The People's Republic of China's Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints

We estimate the People's Republic of China's (PRC's potential growth rate in 2012 at 8.7% and at 9.2% for the average of 2008-2012, about the same as the average actual growth rate for this period. This rate is the natural growth rate, that is, the rate consistent with a constant unemployment rate and stable inflation. The PRC's natural growth rate displays a downward trend since 2006, when it peaked at 11.1%. Probably the Great Recession has been an important factor, although we argue that there are other factors. We show that the PRC's potential growth rate is not demand constrained, in particular by the balance of payments. The PRC's potential growth rate is determined by the supply side of the economy, in particular by: (i) changes in the structure of the economy, in particular in the share of industrial employment; (ii) the working-age population; (iii) the share of net exports in gross domestic product (GDP); (iv) export growth; (v) the share of foreign direct investment (FDI) in GDP; and (vi) human capital accumulation

MRI predicts intracranial hemorrhage in patients who receive long-term oral anticoagulation

OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that the risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in patients with cardioembolic ischemic stroke who are treated with oral anticoagulants (OAs) can be predicted by evaluating surrogate markers of hemorrhagic-prone cerebral angiopathies using a baseline MRI. METHODS: Patients were participants in a multicenter and prospective observational study. They were older than 64 years, had a recent cardioembolic ischemic stroke, and were new users of OAs. They underwent a baseline MRI analysis to evaluate microbleeds, white matter hyperintensities, and cortical superficial siderosis. We collected demographic variables, clinical characteristics, risk scores, and therapeutic data. The primary endpoint was ICH that occurred during follow-up. We performed bivariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: We recruited 937 patients (aged 77.6 +/- 6.5 years; 47.9% were men). Microbleeds were detected in 207 patients (22.5%), moderate/severe white matter hyperintensities in 419 (45.1%), and superficial siderosis in 28 patients (3%). After a mean follow-up of 23.1 +/- 6.8 months, 18 patients (1.9%) experienced an ICH. In multivariable analysis, microbleeds (hazard ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-7, p = 0.034) and moderate/severe white matter hyperintensities (hazard ratio 5.7, 95% CI 1.6-20, p = 0.006) were associated with ICH (C index 0.76, 95% CI 0.66-0.85). Rate of ICH was highest in patients with both microbleed and moderate/severe WMH (3.76 per 100 patient-years, 95% CI 1.62-7.4). CONCLUSION: Patients taking OAs who have advanced cerebral small vessel disease, evidenced by microbleeds and moderate to severe white matter hyperintensities, had an increased risk of ICH. Our results should help to determine the risk of prescribing OA for a patient with cardioembolic stroke. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER: NCT02238470