Evaluation of simulated responses to climate forcings: a flexible statistical framework using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling – Part 2: Numerical experiment

The performance of a new statistical framework, developed for the evaluation of simulated temperature responses to climate forcings against temperature reconstructions derived from climate proxy data for the last millennium, is evaluated in a so-called pseudo-proxy experiment, where the true unobservable temperature is replaced with output data from a selected simulation with a climate model. Being an extension of the statistical model used in many detection and attribution (D&amp;A) studies, the framework under study involves two main types of statistical models, each of which is based on the concept of latent (unobservable) variables: confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) models and structural equation modelling (SEM) models. Within the present pseudo-proxy experiment, each statistical model was fitted to seven continental-scale regional data sets. In addition, their performance for each defined region was compared to the performance of the corresponding statistical model used in D&amp;A studies. The results of this experiment indicated that the SEM specification is the most appropriate one for describing the underlying latent structure of the simulated temperature data in question. The conclusions of the experiment have been confirmed in a cross-validation study, presuming the availability of several simulation data sets within each studied region. Since the experiment is performed only for zero noise level in the pseudo-proxy data, all statistical models, chosen as final regional models, await further investigation to thoroughly test their performance for realistic levels of added noise, similar to what is found in real proxy data for past temperature variations.</p

Evaluation of simulated responses to climate forcings: a flexible statistical framework using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling – Part 1: Theory

Evaluation of climate model simulations is a crucial task in climate research. Here, a new statistical framework is proposed for evaluation of simulated temperature responses to climate forcings against temperature reconstructions derived from climate proxy data for the last millennium. The framework includes two types of statistical models, each of which is based on the concept of latent (unobservable) variables: confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) models and structural equation modelling (SEM) models. Each statistical model presented is developed for use with data from a single region, which can be of any size. The ideas behind the framework arose partly from a statistical model used in many detection and attribution (D&amp;A) studies. Focusing on climatological characteristics of five specific forcings of natural and anthropogenic origin, the present work theoretically motivates an extension of the statistical model used in D&amp;A studies to CFA and SEM models, which allow, for example, for non-climatic noise in observational data without assuming the additivity of the forcing effects. The application of the ideas of CFA is exemplified in a small numerical study, whose aim was to check the assumptions typically placed on ensembles of climate model simulations when constructing mean sequences. The result of this study indicated that some ensembles for some regions may not satisfy the assumptions in question.</p

Vascular presentation of cystathionine beta-synthase deficiency in adulthood

Several recent studies describing a solely vascular presentation of cystathionine beta-synthase (CBS) deficiency in adulthood prompted us to analyze the frequency of patients manifesting with vascular complications in the Czech Republic. Between 1980 and 2009, a total of 20 Czech patients with CBS deficiency have been diagnosed yielding an incidence of 1:311,000. These patients were divided into three groups based on symptoms leading to diagnosis: those with vascular complications, with connective tissue manifestation and with neurological presentation. A vascular event such as a clinical feature leading to diagnosis of homocystinuria was present in five patients, while two of them had no other symptoms typical for CBS deficiency at the time of diagnosis. All patients with the vascular manifestation were diagnosed only during the past decade. The median age of diagnosis was 29 years in the vascular, 11.5 years in the connective tissue and 4.5 years in the neurological group. The ratio of pyridoxine responsive to nonresponsive patients was higher in the vascular (4 of 5 patients) and connective tissue groups (6 of 7 patients) than in the neurological group (2 of 8 patients). Mutation c.833T>C (p.I278T) was frequent in patients with vascular (6/10 alleles) and connective tissue presentation (8/14 alleles), while it was not present in patients with neurological involvement (0/16 alleles). During the last decade, we have observed patients with homocystinuria diagnosed solely due to vascular events; this milder form of homocystinuria usually manifests at greater ages, has a high ratio of pyridoxine responsiveness/nonresponsiveness, and the mutation c.833T>C (p.I278T) is often present

The impact of hyperbaric oxygen therapy on serological values of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hyperbaric oxygen (HBO) therapy is an effective adjunct treatment for ischemic disorders such as chronic infection or chronic wounds. It combines hyperoxic effects with the stimulating potential of post-therapeutic reactive hypoxia. As its crucial effects, stimulation of fibroblast growth, induction of collagen synthesis and the initiation of angiogenesis are discussed. Angiogenesis is a multistage process resulting in the growth of blood vessels. It includes degradation of extracellular matrix, proliferation and migration of different cell populations and finally formation of new vessel structures. This complex chain of procedures is orchestrated by different cytokines and growth factors. Crucial mediators of angiogenesis are basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF); their <it>in-vivo </it>function is still not fully understood.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Forty-three patients suffering from sudden sensorineural hearing loss or tinnitus were treated with HBO. The therapy included 10 sessions of 90 minutes each, one session a day. Serological levels of bFGF and VEGF were assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays performed according to the manufacturer's instructions on day 1, 2, 5 and 10 of HBO therapy and were compared to mean values of the control group, related to the patient's age and sex, and their development observed over the ten days of HBO.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There was no sex- or age dependency of bFGF observed in the present study, whereas under HBO our results showed a significant mitigation of the bFGF concentration. In the present data, there was no connection between the VEGF concentration and the patients' ages. Women showed significantly higher levels of VEGF. There was no significant change of VEGF concentration or the VEGF/bFGF ratio during HBO. All scored results varied within the range of standard values as described in the current literature.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A significant effect of HBO on serum concentrations of bFGF and VEGF was not verified in the present study. Additional application of exogenous growth factors in conjunction with HBO was not obviously linked by a coherent cause-and-effect chain as far as wound healing is concerned.</p

Idiopathic radiographic apical root resorption in wind instrument players

Root resorption of the permanent teeth involves an elaborate interaction among inflammatory cells resulting in loss of dental hard tissues. This report describes three clinical cases where idiopathic root resorption occurred in wind instrument playing patients. These patients produce adequate non-orthodontic forces, while playing their instruments, to expose their teeth to root resorbing force. Careful clinical monitoring of patients' teeth should be undertaken, as the additive effects of orthodontic treatment and musical habits are unknown