Transforming health policy through machine learning.

In their Perspective, Ara Darzi and Hutan Ashrafian give us a tour of the future policymaker's machine learning toolkit

Threats to safe transitions from hospital to home: a consensus study in North West London primary care.

BACKGROUND: Transitions between healthcare settings are vulnerable points for patients. AIM: To identify key threats to safe patient transitions from hospital to primary care settings. DESIGN AND SETTING: Three-round web-based Delphi consensus process among clinical and non-clinical staff from 39 primary care practices in North West London, England. METHOD: Round 1 was a free-text idea-generating round. Rounds 2 and 3 were consensus-obtaining rating rounds. Practices were encouraged to complete the questionnaires at team meetings. Aggregate ratings of perceived level of importance for each threat were calculated (1-3: 'not important', 4-6: 'somewhat important', 7-9: 'very important'). Percentage of votes cast for each patient or medication group were recorded; consensus was defined as ≥75%. RESULTS: A total of 39 practices completed round 1, 36/39 (92%) completed round 2, and 30/36 (83%) completed round 3. Round 1 identified nine threats encompassing problems involving communication, service organisation, medication provision, and patients who were most at risk. 'Poor quality of handover instructions from secondary to primary care teams' achieved the highest rating (mean rating at round 3 = 8.43) and a 100% consensus that it was a 'very important' threat. Older individuals (97%) and patients with complex medical problems taking >5 medications (80%) were voted the most vulnerable. Anticoagulants (77%) were considered to pose the greatest risk to patients. CONCLUSION: This study identified specific threats to safe patient transitions from hospital to primary care, providing policymakers and healthcare providers with targets for quality improvement strategies. Further work would need to identify factors underpinning these threats so that interventions can be tailored to the relevant behavioural and environmental contexts in which these threats arise

A systematic review of interventions to improve breast cancer screening health behaviours

Whilst breast cancer screening has been implemented in many countries, uptake is often suboptimal. Consequently, several interventions targeting non-attendance behaviour have been developed. This systematic review aims to appraise the successes of interventions, identifying and comparing the specific techniques they use to modify health behaviours. A literature search (PROSPERO CRD42020212090) between January 2005 and December 2020 using PubMed, Medline, PsycInfo, EMBASE and Google Scholar was conducted. Studies which investigated patient-facing interventions to increase attendance at breast cancer screening appointments were included. Details regarding the intervention delivery, theoretical background, and contents were extracted, as was quantitative data on the impact on attendance rates, compared to control measures. Interventions were also coded using the Behavioural Change Techniques (BCT) Taxonomy. In total fifty-four studies, detailing eighty interventions, met the inclusion criteria. Only 50% of interventions reported a significant impact on screening attendance. Thirty-two different BCTs were used, with 'prompts/cues' the most commonly incorporated (77.5%), however techniques from the group 'covert learning' had the greatest pooled effect size 0.12 (95% CI 0.05-0.19, P < 0·01, I2 = 91.5%). 'Problem solving' was used in the highest proportion of interventions that significantly increased screening attendance (69.0%). 70% of the interventions were developed using behavioural theories. These results show interventions aimed at increasing screening uptake are often unsuccessful. Commonly used approaches which focus upon explaining the consequences of not attending mammograms were often ineffective. Problem solving, however, has shown promise. These techniques should be investigated further, as should emerging technologies which can enable interventions to be feasibly translated at a population-level

Does body contouring after bariatric weight loss enhance quality of life? A systematic review of QOL studies

Massive weight loss following bariatric surgery can result in excess tissue, manifesting as large areas of redundant skin that can be managed by body contouring surgery. This study aims to quantify the effects of body contouring surgery on indicators of quality of life in post-bariatric patients. A systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature revealed on indices of quality of life in post-bariatric patients, before and after body contouring surgery. Body contouring surgery resulted in statistically significant improvements in physical functioning, psychological wellbeing and social functioning, as well as a reduction in BMI. Body contouring surgery offers a strategy to improve quality of life in patients suffering from the functional and psychosocial consequences of excess skin after bariatric surgery

A case for improved assessment of gut permeability: a meta-analysis quantifying the lactulose:mannitol ratio in coeliac and Crohn’s disease

Background: A widely used method in assessing small bowel permeability is the lactulose:mannitol test, where the lactulose:mannitol ratio (LMR) is measured. However, there is discrepancy in how the test is conducted and in the values of LMR obtained across studies. This meta-analysis aims to determine LMR in healthy subjects, coeliac and Crohn’s disease. Methods: A literature search was performed using PRISMA guidance to identify studies assessing LMR in coeliac or Crohn’s disease. 19 studies included in the meta-analysis measured gut permeability in coeliac disease, 17 studies in Crohn’s disease. Outcomes of interest were LMR values and comparisons of standard mean difference (SMD) and weighted mean difference (WMD) in healthy controls, inactive Crohn’s, active Crohn’s, treated coeliac and untreated coeliac. Pooled estimates of differences in LMR were calculated using the random effects model. Results: Pooled LMR in healthy controls was 0.014 (95% CI: 0.006–0.022) while pooled LMRs in untreated and treated coeliac were 0.133 (95% CI: 0.089–0.178) and 0.037 (95% CI: 0.019–0.055). In active and inactive Crohn’s disease, pooled LMRs were 0.093 (95% CI: 0.031–0.156) and 0.028 (95% CI: 0.015–0.041). Significant differences were observed in LMR between: (1) healthy controls and treated coeliacs (SMD = 0.409 95% CI 0.034 to 0.783, p = 0.032), (2) healthy controls and untreated coeliacs (SMD = 1.362 95% CI: 0.740 to 1.984, p < 0.001), (3) treated coeliacs and untreated coeliacs (SMD = 0.722 95% CI: 0.286 to 1.157, p = 0.001), (4) healthy controls and inactive Crohn’s (SMD = 1.265 95% CI: 0.845 to 1.686, p < 0.001), (5) healthy controls and active Crohn’s (SMD = 2.868 95% CI: 2.112 to 3.623, p < 0.001), and (6) active Crohn’s and inactive Crohn’s (SMD = 1.429 (95% CI: 0.580 to 2.278, p = 0.001). High heterogeneity was observed, which was attributed to variability in protocols used across different studies. Conclusion: The use of gut permeability measurements in screening and monitoring of coeliac and Crohn’s disease is promising. LMR is useful in performing this function with significant limitations. More robust alternative tests with higher degrees of clinical evidence are needed if measurements of gut permeability are to find widespread clinical use

Robotic surgery: disruptive innovation or unfulfilled promise? A systematic review and meta-analysis of the first 30 years

Background Robotic surgery has been in existence for 30 years. This study aimed to evaluate the overall perioperative outcomes of robotic surgery compared with open surgery (OS) and conventional minimally invasive surgery (MIS) across various surgical procedures. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched from 1990 up to October 2013 with no language restriction. Relevant review articles were hand-searched for remaining studies. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and prospective comparative studies (PROs) on perioperative outcomes, regardless of patient age and sex, were included. Primary outcomes were blood loss, blood transfusion rate, operative time, length of hospital stay, and 30-day overall complication rate. Results We identified 99 relevant articles (108 studies, 14,448 patients). For robotic versus OS, 50 studies (11 RCTs, 39 PROs) demonstrated reduction in blood loss [ratio of means (RoM) 0.505, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.408–0.602], transfusion rate [risk ratio (RR) 0.272, 95 % CI 0.165–0.449], length of hospital stay (RoM 0.695, 0.615–0.774), and 30-day overall complication rate (RR 0.637, 0.483–0.838) in favour of robotic surgery. For robotic versus MIS, 58 studies (21 RCTs, 37 PROs) demonstrated reduced blood loss (RoM 0.853, 0.736–0.969) and transfusion rate (RR 0.621, 0.390–0.988) in favour of robotic surgery but similar length of hospital stay (RoM 0.982, 0.936–1.027) and 30-day overall complication rate (RR 0.988, 0.822–1.188). In both comparisons, robotic surgery prolonged operative time (OS: RoM 1.073, 1.022–1.124; MIS: RoM 1.135, 1.096–1.173). The benefits of robotic surgery lacked robustness on RCT-sensitivity analyses. However, many studies, including the relatively few available RCTs, suffered from high risk of bias and inadequate statistical power. Conclusions Our results showed that robotic surgery contributed positively to some perioperative outcomes but longer operative times remained a shortcoming. Better quality evidence is needed to guide surgical decision making regarding the precise clinical targets of this innovation in the next generation of its use

A national survey assessing public readiness for digital health strategies against COVID-19 within the United Kingdom

