thrusts. Inherited basin structure and mechanical stratigraphy govern folding by buckling mechanism, which in turn controls the locus of thrust propagation. Normal faults dissect the crestal region of the Mt. Fema anticline. These structures do not show evidence of surface faulting during recent seismic sequences, although earthquake epicentres fall within the study area. Our work provides new insights into the 3D structural architecture, timing, and kinematics of a key sector of the Umbria-Marche Apennines, with implications for a better understanding of the role of structural inheritance and subsequent extensional tectonics in the evolution of fold and thrust belts

Mapping and assessment of ecosystems and their services. Urban ecosystems

Action 5 of the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 requires member states to Map and Assess the state of Ecosystems and their Services (MAES). This report provides guidance for mapping and assessment of urban ecosystems. The MAES urban pilot is a collaboration between the European Commission, the European Environment Agency, volunteering Member States and cities, and stakeholders. Its ultimate goal is to deliver a knowledge base for policy and management of urban ecosystems by analysing urban green infrastructure, condition of urban ecosystems and ecosystem services. This report presents guidance for mapping urban ecosystems and includes an indicator framework to assess the condition of urban ecosystems and urban ecosystem services. The scientific framework of mapping and assessment is designed to support in particular urban planning policy and policy on green infrastructure at urban, metropolitan and regional scales. The results are based on the following different sources of information: a literature survey of 54 scientific articles, an online-survey (on urban ecosystems, related policies and planning instruments and with participation of 42 cities), ten case studies (Portugal: Cascais, Oeiras, Lisbon; Italy: Padua, Trento, Rome; The Netherlands: Utrecht; Poland: Poznań; Spain: Barcelona; Norway: Oslo), and a two-day expert workshop. The case studies constituted the core of the MAES urban pilot. They provided real examples and applications of how mapping and assessment can be organized to support policy; on top, they provided the necessary expertise to select a set of final indicators for condition and ecosystem services. Urban ecosystems or cities are defined here as socio-ecological systems which are composed of green infrastructure and built infrastructure. Urban green infrastructure (GI) is understood in this report as the multi-functional network of urban green spaces situated within the boundary of the urban ecosystem. Urban green spaces are the structural components of urban GI. This study has shown that there is a large scope for urban ecosystem assessments. Firstly, urban policies increasingly use urban green infrastructure and nature-based solutions in their planning process. Secondly, an increasing amount of data at multiple spatial scales is becoming available to support these policies, to provide a baseline, and to compare or benchmark cities with respect to the extent and management of the urban ecosystem. Concrete examples are given on how to delineate urban ecosystems, how to choose an appropriate spatial scale, and how to map urban ecosystems based on a combination of national or European datasets (including Urban Atlas) and locally collected information (e.g., location of trees). Also examples of typologies for urban green spaces are presented. This report presents an indicator framework which is composed of indicators to assess for urban ecosystem condition and for urban ecosystem services. These are the result of a rigorous selection process and ensure consistent mapping and assessment across Europe. The MAES urban pilot will continue with work on the interface between research and policy. The framework presented in this report needs to be tested and validated across Europe, e.g. on its applicability at city scale, on how far the methodology for measuring ecosystem condition and ecosystem service delivery in urban areas can be used to assess urban green infrastructure and nature-based solutions

Effects of cadmium and phenanthrene mixtures on aquatic fungi and microbially mediated leaf litter decomposition

This version does not correspond to the published one. To access the final version go to: http://www.springerlink.com/content/t8t302617003m078/Urbanization and industrial activities have contributed to widespread contamination by metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, but the combined effects of these toxics on aquatic biota and processes are poorly understood. We examined the effects of cadmium (Cd) and phenanthrene on the activity and diversity of fungi associated with decomposing leaf litter in streams. Leaves of Alnus glutinosa were immersed for 10 days in an unpolluted low-order stream in northwest Portugal to allow microbial colonization. Leaves were then exposed in microcosms for 14 days to Cd (0.06–4.5 mg L−1) and phenanthrene (0.2 mg L−1) either alone or in mixture. A total of 19 aquatic hyphomycete species were found sporulating on leaves during the whole study. The dominant species was Articulospora tetracladia, followed by Alatospora pulchella, Clavatospora longibrachiata, and Tetrachaetum elegans. Exposure to Cd and phenanthrene decreased the contribution of A. tetracladia to the total conidial production, whereas it increased that of A. pulchella. Fungal diversity, assessed as denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis fingerprinting or conidial morphology, was decreased by the exposure to Cd and/or phenanthrene. Moreover, increased Cd concentrations decreased leaf decomposition and fungal reproduction but did not inhibit fungal biomass production. Exposure to phenanthrene potentiated the negative effects of Cd on fungal diversity and activity, suggesting that the co-occurrence of these stressors may pose additional risk to aquatic biodiversity and stream ecosystem functioning.The Portuguese Foundation for the Science and Technology supported this work (POCI/MAR/56964/2004) and S. Duarte (SFRH/BPD/47574/2008