A long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK

A new modelling strategy is introduced which provides a practical approach to incorporating long- run structural relationships, suggested by economic theory, in an otherwise unrestricted VAR model. The strategy is applied in the construction of a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the UK, estimated over the period 1965q1-1995q4 in eight core variables: domestic and foreign outputs, domestic and foreign prices (both measured relative to oil prices), the nominal effective exchange rate, nominal domestic and foreign interest rates and real money balances. The aim is to develop a core model with a transparent and theoretically coherent foundation. Tests of restrictions on the long-run relations of the model are presented and the dynamic properties of the model are discussed.Long-Run Structural VAR, A Core UK Model, Macroeconomic Modelling, Persistence Profiles

Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconomics Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround marco-economic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macro-econometric model, are presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that recession will be avoided, both as separate single events and jointly. The probability forecasts are also used to provide insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons.Probability Forecasting, Long Run Structural VARs, Macroeconometric Modelling, Forecast Evaluation, Probability Forecasts of Inflation and Output Growth

Development of c-means Clustering Based Adaptive Fuzzy Controller for A Flapping Wing Micro Air Vehicle

Advanced and accurate modelling of a Flapping Wing Micro Air Vehicle (FW MAV) and its control is one of the recent research topics related to the field of autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). In this work, a four wing Natureinspired (NI) FW MAV is modeled and controlled inspiring by its advanced features like quick flight, vertical take-off and landing, hovering, and fast turn, and enhanced manoeuvrability when contrasted with comparable-sized fixed and rotary wing UAVs. The Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering algorithm is utilized to demonstrate the NIFW MAV model, which has points of interest over first principle based modelling since it does not depend on the system dynamics, rather based on data and can incorporate various uncertainties like sensor error. The same clustering strategy is used to develop an adaptive fuzzy controller. The controller is then utilized to control the altitude of the NIFW MAV, that can adapt with environmental disturbances by tuning the antecedent and consequent parameters of the fuzzy system.Comment: this paper is currently under review in Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing Researc

PAC: A Novel Self-Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Controller for Micro Aerial Vehicles

There exists an increasing demand for a flexible and computationally efficient controller for micro aerial vehicles (MAVs) due to a high degree of environmental perturbations. In this work, an evolving neuro-fuzzy controller, namely Parsimonious Controller (PAC) is proposed. It features fewer network parameters than conventional approaches due to the absence of rule premise parameters. PAC is built upon a recently developed evolving neuro-fuzzy system known as parsimonious learning machine (PALM) and adopts new rule growing and pruning modules derived from the approximation of bias and variance. These rule adaptation methods have no reliance on user-defined thresholds, thereby increasing the PAC's autonomy for real-time deployment. PAC adapts the consequent parameters with the sliding mode control (SMC) theory in the single-pass fashion. The boundedness and convergence of the closed-loop control system's tracking error and the controller's consequent parameters are confirmed by utilizing the LaSalle-Yoshizawa theorem. Lastly, the controller's efficacy is evaluated by observing various trajectory tracking performance from a bio-inspired flapping-wing micro aerial vehicle (BI-FWMAV) and a rotary wing micro aerial vehicle called hexacopter. Furthermore, it is compared to three distinctive controllers. Our PAC outperforms the linear PID controller and feed-forward neural network (FFNN) based nonlinear adaptive controller. Compared to its predecessor, G-controller, the tracking accuracy is comparable, but the PAC incurs significantly fewer parameters to attain similar or better performance than the G-controller.Comment: This paper has been accepted for publication in Information Science Journal 201

Worldwide rates of diagnosis and effective treatment for cystic fibrosis

BACKGROUND: Time has seen management for Cystic Fibrosis (CF) advance drastically, most recently in the development of the disease-modifying triple combination therapy ivacaftor/tezacaftor/elexacaftor. There is currently limited evidence regarding both the global epidemiology of CF and access to this transformative therapy - and therefore where needs are not being met. Therefore, this study aims to define gaps in access to CF treatment. METHODS: Patient data were extracted from established CF registries. Where these were not available, literature searches were conducted alongside an international survey of 51 CF experts to determine the diagnosed patient population. National CF prevalence estimates were combined with registry data on estimated population coverage, to extrapolate the total estimated number of undiagnosed patients. Estimates of ivacaftor/tezacaftor/elexacaftor treatment coverage were extracted from publicly available sales summaries and pricing data. RESULTS: 162,428 [144,606-186,620] people are estimated to be living with CF across 94 countries. Of these, an estimated 105,352 (65%) are diagnosed, with 19,516 (12%) receiving triple combination therapy. We estimated 57,076 patients with undiagnosed CF. Owing to a paucity of high-quality data, estimates of undiagnosed CF in low- and middle-income countries are highly uncertain. Patient registries were available in 45 countries, and used to identify 90% of the estimated diagnosed population. CONCLUSIONS: A significant CF patient burden exists in countries where disease-modifying drugs are unavailable, and final figures are likely underestimates. This analysis shows the potential to improve rates of diagnosis and treatment for CF, so a higher percentage of patients receive the most effective triple combination treatment

#stillhungry : who is hungry, for how long, and why?

The #stillhungry report draws on two years of detailed statistical data from West Cheshire Foodbank, part of the UK-wide Trussell Trust Foodbank Network, and makes several recommendations for practical ways in which the need for the foodbank could be reduced

Boxwoods

True boxwood, commonly called Turkish boxwood, is derived from a small group of plants, of which the common evergreen ·box of our gardens is the type. To this group the famous botanist Linnaeus gave the generic name of Buxis, the Latin for box tree. He called the best known member of it Buxis sempervirens, which is\u27 but another form of Ovid\u27s buxus perpetuo virens, the evergreen box. For long this was considered the only species, though various forms and varieties came to be recognized, several of which have since been elevated by other botanists to specific rank

Cocobolo

Cocobolo is a valuable timber of commerce that has been in use in this country, particularly for handles of cutlery, for more than fifty years. It is produced by certain species of Dalbergia indigenous to Central America and southwestern Mexico. The present commercial sources are Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua