Canadian Money Demand Functions Cointegration¨CRank Stability

This paper applies conventional tests (Johansen, 1995) and new tests (Chao and Phillips, 1999) for cointegration to long¨Crun money demand functions using historical Canadian data back to 1872. If cointegration is found, recently proposed tests by Quintos (1998a) for stability of the cointegration rank are carried out. The paper focuses on two spans of data: one span starting in 1872, the other in 1957 or 1968. Annual data are used for the former span, and annual and quarterly data for the latter. The preferred money demand specification involves M1.Vector error-correction; unknown change points; long spans of monetary data

Unit Roots, Nonlinear Cointegration and Purchasing Power Parity

We test long¨Crun PPP within a general model of cointegration of linear and nonlinear form. Nonlinear cointegration is tested with rank tests proposed by Breitung (2001). We start with determining the order of integration of each variable in the model, applying relatively powerful DF¨CGLS tests of Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock (1996). Using monthly data from the post¨CBretton Woods era for G¨C10 countries, the evidence leads to a rejection of PPP for almost all countries. In several cases the price variables are driven by permanent shocks that differ from the ones that drive the exchange rate. Also, nonlinear cointegration cannot solve the PPP puzzle.Purchasing power parity; unit roots; nonlinear cointegration

Field testing of strategies for fire blight control in organic fruit growing

In organic fruit growing effective control strategies are needed to prevent blossom infections by the fire blight pathogen Erwinia amylovora. Many potential control agents are under discussion and have been tested in vitro and in vivo. 19 out of 27 tested preparations showed a high efficacy against E. amylovora in vitro. Nevertheless, on detached apple blossoms only 7 of them led to a symptom reduction by more than 50%. In six field trials conducted according to the EPPO guideline PP1/166(3) BlossomProtect (82%), Myco-sin (65%) and Funguran (58%) had the highest efficiency. In 2006 and 2007, strategies to integrate BlossomProtect in spray schedules of organic apple production have been tested. The use of sulphur or lime-sulphur before or after BlossomProtect did not influence the efficiency of BlossomProtect, which showed that fire blight control is possible without compromising apple scab control. The addition of Cutisan to BlossomProtect reduced fruit russet. An alternating use of BlossomProtect and Myco-sin was shown to be possible

A Closer Look at Long Run Money Demand

We study annual United States data from 1869 or 1900 to 1999. We find evidence for a well-specified and stable model of money demand with data from 1946 to 1999. We carry out diagnostic and stability tests, including nonlinearity tests. A linear cointegration model with the monetary base performs better than a model with M1. A specification with M2 is not supported. We use real GNP as the scale variable and a short term interest rate as the opportunity cost measure. We estimate an income elasticity of .86 and an interest rate elasticity of -.44 for the monetary base.

Longer-term effects of monetary growth on real and nominal variables, major industrial countries, 1880-2001

Abstract: We study how fluctuations in money growth correlate with fluctuations in real and nominal output growth and inflation. We pick cycles from each time series that last 2 to 8 (business cycles) and 8 to 40 (longer-term cycles) years, using band-pass filters. We employ a data set from 1880 to 2001 for eleven countries, without gaps. Fluctuations in money growth do not play a systematic and important role at the business cycle frequency. However, money growth leads or contemporaneously affects nominal output growth and inflation in the longer run. This result holds despite differences in policies and institutions across countries. JEL Classification: E32 to 8 year cycles, 8 to 40 year cycles, Band-pass filters

Empirical evidence on inflation and unemployment in the long run

We examine the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the long run, using quarterly US data from 1952 to 2010. Using a band-pass filter approach, we find strong evidence that a positive relationship exists, where inflation leads unemployment by some 3 to 3 1/2 years, in cycles that last from 8 to 25 or 50 years. Our statistical approach is atheoretical in nature, but provides evidence in accordance with the predictions of Friedman (1977) and the recent New Monetarist model of Berentsen, Menzio, and Wright (2011): the relationship between inflation and unemployment is positive in the long run.Inflation, Unemployment, Long-Run Phillips Curve

Kinetics of electron-positron pair plasmas using an adaptive Monte Carlo method

A new algorithm for implementing the adaptive Monte Carlo method is given. It is used to solve the relativistic Boltzmann equations that describe the time evolution of a nonequilibrium electron-positron pair plasma containing high-energy photons and pairs. The collision kernels for the photons as well as pairs are constructed for Compton scattering, pair annihilation and creation, bremsstrahlung, and Bhabha & Moller scattering. For a homogeneous and isotropic plasma, analytical equilibrium solutions are obtained in terms of the initial conditions. For two non-equilibrium models, the time evolution of the photon and pair spectra is determined using the new method. The asymptotic numerical solutions are found to be in a good agreement with the analytical equilibrium states. Astrophysical applications of this scheme are discussed.Comment: 43 pages, 7 postscript figures, to appear in the Astrophysical Journa

XPS characterization of silver electrodes and catalyst for oxygen reduction

The combined analysis of the silver GDE using an ex-situ surface sensitive technique (XPS) and in-situ electrochemical measurements (EIS, CV) show that the performance of the silver GDE is significantly influenced by the degree of degradation of the electrodes, e. g., the reduction of the active surface due to the decomposition of the PTFE. These findings indicate a different degree of decomposition of the PTFE on the on the GDE

The Term Spread International Evidence of Non-Linear Adjustment

This study tests whether changes in the short-term interest rate can best be modelled in a nonlinear fashion. We argue that there are good theoretical and empirical reasons for adopting this strategy. Using monthly data from several industrialized countries, namely Canada, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, and US, we show that the short-term interest rate movements are better explained, usually via the exponential smooth transition autoregression (ESTR). Unlike the existing literature on non-linear estimation, we consider a number of candidates for the transition variable. These include: an error correction term, estimated from an underlying cointegrating relationship predicted by the expectations hypothesis, the US spread, the domestic spread, inflation and output growth forecasts, and deviations from an inflation target in the case of Canada, the UK and Sweden. The sample spans the period from 1960-1998. We cannot reject non-linearity in the behavior of interest rate changes most often when the (lagged) domestic spread serves as the transition variable. In the case of the inflation targeting countries in our sample, the most appropriate transition variable can be the deviation from the publicly announced inflation target. We supplement estimates with extensive diagnostic testing to ensure that we can reject the linear alternative with reasonable confidence. We believe that changes in central bank policies and in the reaction of market participants over time to such changes argue in favor of the non-linear estimation approach. We would also argue that any model of the term spread over a fairly long span of time necessitates resort to non-linear estimation methods.

Estimating the COGARCH(1,1) model - a first go

We suggest moment estimators for the parameters of a continuous time GARCH(1,1) process based on equally spaced observations. Using the fact that the increments of the COGARCH(1,1) process are ergodic, the resulting estimators are consistent. We investigate the quality of our estimators in a simulation study based on the compound Poisson driven COGARCH model. The estimated volatility with corresponding residual analysis is also presented