Credit risk prediction in an imbalanced social lending environment

© 2018, the Authors. Credit risk prediction is an effective way of evaluating whether a potential borrower will repay a loan, particularly in peer-to-peer lending where class imbalance problems are prevalent. However, few credit risk prediction models for social lending consider imbalanced data and, further, the best resampling technique to use with imbalanced data is still controversial. In an attempt to address these problems, this paper presents an empirical comparison of various combinations of classifiers and resampling techniques within a novel risk assessment methodology that incorporates imbalanced data. The credit predictions from each combination are evaluated with a G-mean measure to avoid bias towards the majority class, which has not been considered in similar studies. The results reveal that combining random forest and random under-sampling may be an effective strategy for calculating the credit risk associated with loan applicants in social lending markets

Tuberculosis Status and Coinfection of Pulmonary Fungal Infections in Patients Referred to Reference Laboratory of Health Centers Ghaemshahr City during 2007-2017

Background: Pulmonary tuberculosis is one of the most important health concerns. Pulmonary fungal infections have clinical and radiological characteristics similar to tuberculosis which may be easily misdiagnosed as tuberculosis. This study aimed to evaluate tuberculosis (TB) status and coinfection of TB with pulmonary fungal infections in patients referred to reference laboratory of health centers Ghaemshahr city during 2007-2017. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted during eleven years, between 2007-2017, on 3577 patients with suspected TB referred to health centers of Ghaemshahr City. For isolation, sputum smear preparation and Ziehl-Neelson staining in companying with microscopy direct observation and KOH 10 + white Calcofluor staining was used. The culture of fungi was performed on Sabouraud Dextrose agar, Czapek and chrome agar media. Then, data were analyzed using SPSS software (version 16) through Student's t-test, Fisher test, and Odds Ratio. P values <0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results: Of 3577 patients, 10731 smears were prepared, 3.6 (n=130) of patients were identified as smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis, 86.4 (n=3090) were smear negative and 10 (n=357) drug-resistant TB. The mean age of patients was 48±1.8 years. With increasing age, the prevalence of TB has increased which was statistically significant (P value <0.05). Prevalence of tuberculosis in the age group over than 57 years in males and females had an ascending trend. Amongst the positive tuberculosis patients, 16/130 cases (12.3) had the coinfection of TB with fungi microorganisms. Conclusion: Our findings showed the coinfection of fungi agents in patients with tuberculosis that should be considered

Gender-specific 30-day outcomes after carotid endarterectomy and carotid artery stenting in the Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Registry

ObjectiveAlthough the optimal treatment of carotid stenosis remains unclear, available data suggest that women have higher risk of adverse events after carotid revascularization. We used data from the Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Registry to determine the effect of gender on outcomes after carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and carotid artery stenting (CAS).MethodsThere were 9865 patients (40.6% women) who underwent CEA (n = 6492) and CAS (n = 3373). The primary end point was a composite of death, stroke, and myocardial infarction at 30 days.ResultsThere was no difference in age and ethnicity between genders, but men were more likely to be symptomatic (41.6% vs 38.6%; P < .003). There was a higher prevalence of hypertension and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in women, whereas men had a higher prevalence of coronary artery disease, history of myocardial infarction, and smoking history. For disease etiology in CAS, restenosis was more common in women (28.7% vs 19.7%; P < .0001), and radiation was higher in men (6.2% vs 2.6%; P < .0001). Comparing by gender, there were no statistically significant differences in the primary end point for CEA (women, 4.07%; men, 4.06%) or CAS (women, 6.69%; men, 6.80%). There remains no difference after stratification by symptomatology and multivariate risk adjustment.ConclusionsIn this large, real-world analysis, women and men demonstrated similar results after CEA or CAS. These data suggest that, contrary to previous reports, women do not have a higher risk of adverse events after carotid revascularization

Testosterone treatment is not associated with increased risk of adverse cardiovascular events: results from the Registry of Hypogonadism in Men (RHYME).

