A Duhamel Integral Based Approach to Identify an Unknown Radiation Term in a Heat Equation with Non-linear Boundary Condition

In this paper, we consider the determination of an unknown radiation term in the nonlinear boundary condition of a linear heat equation from an overspecified condition. First we study the existence and uniqueness of the solution via an auxiliary problem. Then a numerical method consisting of zeroth-, first-, and second-order Tikhonov regularization method to the matrix form of Duhamel\u27s principle for solving the inverse heat conduction problem (IHCP) using temperature data containing significant noise is presented. The stability and accuracy of the scheme presented is evaluated by comparison with the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) method. Some numerical experiments confirm the utility of this algorithm as the results are in good agreement with the exact data

The comparison of LC50 of clove essence and MS222 in Acipenser persicus, Oncorhynchus mykiss and Cyprinus carpio

The LC50 of two anaesthetic agents, clove essence and MS222, on the cultivated fish species, Acipenser persicus, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Cyprinus curpio were estimated. 640 samples of above mentioned species were used exposing anaesthetic agents for 2 minutes.LC50 of clove essence and MS222 for sturgeon estimated 297 and 291 ppm, for common carp was 271 and 272 ppm; and for rainbow trout Was 199 and 207 pmm, respectively. Significant difference was found only between LC50 of MS222 in rainbow trout with LC50 of both agents in two other species. Also, the results showed that there is no significant difference on poisoning of two applied drugs in all above mentioned species; with comparing different species, rainbow trout had lower tolerance to both anesthetics

Surfactant-enhanced Bioremediation of n-Hexadecane-contaminated Soil Using Halo-tolerant Bacteria Paenibacillus glucanolyticus sp. Strain T7-AHV Isolated from Marine Environment

A halo-tolerant bacterial strain Paenibacillus glucanolyticus sp. strain T7-AHV isolated from marine environment was used for bioremediation of n-hexadecane-contaminated soil. Soil/water ratio, initial inoculums volume, surfactant addition, n-hexadecane concentration, and salinity were investigated. The possibility of biosurfactant production by isolated strain was also studied, and the results demonstrated that it was not a biosurfactant producer, based on measurement of the surface tension of culture broth. Both tween 80 and rhamnolipid enhanced the biodegradation of n-hexadecane significantly up to 44 and 46 %, respectively. A biodegradation rate of 39.7 % was observed at salinity level of up to 2 %, and the biodegradation efficiency decreased significantly at higher salinity concentrations. A natural hydrocarbon-contaminated soil sample with total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) concentration of 1437 mg kg–1 was subjected to bioremediation using the selected conditions of operational parameters, and a biodegradation rate of 22.1 % was obtained

Effects of weight on osmoregulatory ability of Salmo trutta caspius juveniles

Salmo trutta caspius is a commercial migratory fish species in the Caspian Sea. Over fishing and deterioration of natural spawning grounds of the species are two major causes depressing stocks of the fish in the Sea. Thus, artificial breeding and release of salmon juveniles into the Caspian Sea is now considered an urgent need towards the rehabilitation of the stocks of the fish. This study was conducted in early 2004 to determine the ideal weight for the release of salmon fry in order to increase fishery return coefficients in the species. For this research, we used facilities of the Marine Fisheries Breeding and Research Center in Ghazian, along the coastal areas of the Bandar Anzali. Salmon juveniles used in this study belonged to the same generation. Fishes belongirig to different weight classes (5, 10, 15 and 20g) were selected in a random design and stocked in two groups of sea water at 7% salinity and freshwater. Osmosis was studied using blood samples collected at 0, 3, 6, 12, 24, 72, 168 and 240 hours. Heparin tubes were used for sampling blood which was centrifuged to separate blood plasma. Osmotic pressure was determined using osmometer. Statistical analysis of the results on variations in osmotic pressure showed that after 10 days of stocking fish in seawater (7%), fishes in all weight classes were capable of osmoregulation. Also fishes in weight classes 10, 15 and 20g were capable of osmore-gulation in the Caspian Sea water

Echocardiographic evaluation of mitral geometry in functional mitral regurgitation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Objectives</p> <p>We sought to evaluate the geometric changes of the mitral leaflets, local and global LV remodeling in patients with left ventricular dysfunction and varying degrees of Functional mitral regurgitation (FMR).</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Functional mitral regurgitation (FMR) occurs as a consequence of systolic left ventricular (LV) dysfunction caused by ischemic or nonischemic cardiomyopathy. Mitral valve repair in ischemic MR is one of the most controversial topic in surgery and proper repairing requires an understanding of its mechanisms, as the exact mechanism of FMR are not well defined.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>136 consecutive patients mean age of 55 with systolic LV dysfunction and FMR underwent complete echocardiography and after assessing MR severity, LV volumes, Ejection Fraction, LV sphericity index, C-Septal distance, Mitral valve annulus, Interpapillary distance, Tenting distance and Tenting area were obtained.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There was significant association between MR severity and echocardiogarphic indices (all p values < 0.001). Severe MR occurred more frequently in dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) patients compared to ischemic patients, (p < 0.001). Based on the model, only Mitral valve tenting distance (TnD) (OR = 22.11, CI 95%: 14.18 – 36.86, p < 0.001) and Interpapillary muscle distance (IPMD), (OR = 6.53, CI 95%: 2.10 – 10.23, p = 0.001) had significant associations with MR severity.</p> <p>Mitral annular dimensions and area, C-septal distance and sphericity index, although greater in patients with severe regurgitation, did not significantly contribute to FMR severity.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Degree of LV enlargement and dysfunction were not primary determinants of FMR severity, therefore local LV remodeling and mitral valve apparatus deformation are the strongest predictors of functional MR severity.</p

The effect of low level laser on condylar growth during mandibular advancement in rabbits

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>It has been shown that Low Level Laser (LLL) has a positive effect on bone formation. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of low level laser on condylar growth during mandibular advancement in rabbits.</p> <p>Materials and methods</p> <p>Continuous forward mandibular advancement was performed in fourteen male Albino rabbits with the mean age of 8 weeks and the mean weight of 1.5 ± 0.5 kg, with acrylic inclined planes. The rabbits were randomly assigned into two groups after 4 weeks. LLL (KLO3: wave length 630 nm) was irradiated at 3 points around the TMJ, through the skin in the first group. The exposure was performed for 3 minutes at each point (a total of 9 minutes) once a day for 3 weeks. The control group was not exposed to any irradiation. The rabbits in both groups were sacrificed after two months and the histological evaluation of TMJ was performed to compare fibrous tissue, cartilage, and new bone formation in condylar region in both groups. Disc displacement was also detected in both groups. Student's t-test, Exact Fisher and Chi square tests were used for the statistical analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The formation of fibrous tissue was significantly lower, while bone formation was significantly greater in lased group as compared with control group. The thickness of cartilage did not differ significantly between two groups.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Irradiation of LLL (KLO3) during mandibular advancement in rabbits, increases bone formation in condylar region, while neither increase in the cartilage thickness nor fibrous tissues was observed.</p

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic:a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation.<br/

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100:a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.FundingBill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation