Optimal Flood Control

A mathematical model for optimal control of the water levels in a chain of reservoirs is studied. Some remarks regarding sensitivity with respect to the time horizon, terminal cost and forecast of inflow are made

Urban Myths about Learning and Education

In this book, the most common popular myths relating to learning and education are discussed with respect to whether there is any truth in the myth and what good educational and psychological research has to say about them. Examples of such myths range from: learning styles to neuromyths such as left-brain/right-brain and brain-training programs, how large or small classes and schools should be to the explanation why schools do change (no, really!). This book is written in a concise, humorous, and accessible style, but at the same time based on an extensive scientific review of relevant empirical research. By the way, did you know that there are no pyramids in the work of Maslow and that the NTL has no data to back up Dales’ learning pyramid? Not only does the book debunk most of these Urban Legends in Education, it also discloses some interesting facts about learning and education that do have a proven effect. This book is neither progressive nor conservative; it only attempts to get the facts straight and present them in a way that those involved in teaching and education can understand and use them. The book consists of four content-based sections (i.e., groups of chapters), with each chapter examining a particular genre of myth. The four content based sections are: ‘myths about learning’, ‘neuromyths’, ‘myths about technology and education’ and ‘myths about educational policy’. A fifth and final section discusses why these myths are so persistent (i.e., nearly impossible to eradicate) and possible strategies to combat them. Besides the basic ‘need to know’-text, throughout the book, there are also ‘info-clouds’ with ‘nice to know’ information adding background information, additional facts and humorous anecdotes

Large Sample Size Fallacy in Trials About Antipsychotics for Neuropsychiatric Symptoms in Dementia

Background: A typical antipsychotics for neuropsychiatric symptoms in dementia have been tested in much larger trials than the older conventional drugs. The advantage of larger sample sizes is that negative findings become less likely and the effect estimates more precise. However, as sample sizes increase, the trials also get more expensive and time consuming while exposing more patients to drugs with unknown safety profiles. Moreover, a large sample size might yield a statistically significant effect that is not necessarily clinically relevant. Objective: To assess (1) the variation in sample size and sample size calculations of antipsychotic trials in dementia, (2) the size of reported treatment effects and related statistical significance, and (3) general study characteristics that might be related to sample size. Study Design and Setting: We performed a meta-epidemiological study of randomized trials that tested antipsychotics for neuropsychiatric symptoms in dementia. The trials compared conventional or atypical antipsychotics with placebo or another antipsychotic. Two reviewers independently extracted sample size, sample size calculations, reported treatment effects with p-values, and general study characteristics (drug type, trial duration, type of funding). We calculated a reference sample size of 83 and 433 per study group for the placebo-controlled and head-to-head trials respectively. Results: We identified 33 placebo-controlled trials, and 18 head-to-head trials. Only 14 (42%) and 2 (11%), respectively, reported a sample size calculation. The average sample size per arm was 34 (range 6-179) in placebo-controlled trials testing conventional drugs, 107 (8-237) in such trials testing atypical drugs, and 104 (95-115) in such trials testing both drug types; it was 31 (10-88) in head-to-head trials. Thirteen out of 18 trials with sample sizes larger than required (72%) reported a statistically significant treatment effect, of which two (15%) were clinically relevant. None of the head-to-head trials reported a statistically significant treatment effect, even though some suggested non-inferiority. In placebo-controlled trials of atypical drugs, longer trial duration (>6 weeks) and commercial funding were associated with higher sample size. Conclusion: Sample size calculations were poorly reported in antipsychotic trials for dementia. Placebo-controlled trials of atypical antipsychotics showed large sample size fallacy while head-to-head trials were massively underpowered

The development of an intervention programme to reduce whole-body vibration exposure at work induced by a change in behaviour: a study protocol

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Whole body vibration (WBV) exposure at work is common and studies found evidence that this exposure might cause low back pain (LBP). A recent review concluded there is a lack of evidence of effective strategies to reduce WBV exposure. Most research in this field is focussed on the technical implications, although changing behaviour towards WBV exposure might be promising as well. Therefore, we developed an intervention programme to reduce WBV exposure in a population of drivers with the emphasis on a change in behaviour of driver and employer. The hypothesis is that an effective reduction in WBV exposure, in time, will lead to a reduction in LBP as WBV exposure is a proxy for an increased risk of LBP.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The intervention programme was developed specifically for the drivers of vibrating vehicles and their employers. The intervention programme will be based on the most important determinants of WBV exposure as track conditions, driving speed, quality of the seat, etc. By increasing knowledge and skills towards changing these determinants, the attitude, social influence and self-efficacy (ASE) of both drivers and employers will be affected having an effect on the level of exposure. We used the well-known ASE model to develop an intervention programme aiming at a change or the intention to change behaviour towards WBV exposure. The developed programme consists of: individual health surveillance, an information brochure, an informative presentation and a report of the performed field measurements.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The study protocol described is advantageous as the intervention program actively tries to change behaviour towards WBV exposure. The near future will show if this intervention program is effective by showing a decrease in WBV exposure.</p

Predicting urinary creatinine excretion and its usefulness to identify incomplete 24h urine collections

Studies using 24 h urine collections need to incorporate ways to validate the completeness of the urine samples. Models to predict urinary creatinine excretion (UCE) have been developed for this purpose; however, information on their usefulness to identify incomplete urine collections is limited. We aimed to develop a model for predicting UCE and to assess the performance of a creatinine index using para-aminobenzoic acid (PABA) as a reference. Data were taken from the European Food Consumption Validation study comprising two non-consecutive 24 h urine collections from 600 subjects in five European countries. Data from one collection were used to build a multiple linear regression model to predict UCE, and data from the other collection were used for performance testing of a creatinine index-based strategy to identify incomplete collections. Multiple linear regression (n 458) of UCE showed a significant positive association for body weight (ß = 0·07), the interaction term sex × weight (ß = 0·09, reference women) and protein intake (ß = 0·02). A significant negative association was found for age (ß = - 0·09) and sex (ß = - 3·14, reference women). An index of observed-to-predicted creatinine resulted in a sensitivity to identify incomplete collections of 0·06 (95 % CI 0·01, 0·20) and 0·11 (95 % CI 0·03, 0·22) in men and women, respectively. Specificity was 0·97 (95 % CI 0·97, 0·98) in men and 0·98 (95 % CI 0·98, 0·99) in women. The present study shows that UCE can be predicted from weight, age and sex. However, the results revealed that a creatinine index based on these predictions is not sufficiently sensitive to exclude incomplete 24 h urine collections