A metapopulation model for preventing the reintroduction of bovine viral diarrhea virus to naïve herds: Scotland case study

BACKGROUND: Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) virus is one of the most problematic infectious pathogens for cattle. Since 2013, a mandatory BVD eradication program has successfully reduced the number of infected cattle living on Scottish farms; however, England remains at high prevalence and presents a risk to Scotland through animal movement. METHODS: We analyze cattle movements in the UK from 2008 to 2017 and recorded incidence of BVD in Scotland from 2017 to 2020. To simulate BVD reintroduction into Scotland, we developed an epidemiological model that combines transmission between cattle and animal movements between farms. A total of four control strategies were implemented in the model: no intervention, import restriction, targeted vaccination, and combined strategy. RESULTS: During the course of the eradication scheme, movements into Scotland became increasingly distributed in regions close to the England–Scotland border. The prevalence of BVD in this region decreased at a slower rate than the rest of Scotland during the eradication scheme. Our model showed that the change in the prevalence is expected, given that the change in the patterns of movement and if vaccination is targeted to the border areas that decrease in the prevalence will be seen throughout the whole of Scotland. CONCLUSION: Scottish farms are susceptible to BVD virus reintroduction through animal imports from non-BVD-free nations with farms in border areas being the most vulnerable. Protecting the border regions provides direct and indirect protection to the rest of Scottish farms by interrupting chains of transmission

Directed transport and localization in phase-modulated driven lattices

We explore the dynamics of non-interacting particles loaded into a phase-modulated one-dimensional lattice formed by laterally oscillating square barriers. Tuning the parameters of the driven unit cell of the lattice selected parts of the classical phase space can be manipulated in a controllable manner. We find superdiffusion in position space for all parameters regimes. A directed current of an ensemble of particles can be created through locally breaking the spatiotemporal symmetries of the time-driven potential. Magnitude and direction of the current are tunable. Several mechanisms for transient localization and trapping of particles in different wells of the driven unit cell are presented and analyzed

A Metapopulation Model for Preventing the Reintroduction of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus to Naïve Herds: Scotland Case Study

BackgroundBovine viral diarrhea (BVD) virus is one of the most problematic infectious pathogens for cattle. Since 2013, a mandatory BVD eradication program has successfully reduced the number of infected cattle living on Scottish farms; however, England remains at high prevalence and presents a risk to Scotland through animal movement.MethodsWe analyze cattle movements in the UK from 2008 to 2017 and recorded incidence of BVD in Scotland from 2017 to 2020. To simulate BVD reintroduction into Scotland, we developed an epidemiological model that combines transmission between cattle and animal movements between farms. A total of four control strategies were implemented in the model: no intervention, import restriction, targeted vaccination, and combined strategy.ResultsDuring the course of the eradication scheme, movements into Scotland became increasingly distributed in regions close to the England–Scotland border. The prevalence of BVD in this region decreased at a slower rate than the rest of Scotland during the eradication scheme. Our model showed that the change in the prevalence is expected, given that the change in the patterns of movement and if vaccination is targeted to the border areas that decrease in the prevalence will be seen throughout the whole of Scotland.ConclusionScottish farms are susceptible to BVD virus reintroduction through animal imports from non-BVD-free nations with farms in border areas being the most vulnerable. Protecting the border regions provides direct and indirect protection to the rest of Scottish farms by interrupting chains of transmission

Ascertainment rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections from healthcare and community testing in the UK

The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections ascertained through healthcare and community testing is generally unknown and expected to vary depending on natural factors and changes in test-seeking behaviour. Here we use population surveillance data and reported daily case numbers in the United Kingdom to estimate the rate of case ascertainment. We mathematically describe the relationship between the ascertainment rate, the daily number of reported cases, population prevalence, and the sensitivity of PCR and Lateral Flow tests as a function time since exposure. Applying this model to the data, we estimate that 20%–40% of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK were ascertained with a positive test with results varying by time and region. Cases of the Alpha variant were ascertained at a higher rate than the wild type variants circulating in the early pandemic, and higher again for the Delta variant and Omicron BA.1 sub-lineage, but lower for the BA.2 sub-lineage. Case ascertainment was higher in adults than in children. We further estimate the daily number of infections and compare this to mortality data to estimate that the infection fatality rate increased by a factor of 3 during the period dominated by the Alpha variant, and declined in line with the distribution of vaccines. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on “Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics”

Factorizing numbers with classical interference: several implementations in optics

Truncated Fourier, Gauss, Kummer and exponential sums can be used to factorize numbers: for a factor these sums equal unity in absolute value, whereas they nearly vanish for any other number. We show how this factorization algorithm can emerge from superpositions of classical light waves and we present a number of simple implementations in optics

Using Road Topology to Improve Cyclist Path Prediction

We learn motion models for cyclist path prediction on real-world tracks obtained from a moving vehicle, and propose to exploit the local road topology to obtain better predictive distributions. The tracks are extracted from the Tsinghua-Daimler Cyclist Benchmark for cyclist detection, and corrected for vehicle egomotion. Tracks are then spatially aligned to local curves and crossings in the road. We study a standard approach for path prediction in the literature based on Kalman Filters, as well as a mixture of specialized filters related to specific road orientations at junctions. Our experiments demonstrate an improved prediction accuracy (up to 20% on sharp turns) of mixing specialized motion models for canonical directions, and prior knowledge on the road topology. The new track data complements the existing video, disparity and annotation data o

Decay versus survival of a localized state subjected to harmonic forcing: exact results

We investigate the survival probability of a localized 1-d quantum particle subjected to a time dependent potential of the form $rU(x)\sin{\omega t}$ with $U(x)=2\delta (x-a)$ or $U(x)= 2\delta(x-a)-2\delta (x+a)$. The particle is initially in a bound state produced by the binding potential $-2\delta (x)$. We prove that this probability goes to zero as $t\to\infty$ for almost all values of $r$, $\omega$, and $a$. The decay is initially exponential followed by a $t^{-3}$ law if $\omega$ is not close to resonances and $r$ is small; otherwise the exponential disappears and Fermi's golden rule fails. For exceptional sets of parameters $r,\omega$ and $a$ the survival probability never decays to zero, corresponding to the Floquet operator having a bound state. We show similar behavior even in the absence of a binding potential: permitting a free particle to be trapped by harmonically oscillating delta function potential