Analysis of a continuous-time model of structural balance

It is not uncommon for certain social networks to divide into two opposing camps in response to stress. This happens, for example, in networks of political parties during winner-takes-all elections, in networks of companies competing to establish technical standards, and in networks of nations faced with mounting threats of war. A simple model for these two-sided separations is the dynamical system dX/dt = X^2 where X is a matrix of the friendliness or unfriendliness between pairs of nodes in the network. Previous simulations suggested that only two types of behavior were possible for this system: either all relationships become friendly, or two hostile factions emerge. Here we prove that for generic initial conditions, these are indeed the only possible outcomes. Our analysis yields a closed-form expression for faction membership as a function of the initial conditions, and implies that the initial amount of friendliness in large social networks (started from random initial conditions) determines whether they will end up in intractable conflict or global harmony.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figure

The egalitarian effect of search engines

Search engines have become key media for our scientific, economic, and social activities by enabling people to access information on the Web in spite of its size and complexity. On the down side, search engines bias the traffic of users according to their page-ranking strategies, and some have argued that they create a vicious cycle that amplifies the dominance of established and already popular sites. We show that, contrary to these prior claims and our own intuition, the use of search engines actually has an egalitarian effect. We reconcile theoretical arguments with empirical evidence showing that the combination of retrieval by search engines and search behavior by users mitigates the attraction of popular pages, directing more traffic toward less popular sites, even in comparison to what would be expected from users randomly surfing the Web.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, 2 appendices. The final version of this e-print has been published on the Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103(34), 12684-12689 (2006), http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/103/34/1268

Social Ranking Techniques for the Web

The proliferation of social media has the potential for changing the structure and organization of the web. In the past, scientists have looked at the web as a large connected component to understand how the topology of hyperlinks correlates with the quality of information contained in the page and they proposed techniques to rank information contained in web pages. We argue that information from web pages and network data on social relationships can be combined to create a personalized and socially connected web. In this paper, we look at the web as a composition of two networks, one consisting of information in web pages and the other of personal data shared on social media web sites. Together, they allow us to analyze how social media tunnels the flow of information from person to person and how to use the structure of the social network to rank, deliver, and organize information specifically for each individual user. We validate our social ranking concepts through a ranking experiment conducted on web pages that users shared on Google Buzz and Twitter.Comment: 7 pages, ASONAM 201

Can Cascades be Predicted?

On many social networking web sites such as Facebook and Twitter, resharing or reposting functionality allows users to share others' content with their own friends or followers. As content is reshared from user to user, large cascades of reshares can form. While a growing body of research has focused on analyzing and characterizing such cascades, a recent, parallel line of work has argued that the future trajectory of a cascade may be inherently unpredictable. In this work, we develop a framework for addressing cascade prediction problems. On a large sample of photo reshare cascades on Facebook, we find strong performance in predicting whether a cascade will continue to grow in the future. We find that the relative growth of a cascade becomes more predictable as we observe more of its reshares, that temporal and structural features are key predictors of cascade size, and that initially, breadth, rather than depth in a cascade is a better indicator of larger cascades. This prediction performance is robust in the sense that multiple distinct classes of features all achieve similar performance. We also discover that temporal features are predictive of a cascade's eventual shape. Observing independent cascades of the same content, we find that while these cascades differ greatly in size, we are still able to predict which ends up the largest

Paradoxes in Fair Computer-Aided Decision Making

Computer-aided decision making--where a human decision-maker is aided by a computational classifier in making a decision--is becoming increasingly prevalent. For instance, judges in at least nine states make use of algorithmic tools meant to determine "recidivism risk scores" for criminal defendants in sentencing, parole, or bail decisions. A subject of much recent debate is whether such algorithmic tools are "fair" in the sense that they do not discriminate against certain groups (e.g., races) of people. Our main result shows that for "non-trivial" computer-aided decision making, either the classifier must be discriminatory, or a rational decision-maker using the output of the classifier is forced to be discriminatory. We further provide a complete characterization of situations where fair computer-aided decision making is possible

Evolving graphs: dynamical models, inverse problems and propagation

Applications such as neuroscience, telecommunication, online social networking, transport and retail trading give rise to connectivity patterns that change over time. In this work, we address the resulting need for network models and computational algorithms that deal with dynamic links. We introduce a new class of evolving range-dependent random graphs that gives a tractable framework for modelling and simulation. We develop a spectral algorithm for calibrating a set of edge ranges from a sequence of network snapshots and give a proof of principle illustration on some neuroscience data. We also show how the model can be used computationally and analytically to investigate the scenario where an evolutionary process, such as an epidemic, takes place on an evolving network. This allows us to study the cumulative effect of two distinct types of dynamics

Explaining prosecution outcomes for cryptocurrency-based financial crimes

Purpose: Cryptocurrencies have been used to commit various offences, but enforcement efforts remain underdeveloped relative to the value of these crimes. This paper aims to examine factors associated with outcomes of US-based cryptocurrency financial crime prosecutions. // Design/methodology/approach: The authors studied the 37 resolved cryptocurrency-based financial crime cases in the USA to date, exploring the impact of offence, defendant and evidence characteristics on the mode of disposition and penalties. The authors used bivariate analyses and logistic regression models to determine relationships among these variables. // Findings: The presence of individual defendants only (rather than a corporate defendant or combination thereof) and the use of only a cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin in committing a crime each made a case less likely to be resolved by dismissal, trial or summary or default judgement. // Originality/value: This paper is the first to examine variables contributing to financial crime prosecution outcomes and has implications for prosecutorial decision-making, resource allocation and the prevention and detection of financial offences involving cryptocurrencies

Modeling Dynamics of Information Networks

We propose an information-based model for network dynamics in which imperfect information leads to networks where the different vertices have widely different number of edges to other vertices, and where the topology has hierarchical features. The possibility to observe scale free networks is linked to a minimally connected system where hubs remain dynamic.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures; changed content and new fig