New damage curves and multimodel analysis suggest lower optimal temperature

Economic analyses of global climate change have been criticized for their poor representation of climate change damages. Here we develop and apply aggregate damage functions in three economic Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with different degrees of complexity. The damage functions encompass a wide but still incomplete set of climate change impacts based on physical impact models. We show that with medium estimates for damage functions, global damages are in the range of 10% to 12% of GDP by 2100 in a baseline scenario with 3 °C temperature change, and about 2% in a well-below 2 °C scenario. These damages are much higher than previous estimates in benefit-cost studies, resulting in optimal temperatures below 2 °C with central estimates of damages and discount rates. Moreover, we find a benefit-cost ratio of 1.5 to 3.9, even without considering damages that could not be accounted for, such as biodiversity losses, health and tipping points

An integrated approach for the estimation of agricultural drought costs

This study proposes a novel method to assess the overall economic effects of agricultural droughts using a coupled agronomic-economic approach that accounts for the direct and indirect impacts of this hazard in the economy. The proposed methodology is applied to Italy, where years showing different drought severity levels were analysed. Agricultural drought stress was measured using the fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR). Using a comprehensive, field-level dataset on agricultural yields, fAPAR-based statistical models were applied to major Italian crops and direct crop productivity impacts were estimated. Local-level, crop-dependent productivity shocks were fed into a regionalised Computable General Equilibrium model specifically calibrated for the Italian economy. Direct and indirect aggregate impacts after allowing for inter-regional trade and input reallocation were obtained. Total estimated damages ranged from 0.55 to 1.75 billion euro, depending on the overall drought severity experienced, while regional losses showed large spatial variability. Although most of the losses were concentrated on agriculture, other related sectors, such as food industry manufacturing and wholesale services, were also substantially affected. Moreover, our simulations suggested the presence of a land-use substitution effect from less to more drought-resistant crops following a drought. This study sheds light on the characterisation of the total damages caused by droughts while provides a tool with applicability in the implementation of drought risk management plans and the evaluation of drought management policies

Perspectives of the encapsulation technology in the nursery activity of Citrus

The genetic and phytosanitary certification has to guarantee the quality of the propagation material also in Citrus. Traditional methods can be assisted by the techniques of in vitro culture, which are fundamental for the mass production of high quality plants. The encapsulation technology represents an innovative tool to combine the advantages of micropropagation with handling ease, storability, reduced size of the propagules, mechanization potentiality, transportability of the gamic seeds. In this work somatic embryos obtained from in vitro anther culture of the cultivar Mandarino Tardivo di Ciaculli (Citrus reticulata Blanco) were encapsulated in a sodium alginate matrix and synthetic seeds were obtained. The conversion ability in non sterile conditions of the synthetic seeds has been evaluated and the addition to the artificial endosperm of the fungicide Thiophanate-methyl did not limit the further development into plantlets of the encapsulated somatic embryos sown on paper (control) and on perlite. A high level of viability has been observed and conversion in ex vitro conditions on substrates similar to those used in the traditional nursery structures (perlite and paper-filter) has been obtained