Drug Policy in Hungary: Current Trends and Future Prospects

The authors consider the theoretical and applied problems of preventing illicit traffic in drugs and psychotropic substances in Hungary in the legal and criminological aspects. The relevance of the study is determined by the fact that the Hungary's third drug strategy expires in 2020 (2013-2020), so a new strategy needs to be developed, but it is not yet known what guidelines it will have, what priorities will be offered to set in it.The study was conducted with a view to considering the legal framework for the prevention of illicit traffic of drugs and psychotropic substances and the problem of its improvement in Hungary. To achieve this goal, the authors analysed statistics on drug use, types and quantity of drugs seized by law enforcement agencies for the last five years. The authors give a description of the drug situation, territorial features of drug use and a multilevel system of measures to counter illegal traffic in drugs and psychotropic substances at the national level. The authors pay special attention to the age and gender characteristics of drug use, which makes it possible to identify the most vulnerable groups, which should be supported by state preventive programs. The authors also analysed data on mortality from drug use and concluded that from 2010 onwards methadone and other non-opiate drugs predominated in death.Based on the results of the study, current trends in drug use in Hungary were summarized. The results obtained are important for the development of an anti-drug strategy and the improvement of legislation, as well as for the prevention of law enforcement agencies, both Hungary and other European countries

A 19. századi magyar nemzetépítés elemeinek átértékelése új szempontok és új források alapján = Rethinking Nineteenth-century Nation-building in Hungary: New Perceptions, New Sources

Az OTKA támogatásával létrejött tudományos iskola a történettudomány nemzetközi fejlődése során előtérbe került új megközelítéseket alkalmazva elemezte a magyarországi nemzetépítés folyamatát néhány olyan konkrét részterületen, amelyek eddig a nemzeti problematika szempontjából háttérben maradtak a magyar történettudományban. A 19. századi tankönyvirodalom, az udvari kultúra és a színpadi szórakoztatás, a politikai röpiratok, a gazdaságtörténet, a demográfiai adatok, a divat, illetve a kollektív reprezentációk egyaránt vizsgálódásunk terepéül szolgáltak. A mai elméleti koncepciók szerint a nemzetet elsősorban diskurzusként gondoltuk el. Kutatásunk a modern nemzetet létrehozó diskurzusokat mint a korabeli társadalom eltérő nézeteinek és praxisainak különböző termékeit helyezte előtérbe. Ennek fényében nem kisebb történeti probléma vált láthatóvá, mint magának a nemzetépítés folyamatának a társadalmi beágyazottsága. Rámutattunk ugyanis arra az ellentmondásra, amely a nemzetről szóló homogenizáló diskurzusok és az őket létrehozó komplex társadalmi háttér között feszült. | The scientific school supported by OTKA, applying the most recent results of the international historical sciences, analyzed the process of the Hungarian nation-bulding on some concrete fields that have been partially neglicted by the Hungarian historiography so far. The history manuels, the royal court culture, the popular entertainment, the political pamphlets, the economic history, the fashion, the usage of demographic data and the collective representations were the main fields of our collective research. According to the most recent theoretical frameworks, we considered the nation primarily as a discourse. Our research approached the nation as the product of the various judgments and practices of the contemporary societies. Throughout that approach, a crucial historical problem, the social embeddedness of the nation-building process became visible. We tried to point out the contradiction between the homogenizing discourses about the nation and the complex social background that produced these discourses

Increased gene sampling strengthens support for higher-level groups within leaf-mining moths and relatives (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae)

Background: Researchers conducting molecular phylogenetic studies are frequently faced with the decision of what to do when weak branch support is obtained for key nodes of importance. As one solution, the researcher may choose to sequence additional orthologous genes of appropriate evolutionary rate for the taxa in the study. However, generating large, complete data matrices can become increasingly difficult as the number of characters increases. A few empirical studies have shown that augmenting genes even for a subset of taxa can improve branch support. However, because each study differs in the number of characters and taxa, there is still a need for additional studies that examine whether incomplete sampling designs are likely to aid at increasing deep node resolution. We target Gracillariidae, a Cretaceous-age (similar to 100 Ma) group of leaf-mining moths to test whether the strategy of adding genes for a subset of taxa can improve branch support for deep nodes. We initially sequenced ten genes (8,418 bp) for 57 taxa that represent the major lineages of Gracillariidae plus outgroups. After finding that many deep divergences remained weakly supported, we sequenced eleven additional genes (6,375 bp) for a 27-taxon subset. We then compared results from different data sets to assess whether one sampling design can be favored over another. The concatenated data set comprising all genes and all taxa and three other data sets of different taxon and gene sub-sampling design were analyzed with maximum likelihood. Each data set was subject to five different models and partitioning schemes of non-synonymous and synonymous changes. Statistical significance of non-monophyly was examined with the Approximately Unbiased (AU) test. Results: Partial augmentation of genes led to high support for deep divergences, especially when non-synonymous changes were analyzed alone. Increasing the number of taxa without an increase in number of characters led to lower bootstrap support; increasing the number of characters without increasing the number of taxa generally increased bootstrap support. More than three-quarters of nodes were supported with bootstrap values greater than 80% when all taxa and genes were combined. Gracillariidae, Lithocolletinae + Leucanthiza, and Acrocercops and Parectopa groups were strongly supported in nearly every analysis. Gracillaria group was well supported in some analyses, but less so in others. We find strong evidence for the exclusion of Douglasiidae from Gracillarioidea sensu Davis and Robinson (1998). Our results strongly support the monophyly of a G.B.R.Y. clade, a group comprised of Gracillariidae + Bucculatricidae + Roeslerstammiidae + Yponomeutidae, when analyzed with non-synonymous changes only, but this group was frequently split when synonymous and non-synonymous substitutions were analyzed together. Conclusions: 1) Partially or fully augmenting a data set with more characters increased bootstrap support for particular deep nodes, and this increase was dramatic when non-synonymous changes were analyzed alone. Thus, the addition of sites that have low levels of saturation and compositional heterogeneity can greatly improve results. 2) Gracillarioidea, as defined by Davis and Robinson (1998), clearly do not include Douglasiidae, and changes to current classification will be required. 3) Gracillariidae were monophyletic in all analyses conducted, and nearly all species can be placed into one of six strongly supported clades though relationships among these remain unclear. 4) The difficulty in determining the phylogenetic placement of Bucculatricidae is probably attributable to compositional heterogeneity at the third codon position. From our tests for compositional heterogeneity and strong bootstrap values obtained when synonymous changes are excluded, we tentatively conclude that Bucculatricidae is closely related to Gracillariidae + Roeslerstammiidae + Yponomeutidae

