Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures

Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries

Repeatability and measurement error in the assessment of choline and betaine dietary intake: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Abstract Background The repeatability of a risk factor measurement affects the ability to accurately ascertain its association with a specific outcome. Choline is involved in methylation of homocysteine, a putative risk factor for cardiovascular disease, to methionine through a betaine-dependent pathway (one-carbon metabolism). It is unknown whether dietary intake of choline meets the recommended Adequate Intake (AI) proposed for choline (550 mg/day for men and 425 mg/day for women). The Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) remains to be established in population settings. Our objectives were to ascertain the reliability of choline and related nutrients (folate and methionine) intakes assessed with a brief food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and to estimate dietary intake of choline and betaine in a bi-ethnic population. Methods We estimated the FFQ dietary instrument reliability for the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and the measurement error for choline and related nutrients from a stratified random sample of the ARIC study participants at the second visit, 1990–92 (N = 1,004). In ARIC, a population-based cohort of 15,792 men and women aged 45–64 years (1987–89) recruited at four locales in the U.S., diet was assessed in 15,706 baseline study participants using a version of the Willett 61-item FFQ, expanded to include some ethnic foods. Intraindividual variability for choline, folate and methionine were estimated using mixed models regression. Results Measurement error was substantial for the nutrients considered. The reliability coefficients were 0.50 for choline (0.50 for choline plus betaine), 0.53 for folate, 0.48 for methionine and 0.43 for total energy intake. In the ARIC population, the median and the 75th percentile of dietary choline intake were 284 mg/day and 367 mg/day, respectively. 94% of men and 89% of women had an intake of choline below that proposed as AI. African Americans had a lower dietary intake of choline in both genders. Conclusion The three-year reliability of reported dietary intake was similar for choline and related nutrients, in the range as that published in the literature for other micronutrients. Using a brief FFQ to estimate intake, the majority of individuals in the ARIC cohort had an intake of choline below the values proposed as AI

Usual choline and betaine dietary intake and incident coronary heart disease: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Low dietary intake of the essential nutrient choline and its metabolite betaine may increase atherogenesis both through effects on homocysteine methylation pathways as well as through choline's antioxidants properties. Nutrient values for many common foods for choline and betaine have recently become available in the U.S. nutrient composition database. Our objective was to assess the association of dietary intake of choline and betaine with incident coronary heart disease (CHD), adjusting for dietary intake measurement error.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a prospective investigation of the relation between usual intake of choline and betaine with the risk of CHD in 14,430 middle-aged men and women of the biethnic Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. A semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire was used to assess nutrient intake. Proportional hazard regression models were used to calculate the risk of incident CHD. A regression calibration method was used to adjust for measurement error.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During an average 14 years of follow-up (1987–2002), 1,072 incident CHD events were documented. Compared with the lowest quartile of intake, incident CHD risk was slightly and non-significantly higher in the highest quartile of choline and choline plus betaine, HR = 1.22 (0.91, 1.64) and HR = 1.14 (0.85, 1.53), controlling for age, sex, education, total energy intake, dietary intakes of folate, methionine and vitamin B₆. No association was found between dietary choline intake and incident CHD when correcting for measurement error.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Higher intakes of choline and betaine were not protective for incident CHD. Similar investigations in other populations are of interest.</p

Analysis of the efficacy, safety, and regulatory status of novel forms of creatine

Creatine has become one of the most popular dietary supplements in the sports nutrition market. The form of creatine that has been most extensively studied and commonly used in dietary supplements is creatine monohydrate (CM). Studies have consistently indicated that CM supplementation increases muscle creatine and phosphocreatine concentrations by approximately 15–40%, enhances anaerobic exercise capacity, and increases training volume leading to greater gains in strength, power, and muscle mass. A number of potential therapeutic benefits have also been suggested in various clinical populations. Studies have indicated that CM is not degraded during normal digestion and that nearly 99% of orally ingested CM is either taken up by muscle or excreted in urine. Further, no medically significant side effects have been reported in literature. Nevertheless, supplement manufacturers have continually introduced newer forms of creatine into the marketplace. These newer forms have been purported to have better physical and chemical properties, bioavailability, efficacy, and/or safety profiles than CM. However, there is little to no evidence that any of the newer forms of creatine are more effective and/or safer than CM whether ingested alone and/or in combination with other nutrients. In addition, whereas the safety, efficacy, and regulatory status of CM is clearly defined in almost all global markets; the safety, efficacy, and regulatory status of other forms of creatine present in today’s marketplace as a dietary or food supplement is less clear

The Regional Extraction Method: EC Input–Output Comparisons

This paper presents a method for quantifying inter-regional linkages on the basis of a many-region input—output table. The extraction method proposed can be seen as an extension of Strassert's hypothetical extraction method. Instead of extracting one sector from a sector-based model, the effects of hypothetically extracting a region from a many-region model are considered. It is shown that the method calculates so-called backward linkages. Forward linkages are obtained analogously from the matrix of allocation coefficients. The method is applied to intercountry linkages for the EC in the years 1970 and 1980