Universal Behavior of Extreme Price Movements in Stock Markets

Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using a large collection of data from three different stock markets, we present evidence that a modification to the random model -- adding a slow, but significant, fluctuation to the standard deviation of the process -- accurately explains the probability of different-sized price changes, including the relative high frequency of extreme movements. Furthermore, we show that this process is similar across stocks so that their price fluctuations can be characterized by a single curve. Because the behavior of price fluctuations is rooted in the characteristics of volatility, we expect our results to bring increased interest to stochastic volatility models, and especially to those that can produce the properties of volatility reported here.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

The Operator’s Guide For Minimizing Energy Costs

The consumption of petroleum by transportation activities is increasing despite the finite limits on its supply. This paper concentrates on the motor vehicle driver, his driving habits, and guides to reduced fuel consumption which would enable the individual to curtail wasteful practices with respect to vehicle operation

Neuroimaging of structural pathology and connectomics in traumatic brain injury: Toward personalized outcome prediction.

Recent contributions to the body of knowledge on traumatic brain injury (TBI) favor the view that multimodal neuroimaging using structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI and fMRI, respectively) as well as diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) has excellent potential to identify novel biomarkers and predictors of TBI outcome. This is particularly the case when such methods are appropriately combined with volumetric/morphometric analysis of brain structures and with the exploration of TBI-related changes in brain network properties at the level of the connectome. In this context, our present review summarizes recent developments on the roles of these two techniques in the search for novel structural neuroimaging biomarkers that have TBI outcome prognostication value. The themes being explored cover notable trends in this area of research, including (1) the role of advanced MRI processing methods in the analysis of structural pathology, (2) the use of brain connectomics and network analysis to identify outcome biomarkers, and (3) the application of multivariate statistics to predict outcome using neuroimaging metrics. The goal of the review is to draw the community's attention to these recent advances on TBI outcome prediction methods and to encourage the development of new methodologies whereby structural neuroimaging can be used to identify biomarkers of TBI outcome

Market impact and trading profile of large trading orders in stock markets

We empirically study the market impact of trading orders. We are specifically interested in large trading orders that are executed incrementally, which we call hidden orders. These are reconstructed based on information about market member codes using data from the Spanish Stock Market and the London Stock Exchange. We find that market impact is strongly concave, approximately increasing as the square root of order size. Furthermore, as a given order is executed, the impact grows in time according to a power-law; after the order is finished, it reverts to a level of about 0.5-0.7 of its value at its peak. We observe that hidden orders are executed at a rate that more or less matches trading in the overall market, except for small deviations at the beginning and end of the order.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figure

Contaminant biotransport by Pacific salmon to Lake Michigan tributaries

The Great Lakes are ideal systems for evaluating the synergistic components of environmental change, such as exotic species introductions and legacy pollutants. Introduced Pacific Salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) represent an intersection of these drivers because they are non-native species of economic importance that bioaccumulate contaminants during the open water phase of their life cycle. Furthermore, Pacific salmon can deliver a significant pulse of contaminated tissue to tributaries during spawning and subsequent death. Thus, salmon represent a key pathway by which contaminants accumulated in Lake Michigan are transported inland to tributaries that otherwise lack point source pollution. Our research has revealed that salmon exhibit basin-specific persistent organic pollutant (POP) and mercury (Hg) concentrations reflecting pollutant inputs from both current and historic sources. Overall, Lake Michigan salmon were more contaminated with POPs and Hg than conspecifics from Lakes Huron or Superior. Consequently, Lake Michigan salmon pose a higher risk and magnitude of contaminant biotransport and transfer. Resident stream fish (e.g., brook trout) sampled from salmon spawning reaches had higher pollutant concentrations than fish sampled from upstream reaches lacking salmon, but the extent of fish contamination varied among lake basins and streams. In general, Lake Michigan tributaries were the most impacted, suggesting a direct relationship between the extent of salmon-derived contaminant inputs and resident fish contaminant levels. Within and among lake basins, contaminant biotransport by salmon is context dependent and likely reflects a suite of ecological characteristics such as species identity and trophic position, dynamics of the salmon run, watershed land-use, and instream geomorphology such as sediment size. We suggest that future management of salmon-mediated contaminant biotransport to stream communities in the Great Lakes basin should consider biological, chemical, and physical factors that constitute the environmental context

Neuroimaging of structural pathology and connectomics in traumatic brain injury: Toward personalized outcome prediction☆

Recent contributions to the body of knowledge on traumatic brain injury (TBI) favor the view that multimodal neuroimaging using structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI and fMRI, respectively) as well as diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) has excellent potential to identify novel biomarkers and predictors of TBI outcome. This is particularly the case when such methods are appropriately combined with volumetric/morphometric analysis of brain structures and with the exploration of TBI-related changes in brain network properties at the level of the connectome. In this context, our present review summarizes recent developments on the roles of these two techniques in the search for novel structural neuroimaging biomarkers that have TBI outcome prognostication value. The themes being explored cover notable trends in this area of research, including (1) the role of advanced MRI processing methods in the analysis of structural pathology, (2) the use of brain connectomics and network analysis to identify outcome biomarkers, and (3) the application of multivariate statistics to predict outcome using neuroimaging metrics. The goal of the review is to draw the community's attention to these recent advances on TBI outcome prediction methods and to encourage the development of new methodologies whereby structural neuroimaging can be used to identify biomarkers of TBI outcome

Prenatal Drug Exposure Affects Neonatal Brain Functional Connectivity

Prenatal drug exposure, particularly prenatal cocaine exposure (PCE), incurs great public and scientific interest because of its associated neurodevelopmental consequences. However, the neural underpinnings of PCE remain essentially uncharted, and existing studies in school-aged children and adolescents are confounded greatly by postnatal environmental factors. In this study, leveraging a large neonate sample (N = 152) and non-invasive resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging, we compared human infants with PCE comorbid with other drugs (such as nicotine, alcohol, marijuana, and antidepressant) with infants with similar non-cocaine poly drug exposure and drug-free controls. We aimed to characterize the neural correlates of PCE based on functional connectivity measurements of the amygdala and insula at the earliest stage of development. Our results revealed common drug exposure-related connectivity disruptions within the amygdala–frontal, insula–frontal, and insula–sensorimotor circuits. Moreover, a cocaine-specific effect was detected within a subregion of the amygdala–frontal network. This pathway is thought to play an important role in arousal regulation, which has been shown to be irregular in PCE infants and adolescents. These novel results provide the earliest human-based functional delineations of the neural-developmental consequences of prenatal drug exposure and thus open a new window for the advancement of effective strategies aimed at early risk identification and intervention

Patient-Tailored Connectomics Visualization for the Assessment of White Matter Atrophy in Traumatic Brain Injury

Available approaches to the investigation of traumatic brain injury (TBI) are frequently hampered, to some extent, by the unsatisfactory abilities of existing methodologies to efficiently define and represent affected structural connectivity and functional mechanisms underlying TBI-related pathology. In this paper, we describe a patient-tailored framework which allows mapping and characterization of TBI-related structural damage to the brain via multimodal neuroimaging and personalized connectomics. Specifically, we introduce a graphically driven approach for the assessment of trauma-related atrophy of white matter connections between cortical structures, with relevance to the quantification of TBI chronic case evolution. This approach allows one to inform the formulation of graphical neurophysiological and neuropsychological TBI profiles based on the particular structural deficits of the affected patient. In addition, it allows one to relate the findings supplied by our workflow to the existing body of research that focuses on the functional roles of the cortical structures being targeted. A graphical means for representing patient TBI status is relevant to the emerging field of personalized medicine and to the investigation of neural atrophy

A voxel-wise assessment of growth differences in infants developing autism spectrum disorder

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a phenotypically and etiologically heterogeneous developmental disorder typically diagnosed around 4 years of age. The development of biomarkers to help in earlier, presymptomatic diagnosis could facilitate earlier identification and therefore earlier intervention and may lead to better outcomes, as well as providing information to help better understand the underlying mechanisms of ASD. In this study, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of infants at high familial risk, from the Infant Brain Imaging Study (IBIS), at 6, 12 and 24 months of age were included in a morphological analysis, fitting a mixed-effects model to Tensor Based Morphometry (TBM) results to obtain voxel-wise growth trajectories. Subjects were grouped by familial risk and clinical diagnosis at 2 years of age. Several regions, including the posterior cingulate gyrus, the cingulum, the fusiform gyrus, and the precentral gyrus, showed a significant effect for the interaction of group and age associated with ASD, either as an increased or a decreased growth rate of the cerebrum. In general, our results showed increased growth rate within white matter with decreased growth rate found mostly in grey matter. Overall, the regions showing increased growth rate were larger and more numerous than those with decreased growth rate. These results detail, at the voxel level, differences in brain growth trajectories in ASD during the first years of life, previously reported in terms of overall brain volume and surface area

A voxel-wise assessment of growth differences in infants developing autism spectrum disorder

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a phenotypically and etiologically heterogeneous developmental disorder typically diagnosed around 4 years of age. The development of biomarkers to help in earlier, presymptomatic diagnosis could facilitate earlier identification and therefore earlier intervention and may lead to better outcomes, as well as providing information to help better understand the underlying mechanisms of ASD. In this study, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of infants at high familial risk, from the Infant Brain Imaging Study (IBIS), at 6, 12 and 24 months of age were included in a morphological analysis, fitting a mixed-effects model to Tensor Based Morphometry (TBM) results to obtain voxel-wise growth trajectories. Subjects were grouped by familial risk and clinical diagnosis at 2 years of age. Several regions, including the posterior cingulate gyrus, the cingulum, the fusiform gyrus, and the precentral gyrus, showed a significant effect for the interaction of group and age associated with ASD, either as an increased or a decreased growth rate of the cerebrum. In general, our results showed increased growth rate within white matter with decreased growth rate found mostly in grey matter. Overall, the regions showing increased growth rate were larger and more numerous than those with decreased growth rate. These results detail, at the voxel level, differences in brain growth trajectories in ASD during the first years of life, previously reported in terms of overall brain volume and surface area