There is concern that digital public health initiatives used in the management of COVID-19 may marginalise certain population groups. There is an overlap between the demographics of groups at risk of digital exclusion (older, lower social grade, low educational attainment and ethnic minorities) and those who are vulnerable to poorer health outcomes from SARS-CoV-2. In this national survey study (n=2040), we assessed how the UK population; particularly these overlapping groups, reported their preparedness for digital health strategies. We report, with respect to using digital information to make health decisions, that those over 60 are less comfortable (net comfort: 57%) than those between 18-39 (net comfort: 78%) and lower social grades are less comfortable (net comfort: 63%) than higher social grades (net comfort: 75%). With respect to a preference for digital over non-digital sources in seeking COVID-19 health information, those over 60 (net preference: 21%) are less inclined than those between 18-39 (net preference: 60%) and those of low educational attainment (net preference: 30%) are less inclined than those of high educational attainment (net preference: 52%). Lastly, with respect to distinguishing reliable digital COVID-19 information, lower social grades (net confidence: 55%) are less confident than higher social grades (net confidence: 68%) and those of low educational attainment (net confidence: 51%) are less confident than those of high educational attainment (net confidence: 71%). All reported differences are statistically significant (p<0.01) following multivariate regression modelling. This study suggests that digital public health approaches to COVID-19 have the potential to marginalise groups who are concurrently at risk of digital exclusion and poor health outcomes from SARS-CoV-2

Investigating the implementation of SMS and mobile messaging In Population Screening (The SIPS Study): Protocol for a Delphi Study

Background The use of mobile messaging including Short Message Service (SMS) and Web-based messaging in healthcare has grown significantly. Using messaging to facilitate patient communication has been advocated in several circumstances including population screening. These programmes, however, pose unique challenges to mobile communication, as messaging is often sent from a central hub to a diverse population with differing needs. Despite this, there is a paucity of robust frameworks to guide implementation. Objective This protocol describes the methods that will be used to develop a guide for the principles of use of mobile messaging for population screening programmes in England. Methods This modified Delphi study will be conducted in two parts: evidence synthesis and consensus generation. The former will incorporate a literature review of publications from 1st January 2000 to the present. This will elicit key themes to inform an online scoping questionnaire posed to a group of experts from academia, clinical medicine, industry and public health. Thematic analysis of free-text responses by two independent authors will elicit items to be used in the consensus generation. Patient and Public Involvement groups will be convened to ensure that a comprehensive item list is generated, which represents the public’s perspective. Each item will then be anonymously voted upon by experts as to its importance and feasibility of implementation in screening, during three rounds of a Delphi process. Consensus will be defined a priori at 70%, with items considered important and feasible eligible for inclusion into the final recommendation. A list of desirable items (important, but not currently feasible) will be developed to guide future work. Results The Institutional Review Board at Imperial College London has granted ethical approval (20IC6088). Results are expected to involve a list of recommendations to screening services with findings made available to screening services through Public Health England. This study will thus provide a formal guideline for the use of mobile messaging in screening services and provide future directions in this field. Discussion The use of mobile messaging has grown significantly across healthcare services, especially given the COVID-19 pandemic, but its implementation in screening programmes remains challenging. this modified Delphi approach with leading experts, will provide invaluable insights to facilitate incorporating messaging in these programmes, and create awareness of future developments in this area

Measuring more than just economic growth to improve well-being

It's official: The UK is in a recession. The economy has suffered its biggest slump on record with a drop in gross domestic product (GDP) of 20.4%. 1 This is going to have a significant impact on our health and well-being. It risks creating a spiralling decay as we know good health is not only a consequence, but also a condition for sustained and sustainable economic development. 2 In this way, the health of a nation creates a virtuous circle of improved health and improved economic prosperity. How we measure prosperity is therefore important and needs to be considered

The patient safety practices of emergency medical teams in disaster zones: a systematic analysis

Introduction: Disaster zone medical relief has been criticised for poor quality care, lack of standardisation and accountability. Traditional patient safety practices of Emergency Medical Teams (EMT) in disaster zones were not well understood. Improving the quality of healthcare in disaster zones has gained importance within global health policy. Ascertaining patient safety practices of EMTs in disaster zones may identify areas of practice that can be improved. Methods: A systematic search of OvidSP, Embase and Medline databases, key journals of interest, key grey-literature texts, the databases of the World Health Organisation (WHO), Médecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), and Google Scholar were performed. Descriptive studies, case reports, case series, prospective trials and opinion pieces were included with no limitation on date or language of publication. Results: There were 9,685 records, evenly distributed between the peer-reviewed and grey literature. Of these, 30 studies and 9 grey literature texts met the inclusion criteria and underwent qualitative synthesis. From these articles, 302 patient safety statements were extracted. Thematic analysis categorised these statements into 84 themes (total frequency 632). The most frequent themes were limb injury (9%), medical records (5.4%), surgery decision making (4.6%), medicines safety (4.4%) and protocol (4.4%) Conclusion: Patient safety practices of EMTs in disaster zones are weighted towards acute clinical care, particularly surgery. The management of Non-Communicable Disease (NCD) is underrepresented. There is widespread recognition of the need to improve medical record keeping. High-quality data and institutional level patient safety practices are lacking. There is no consensus on disaster zone specific performance indicators. These deficiencies represent opportunities to improve patient safety in disaster zones