STUDI KEMISKINAN DINAMIS RUMAH TANGGA DI INDONESIA

Kemiskinan bukan hanya fenomena statis, tetapi ada kemungkinan pada suatu titik di masa depan rumah tangga yang tidak miskin menjadi miskin karena adanya suatu guncangan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui determinan kemiskinan dinamis di Indonesia, baik transient poverty maupun chronic poverty. Pada analisis determinan transient poverty maupun chronic poverty, metode regresi yang digunakan adalah metode multinomial logit. Pengukuran status kemiskinan dinamis menggunakan pendekatan spell. Data yang digunakan berasal dari Indonesian family live survey (IFLS) gelombang empat dan lima. Sementara itu, perangkat lunak yang digunakan dalam analisis ini adalah Stata 13. Hasil estimasi regresi menunjukkan bahwa transient poverty secara signifikan dipengaruhi oleh usia, jumlah anggota rumah tangga, sektor dan status pekerjaan kepala rumah tangga, akses terhadap listrik, kepemilikan tabungan, luas rumah, pendidikan kepala rumah tangga, status pernikahan, pulau yang ditinggali dan kejadian gempa bumi. Di sisi lain, chronic poverty secara signifikan dipengaruhi oleh usia, jumlah anggota rumah tangga, sektor dan status pekerjaan kepala rumah tangga, akses terhadap listrik, kepemilikan tabungan, luas rumah, pendidikan kepala rumah tangga dan pulau yang ditinggali. Variabel status pernikahan kepala rumah tangga dan kejadian gempa tidak signifikan berpengaruh terhadap chronic poverty

Workpackage 4 - Establishment of scenarios on the basis of mechanical runout modelling: application of numerical methods

Detailed scientific report for EU-Project Imiriland, Contract n°EVG-CT-2000-00035, 200

Kinematics of a mass movement constrained by sparse and inhomogeneous data

On 12 February 2008, a landslide occurred along a 50 m high bank of the Danube river near Dunaszekcsö, Hungary. The initial state is only incompletely documented and the geodetic data acquired after the mass movement are sparse. A generalized 3-D topographic model of the landslide and its surrounding area was assembled and a representative longitudinal profile extracted. The reconstruction of the original surface is based on an orthophoto as well as on morphological considerations. Recorded observations include the locations of the outcrops of basal sliding surfaces, displacements at the main scarp and in the lower part of the slide, and a value to describe the total mass transport. Such sparse and inhomogeneous data were insufficient to derive a comprehensive documentation of the landslide or obtain adequate constraints for an accurate numerical analysis. Therefore, slider block models were fitted to the field data, which have only a small number of free parameters. A general view on the morphology of the mass movement justifies its classification as a rotational slide. A double slider block model fits all observational parameters within their error margin and supplies valuable information on the geometry of the slide. Estimates of the residual friction angles were derived and the question of reactivation was addressed. Finite Difference (FD) modelling and the application of conventional stability analysis support the geometry of the slider blocks and the computed average residual friction angles. Generally, the results are assumed to represent preliminary information, which could only be attained by the combination of the thinly distributed geodetic data with qualitative morphological observations and the implementation of a model. This type of information can be gained quickly and may be valuable for preliminary hazard mitigation measures or the planning of a comprehensive exploration and monitoring program

Workpackage 4 - Establishment of scenarios on the basis of mechanical runout modelling: application of numerical methods

Detailed scientific report for EU-Project Imiriland, Contract n°EVG-CT-2000-00035, 200