SCORE2-Diabetes: 10-year cardiovascular risk estimation in type 2 diabetes in Europe

Aims: To develop and validate a recalibrated prediction model (SCORE2-Diabetes) to estimate the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 2 diabetes in Europe. Methods and results: SCORE2-Diabetes was developed by extending SCORE2 algorithms using individual-participant data from four large-scale datasets comprising 229 460 participants (43 706 CVD events) with type 2 diabetes and without previous CVD. Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models were used including conventional risk factors (i.e. age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total, and HDL-cholesterol), as well as diabetes-related variables (i.e. age at diabetes diagnosis, glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c] and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]). Models were recalibrated to CVD incidence in four European risk regions. External validation included 217 036 further individuals (38 602 CVD events), and showed good discrimination, and improvement over SCORE2 (C-index change from 0.009 to 0.031). Regional calibration was satisfactory. SCORE2-Diabetes risk predictions varied several-fold, depending on individuals' levels of diabetes-related factors. For example, in the moderate-risk region, the estimated 10-year CVD risk was 11% for a 60-year-old man, non-smoker, with type 2 diabetes, average conventional risk factors, HbA1c of 50 mmol/mol, eGFR of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 60 years. By contrast, the estimated risk was 17% in a similar man, with HbA1c of 70 mmol/mol, eGFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 50 years. For a woman with the same characteristics, the risk was 8% and 13%, respectively. Conclusion: SCORE2-Diabetes, a new algorithm developed, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of CVD in individuals with type 2 diabetes, enhances identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe

Precise regression benchmarking with random effects: Improving Mono benchmark results

Abstract. Benchmarking as a method of assessing software performance is known to suffer from random fluctuations that distort the observed performance. In this paper, we focus on the fluctuations caused by compilation. We show that the design of a benchmarking experiment must reflect the existence of the fluctuations if the performance observed during the experiment is to be representative of reality. We present a new statistical model of a benchmark experiment that reflects the presence of the fluctuations in compilation, execution and measurement. The model describes the observed performance and makes it possible to calculate the optimum dimensions of the experiment that yield the best precision within a given amount of time. Using a variety of benchmarks, we evaluate the model within the context of regression benchmarking. We show that the model significantly decreases the number of erroneously detected performance changes in regression benchmarking. Key words: performance evaluation, benchmark precision, random effects, regression benchmarking.

Quality Assurance in Performance: Evaluating Mono Benchmark Results

Performance is an important aspect of software quality. To prevent performance degradation during software development, performance can be monitored and software modifications that damage performance can be reverted or optimized. Regression benchmarking provides means for an automated monitoring of performance, yielding a list of software modifications potentially associated with performance changes

i0091-7613-36-1-3.indd

ABSTRACT We modeled global positioning system measurements of crustal velocity along a N13°E profi le across the southern Adria microplate and south-central Dinarides mountain belt using a one-dimensional elastic dislocation model. We assumed a N77°W fault strike orthogonal to the average azimuth of the measured velocities, but we used a constrained random search algorithm minimizing misfi t to the velocities to determine all other parameters of the model. The model fault plane reaches the surface seaward of mapped SW-verging thrusts of Eocene and perhaps Neogene age along the coastal areas of southern Dalmatia, consistent with SW-migrating deformation in an active fold-and-thrust belt. P-wave tomography shows a NE-dipping high-velocity slab to ~160 km depth, which reaches the surface as Adria, dips gently beneath the foreland, and becomes steep beneath the Dinarides topographic high. The thrust plane is located directly above the shallowly dipping part of the slab. The pattern of precisely located seismicity is broadly consistent with both the tomography and geodesy; deeper earthquakes (down to ~70 km) correlate spatially with the slab, and shallower earthquakes are broadly clustered around the geodetically inferred thrust plane. The model fault geometry and loading rate, ages of subaerially exposed thrusts in the fold-and-thrust belt, and the length of subducted slab are all consistent with Adria-Eurasia collision involving uninterrupted subduction of southern Adria mantle lithosphere beneath Eurasia since Eocene time

School management innovation and principal support systems: toward the agenda for Croatian school reform

In this paper, we discuss if the current educational management practices in Croatian schools are in line with the constructivist prescriptions and what is their relationship with the available principal support tools. Our research is based on previous empirical results, related to the perceived needs of school principals for training and support. Namely, in 2011, the surveyed school principals required additional competencies to be developed in the fields of school marketing and management. At that time, the primary school principals are being surveyed, related to their managerial practices and the obtained results are interpreted in the context of the already announced, comprehensive school reform in Croatia, designed according to the constructivist educational theories. The empirical results demonstrate that the managerial practices of Croatian primary schools are not compatible with the constructivist theory of education. One group of principals (27.6%) have adequate delegation skills and focus on the specific fields of project management and school marketing, while the majority demonstrate one (or several) forms of ineffective practices. There is limited empirical evidence of the statistically significant differences in the usage of principal support tools/approaches, although the specific usage patterns have been identified

Syn-convergent extension observed using the RETREAT GPS network, northern Apennines, Italy

We present crustal deformation results from a geodetic experiment (Retreating-Trench, Extension, and Accretion Tectonics (RETREAT)) focused on the northern Apennines orogen in Italy. The experiment centers on 33 benchmarks measured with GPS annually or more frequently between 2003 and 2007, supplemented by data from an additional older set of 6 campaign observations from stations in northern Croatia, and 187 continuous GPS stations within and around northern Italy. In an attempt to achieve the best possible estimates for rates and their uncertainties, we estimate and filter common mode signals and noise components using the continuous stations and apply these corrections to the entire data set, including the more temporally limited campaign time series. The filtered coordinate time series data are used to estimate site velocity. We also estimate spatially variable seasonal site motions for stations with sufficient data. The RMS scatter of residual time series are generally near 1 mm and 4 mm, horizontal and vertical, respectively, for continuous and most of the new campaign stations, but scatter is slightly higher for some of the older campaign data. Velocity uncertainties are below 1 mm/yr for all but one of the stations. Maximum rates of site motion within the orogen exceed 3 mm/yr (directed NE) relative to stable Eurasia. This motion is accommodated by extension within the southwestern and central portions of the orogen, and shortening across the foreland thrust belt to the northeast of the range. The data set is consistent with contemporaneous extension and shortening at nearly equal rates. The northern Apennines block moves northeast faster than the Northern Adria microplate. Convergence between the Northern Apennines block and the Northern Adria microplate is accommodated across a narrow zone that coincides with the northeastern Apennines range front. Extension occurs directly above an intact vertically dipping slab inferred by previous authors from seismic tomography. The observed crustal deformation is consistent with a buried dislocation model for crustal faulting, but associations between crustal motion and seismically imaged mantle structure may also provide new insights on mantle dynamics