Comparison of Current-Use Pesticide and Other Toxicant Urinary Metabolite Levels among Pregnant Women in the CHAMACOS Cohort and NHANES

BackgroundWe measured 34 metabolites of current-use pesticides and other precursor compounds in urine samples collected twice during pregnancy from 538 women living in the Salinas Valley of California, a highly agricultural area (1999-2001). Precursors of these metabolites included fungicides, carbamate, organochlorine, organophosphorus (OP), and pyrethroid insecticides, and triazine and chloroacetanilide herbicides. We also measured ethylenethiourea, a metabolite of the ethylene-bisdithiocarbamate fungicides. Repeat measurements of the compounds presented here have not been reported in pregnant women previously. To understand the impact of the women's regional environment on these findings, we compared metabolite concentrations from the CHAMACOS (Center for the Health Assessment of Mothers and Children of Salinas) cohort with U.S. national reference data for 342 pregnant women sampled by the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2002).ResultsThe eight metabolites detected in > 50% of samples [2,4-dichlorophenol (2,4-DCP); 2,5-dichlorophenol (2,5-DCP); 1- and 2-naphthol; ortho-phenylphenol (ORTH); para-nitrophenol (PNP); 2,4,6-trichlorophenol (2,4,6-TCP); and 3,4,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCPy)] may be related to home or agricultural pesticide use in the Salinas Valley, household products, and other sources of chlorinated phenols. More than 78% of women in this study had detectable levels of at least one of the OP pesticide-specific metabolites that we measured, and > 30% had two or more. The 95th percentile values of six of the most commonly detected (> 50%) compounds were significantly higher among the CHAMACOS women after controlling for age, race, socioeconomic status, and smoking [(2,4-DCP; 2,5-DCP; ORTH; PNP; 2,4,6-TCP; and TCPy); quantile regression p < 0.05].ConclusionsFindings suggest that the CHAMACOS cohort has an additional burden of precursor pesticide exposure compared with the national sample, possibly from living and/or working in an agricultural area

Flatback airfoil wind tunnel experiment.

A computational fluid dynamics study of thick wind turbine section shapes in the test section of the UC Davis wind tunnel at a chord Reynolds number of one million is presented. The goals of this study are to validate standard wind tunnel wall corrections for high solid blockage conditions and to reaffirm the favorable effect of a blunt trailing edge or flatback on the performance characteristics of a representative thick airfoil shape prior to building the wind tunnel models and conducting the experiment. The numerical simulations prove the standard wind tunnel corrections to be largely valid for the proposed test of 40% maximum thickness to chord ratio airfoils at a solid blockage ratio of 10%. Comparison of the computed lift characteristics of a sharp trailing edge baseline airfoil and derived flatback airfoils reaffirms the earlier observed trend of reduced sensitivity to surface contamination with increasing trailing edge thickness

Computational design and analysis of flatback airfoil wind tunnel experiment.

A computational fluid dynamics study of thick wind turbine section shapes in the test section of the UC Davis wind tunnel at a chord Reynolds number of one million is presented. The goals of this study are to validate standard wind tunnel wall corrections for high solid blockage conditions and to reaffirm the favorable effect of a blunt trailing edge or flatback on the performance characteristics of a representative thick airfoil shape prior to building the wind tunnel models and conducting the experiment. The numerical simulations prove the standard wind tunnel corrections to be largely valid for the proposed test of 40% maximum thickness to chord ratio airfoils at a solid blockage ratio of 10%. Comparison of the computed lift characteristics of a sharp trailing edge baseline airfoil and derived flatback airfoils reaffirms the earlier observed trend of reduced sensitivity to surface contamination with increasing trailing edge thickness

Modeling and Control of HOT Lanes - Phase II

65A0626This project extended the driver behavior model with a second, alternative parameterization of HOT violation. To accompany ready-to-pay model, this project developed a concept of a willing-to-violate model. This model describes the portion of non-High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) drivers that are willing to misrepresent themselves as HOVs to gain free access as a function of several variables, including e.g. the toll cost saved by violation, probability of being caught and the difference of traffic density in the general purpose and the HOT lanes. This parameterization allowed for study of effects on the HOT lane system as a function of estimated probability of catching violators from increased enforcement

Silent progression in disease activity-free relapsing multiple sclerosis.

ObjectiveRates of worsening and evolution to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) may be substantially lower in actively treated patients compared to natural history studies from the pretreatment era. Nonetheless, in our recently reported prospective cohort, more than half of patients with relapsing MS accumulated significant new disability by the 10th year of follow-up. Notably, "no evidence of disease activity" at 2 years did not predict long-term stability. Here, we determined to what extent clinical relapses and radiographic evidence of disease activity contribute to long-term disability accumulation.MethodsDisability progression was defined as an increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) of 1.5, 1.0, or 0.5 (or greater) from baseline EDSS = 0, 1.0-5.0, and 5.5 or higher, respectively, assessed from baseline to year 5 (±1 year) and sustained to year 10 (±1 year). Longitudinal analysis of relative brain volume loss used a linear mixed model with sex, age, disease duration, and HLA-DRB1*15:01 as covariates.ResultsRelapses were associated with a transient increase in disability over 1-year intervals (p = 0.012) but not with confirmed disability progression (p = 0.551). Relative brain volume declined at a greater rate among individuals with disability progression compared to those who remained stable (p < 0.05).InterpretationLong-term worsening is common in relapsing MS patients, is largely independent of relapse activity, and is associated with accelerated brain atrophy. We propose the term silent progression to describe the insidious disability that accrues in many patients who satisfy traditional criteria for relapsing-remitting MS. Ann Neurol 2019;85:653-666

Impact of intercensal population projections and error of closure on breast cancer surveillance: examples from 10 California counties

INTRODUCTION: In 2001, data from the California Cancer Registry suggested that breast cancer incidence rates among non-Hispanic white (nHW) women in Marin County, California, had increased almost 60% between 1991 and 1999. This analysis examines the extent to which these and other breast cancer incidence trends could have been impacted by bias in intercensal population projections. METHOD: We obtained population projections for the year 2000 projected from the 1990 census from the California Department of Finance (DOF) and population counts from the 2000 US Census for nHW women living in 10 California counties and quantified age-specific differences in counts. We also computed age-adjusted incidence rates of invasive breast cancer in order to examine and quantify the impact of differences between the population data sources. RESULTS: Differences between year 2000 DOF projections and year 2000 census counts varied by county and age and ranged from underestimates of 60% to overestimates of 64%. For Marin County, the DOF underestimated the number of nHW women aged 45 to 64 years by 32% compared to the 2000 US census. This difference produced a significant 22% discrepancy between breast cancer incidence rates calculated using the two population data sources. In Los Angeles and Santa Clara counties, DOF-based incidence rates were significantly lower than rates based on census data. Rates did not differ significantly by population data source in the remaining seven counties examined. CONCLUSION: Although year 2000 population estimates from the DOF did not differ markedly from census counts at the state or county levels, greater discrepancies were observed for race-stratified, age-specific groups within counties. Because breast cancer incidence rates must be calculated with age-specific data, differences between population data sources at the age-race level may lead to mis-estimation of breast cancer incidence rates in county populations affected by these differences, as was observed in Marin County. Although intercensal rates based on population projections are important for timely breast cancer surveillance, these rates are prone to bias due to the error of closure between population projections and decennial census population counts. Intercensal rates should be interpreted with this potential bias in mind