SummaryAims The aim of this study was to assess cardiovascular (CV) safety of testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) in a large, diverse cohort of European men with hypogonadism (HG). Methods The Registry of Hypogonadism in Men (RHYME) was designed as a multi-national, longitudinal disease registry of men diagnosed with hypogonadism (HG) at 25 clinical sites in six European countries. Data collection included a complete medical history, physical examination, blood sampling and patient questionnaires at multiple study visits over 2–3 years. Independent adjudication was performed on all mortalities and CV outcomes. Results Of 999 patients enrolled with clinically diagnosed HG, 750 (75%) initiated some form of TRT. Registry participants, including both treated and untreated patients, contributed 23 900 person-months (99.6% of the targeted) follow-up time. A total of 55 reported CV events occurred in 41 patients. Overall, five patients died of CV-related causes (3 on TRT, 2 untreated) and none of the deaths were adjudicated as treatment-related. The overall CV incidence rate was 1522 per 100 000 person-years. CV event rates for men receiving TRT were not statistically different from untreated men (P=.70). Regardless of treatment assignment, CV event rates were higher in older men and in those with increased CV risk factors or a prior history of CV events. Conclusions Age and prior CV history, not TRT use, were predictors of new-onset CV events in this multi-national, prospective hypogonadism registry

Imipenem resistance of Pseudomonas in pneumonia: a systematic literature review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pneumonia, and particularly nosocomial (NP) and ventilator-associated pneumonias (VAP), results in high morbidity and costs. NPs in particular are likely to be caused by <it>Pseudomonas aeruginosa </it>(PA), ~20% of which in observational studies are resistant to imipenem. We sought to identify the burden of PA imipenem resistance in pneumonia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a systematic literature review of randomized controlled trials (RCT) of imipenem treatment for pneumonia published in English between 1993 and 2008. We extracted study, population and treatment characteristics, and proportions caused by PA. Endpoints of interest were: PA resistance to initial antimicrobial treatment, clinical success, microbiologic eradication and on-treatment emergence of resistance of PA.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 46 studies identified, 20 (N = 4,310) included patients with pneumonia (imipenem 1,667, PA 251; comparator 1,661, PA 270). Seven were double blind, and 7 included US data. Comparator arms included a β-lactam (17, [penicillin 6, carbapenem 4, cephalosporin 7, monobactam 1]), aminoglycoside 2, vancomycin 1, and a fluoroquinolone 5; 5 employed double coverage. Thirteen focused exclusively on pneumonia and 7 included pneumonia and other diagnoses. Initial resistance was present in 14.6% (range 4.2-24.0%) of PA isolates in imipenem and 2.5% (range 0.0-7.4%) in comparator groups. Pooled clinical success rates for PA were 45.2% (range 0.0-72.0%) for imipenem and 74.9% (range 0.0-100.0%) for comparator regimens. Microbiologic eradication was achieved in 47.6% (range 0.0%-100.0%) of isolates in the imipenem and 52.8% (range 0.0%-100.0%) in the comparator groups. Resistance emerged in 38.7% (range 5.6-77.8%) PA isolates in imipenem and 21.9% (range 4.8-56.5%) in comparator groups.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In the 15 years of RCTs of imipenem for pneumonia, PA imipenem resistance rates are high, and PA clinical success and microbiologic eradication rates are directionally lower for imipenem than for comparators. Conversely, initial and treatment-emergent resistance is more likely with the imipenem than the comparator regimens.</p

Revisiting the Relationship Between Fault Detection,Test Adequacy Criteria, and Test Set Size

The research community has long recognized a complex interrelationship between test set size, test adequacy criteria, and test effectiveness in terms of fault detection. However, there is substantial confusion about the role and importance of controlling for test set size when assessing and comparing test adequacy criteria. This paper makes the following contributions: (1) A review of contradictory analyses of the relationship between fault detection, test suite size, and test adequacy criteria. Specifically, this paper addresses the supposed contradiction of prior work and explains why test suite size is neither a confounding variable, as previously suggested,nor an independent variable that should be experimentally manipulated. (2) An explication and discussion of the experimental design and sampling strategies of prior work, together with a discussion of conceptual and statistical problems, and specific guidelines for future work. (3) A methodology for comparing test-adequacy criteria on an equal basis, which accounts for test suite size by treating it as a covariate. (4) An empirical evaluation that compares the effectiveness of coverage-based and mutation-based testing to one another and random testing. Additionally, this paper proposes probabilistic coupling, a methodology for approximating the representativeness of a set of test goals for a given set of real fault

Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19: The REMAP-CAP COVID-19 Corticosteroid Domain Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Evidence regarding corticosteroid use for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited. Objective: To determine whether hydrocortisone improves outcome for patients with severe COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: An ongoing adaptive platform trial testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, for example, antiviral agents, corticosteroids, or immunoglobulin. Between March 9 and June 17, 2020, 614 adult patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled and randomized within at least 1 domain following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for respiratory or cardiovascular organ support at 121 sites in 8 countries. Of these, 403 were randomized to open-label interventions within the corticosteroid domain. The domain was halted after results from another trial were released. Follow-up ended August 12, 2020. Interventions: The corticosteroid domain randomized participants to a fixed 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg or 100 mg every 6 hours) (n = 143), a shock-dependent course (50 mg every 6 hours when shock was clinically evident) (n = 152), or no hydrocortisone (n = 108). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of ICU-based respiratory or cardiovascular support) within 21 days, where patients who died were assigned -1 day. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model that included all patients enrolled with severe COVID-19, adjusting for age, sex, site, region, time, assignment to interventions within other domains, and domain and intervention eligibility. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Results: After excluding 19 participants who withdrew consent, there were 384 patients (mean age, 60 years; 29% female) randomized to the fixed-dose (n = 137), shock-dependent (n = 146), and no (n = 101) hydrocortisone groups; 379 (99%) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The mean age for the 3 groups ranged between 59.5 and 60.4 years; most patients were male (range, 70.6%-71.5%); mean body mass index ranged between 29.7 and 30.9; and patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged between 50.0% and 63.5%. For the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively, the median organ support-free days were 0 (IQR, -1 to 15), 0 (IQR, -1 to 13), and 0 (-1 to 11) days (composed of 30%, 26%, and 33% mortality rates and 11.5, 9.5, and 6 median organ support-free days among survivors). The median adjusted odds ratio and bayesian probability of superiority were 1.43 (95% credible interval, 0.91-2.27) and 93% for fixed-dose hydrocortisone, respectively, and were 1.22 (95% credible interval, 0.76-1.94) and 80% for shock-dependent hydrocortisone compared with no hydrocortisone. Serious adverse events were reported in 4 (3%), 5 (3%), and 1 (1%) patients in the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with a 7-day fixed-dose course of hydrocortisone or shock-dependent dosing of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, resulted in 93% and 80% probabilities of superiority with regard to the odds of improvement in organ support-free days within 21 days. However, the trial was stopped early and no treatment strategy met prespecified criteria for statistical superiority, precluding definitive conclusions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707

Impact of species and antibiotic therapy of enterococcal peritonitis on 30-day mortality in critical care - An analysis of the OUTCOMEREA database

Introduction: Enterococcus species are associated with an increased morbidity in intraabdominal infections (IAI). However, their impact on mortality remains uncertain. Moreover, the influence on outcome of the appropriate or inappropriate status of initial antimicrobial therapy (IAT) is subjected to debate, except in septic shock. The aim of our study was to evaluate whether an IAT that did not cover Enterococcus spp. was associated with 30-day mortality in ICU patients presenting with IAI growing with Enterococcus spp. Material and methods: Retrospective analysis of French database OutcomeRea from 1997 to 2016. We included all patients with IAI with a peritoneal sample growing with Enterococcus. Primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Results: Of the 1017 patients with IAI, 76 (8%) patients were included. Thirty-day mortality in patients with inadequate IAT against Enterococcus was higher (7/18 (39%) vs 10/58 (17%), p = 0.05); however, the incidence of postoperative complications was similar. Presence of Enterococcus spp. other than E. faecalis alone was associated with a significantly higher mortality, even greater when IAT was inadequate. Main risk factors for having an Enterococcus other than E. faecalis alone were as follows: SAPS score on day 0, ICU-acquired IAI, and antimicrobial therapy within 3 months prior to IAI especially with third-generation cephalosporins. Univariate analysis found a higher hazard ratio of death with an Enterococcus other than E. faecalis alone that had an inadequate IAT (HR = 4.4 [1.3-15.3], p = 0.019) versus an adequate IAT (HR = 3.1 [1.0-10.0], p = 0.053). However, after adjusting for confounders (i.e., SAPS II and septic shock at IAI diagnosis, ICU-acquired peritonitis, and adequacy of IAT for other germs), the impact of the adequacy of IAT was no longer significant in multivariate analysis. Septic shock at diagnosis and ICU-acquired IAI were prognostic factors. Conclusion: An IAT which does not cover Enterococcus is associated with an increased 30-day mortality in ICU patients presenting with an IAI growing with Enterococcus, especially when it is not an E. faecalis alone. It seems reasonable to use an IAT active against Enterococcus in severe postoperative ICU-acquired IAI, especially when a third-generation cephalosporin has been used within 3 months. © 2019 The Author(s)