Credit to SMEs? Robust Lending Decisions with Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis

This project’s commissioner, the head of ING’s emerging markets credit trading desk developed a loan structure called Revenue Participation Loan to fit the needs of SMEs in emerging markets. He now wants to combine this new product with innovation in his approach to uncertainty. With these types of loans SMEs agree to pay a fixed percentage of their revenues (a ‘cut’) to the lender until an agreed multiple of the principal is reached. The advantage of this structure is that it tolerates the sales fluctuations, but the implication is that it is unknown how long it will take to repay the loan. In the face of this uncertainty the bank needs analytical tools to select the best candidates and make robust lending decisions. No analytics can exactly predict the future. However, a good model-based analysis usually leads to better decisions than flipping a coin. But that too depends on good quality models and on how they are treated. A good addition to the well-established accounting models seems to be System Dynamics (SD) modelling. SD’s dynamic approach allows building and simulating stock-flow models that better represent the non-linear systems of companies. To make sense of the uncertainties in these models the Exploratory Modelling and Analysis (EMA) tools are proposed. The objective of this project is to investigate in what ways SD modelling combined with an exploratory approach could support lending decisions and monitoring of an SME credit portfolio. Traditional business plans aim to create the model that most accurately predicts the future performance of the company. Lending decisions based on such best-guess models are problematic given the deep uncertainties inherent in the mid- to long-term future. Opposed to this ‘consolidative’ approach, an exploratory study aims to systematically analyse a wide range of plausible future scenarios. The aim becomes to better understand the nature and implications of uncertainties and to devise robust measures that perform well over a wide range of possible futures. Such analyses can be supported by existing EMA tools also developed at TU Delft. Two case studies based on existing loans are presented to explore how SD modelling of SMEs could be performed and to illustrate the capabilities offered by the EMA workbench. Although these cases featured two very different companies a relatively similar framing of the problem can be recognized: the availability of cash balance is a critical enabler of these companies’ growth. Based on the SD models and their uncertainties considered the EMA tools can plot the range of scenarios that can occur. The most important indicator from the point of view of the bank is the time it takes to repay the loan. Using plausible uncertainty ranges for each input parameter the possible outcomes range from around 4 years to infinite repayment time. Feature selection algorithms then can be used to understand what are the most influential model parameters determining this outcome. Further analysis can reveal what combinations of uncertainty ranges will likely lead to the most (un)desirable scenarios. Finally, a robust optimization tool is introduced that can determine the optimal loan size and cut taking into account the uncertainty surrounding key exogenous variables. The study performed on the two cases could be performed during the assessment of the companies that are willing to receive a loan. However, this has some implications on the nature of the assessment. It became clear that more information needs to be asked and the nature of questions has to be broadened to what is commonly considered ‘soft information’. Although SME managers might not be used to it, explicit, clear and quantitative expression of causal relationships is at the core of SD modelling. Historical data records and a skilled modeller can make the inquiry manageable. The detailed modelling might be demanding for both the bank and SMEs, but the effort can pay off when more company models are analysed together. A combined analysis is envisioned in which the company models are embedded into the relevant macroeconomic environment, therefore allowing a consistent portfolio-level analysis. A higher level of detail allows for broader detection of weak signals of change and can also lead to more efficient monitoring through shared understanding between bank and company. It is recommended that the steps presented in the case studies are performed for a real company assessment to gain real-time experience with the EMA tools. The insights gained should be used to continually develop and improve the process of application. Despite its added value, the EMA approach and analytic tools probably cannot replace the need for good human judgement. But as a supporting companion for decision-making, they can give a sharper and more colourful picture of the uncertain future.Policy AnalysisTechnology, Policy and Managemen

The effect of variable turbulent intensities on the distribution of zooplankton in the shallow, large Lake Balaton (Hungary)

The influence of current velocity on zooplankton organisms is manifold. Moderate current velocity is beneficial for zooplankton, but through various mechanisms too high a current velocity can have detrimental effects. We examined how current velocity acts on zooplankton in Lake Balaton at different levels and found a highly significant, negative relation between current velocity and the density of zooplankton assemblages. Of the studied assemblages, Daphnia galeata  ×  cucullata and Eudiaptomus gracilis exhibited the greatest sensitivity to the degree of current velocity. During calm weather, when the water surface was calm too, nocturnal migration was observed for both Daphnia galeata  ×  cucullata and Eudiaptomus gracilis. We demonstrated that the vertical migration of these two species started before the storm as the usual nocturnal migration, but during the storm the regular pattern was confused