TIME SERIES FORECAST MODELS FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET IN A DEVELOPING ECONOMY

Technicalities in foreign exchange forecasting have been of interest to investors and academia, particularly in a developing economy. Data of foreign exchange are time series in nature and several techniques have been developed to modeling and forecasting foreign exchange rates. In this study, Nigeria's foreign exchange rate against three world-leading currencies (US Dollars, Euro and Pounds Sterling) are modeled with ARIMA, Auto. arima, Box-Cox, random walk forecast, and Exponential Smoothing and subjected to comparative tests using  Diebold-Mariano criteria with a modern model time series model. The empirical analysis shows that that the modern model outperforms some of the other techniques in forecasting Nigeria exchange rates against world-leading currencies particularly when the forecast horizon is low

Assessment of Students' Use of Information and Communication Technology Facilities: A Case Study of Obafemi Awolowo University Library

This research work is being conducted to expose some of the inhibiting factors that are hindering the impact of ICT in Nigerian academic libraries considering OAU library as a case study. This study begins with an investigation on ICT literacy and its application for library services by students. The study examines the utility and ascertain the reasons for the use and non-use of internet resources at the library, OAU. The study also assess the purpose and relevance of the use of ICT in the Hezekiah Oluwasanmi Library, OAU. This study gathered information through questionnaires. The population of the study was made up of purposively selected 100 students. Data was analysed using univariate and bivariate analysis. The results for the analysis showed that respondents agreed that most of the ICT facilities are available and functional. It also revealed that ICT literacy is required to effectively utilize the ICT applications in the library. Based on the findings, it was recommended that individuals should be sensitized on the availability of ICT facilities and be encouraged to use them for their personal and library services. Students should constantly use computer system and the internet in order to attain ICT literacy proficiency, they should also be sponsored for ICT literacy training, library management software should be acquired and installed for efficient and effective library services; funds, ICT infrastructure and training opportunities should be provided by the government, NGOs and other stakeholders

Comparison of Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) And Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model (BVAR) Models for Modelling Economic Growth

The study attempted to develop forecasting model for inflation as well as IPP growth in a multivariate time series Bayesian framework, known as Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model. The main advantage of using this model is the incorporation of prior information which may boost the forecasting performance of the model. The results revealed that the diagnostics results of the models are appear to be satisfactory and out of sample percentage root mean square error (PRMSE) for WPI for four quarters is 1.4932 percent, whereas, for IIP, it is 4.2508 percent. Further, for selecting the a suitable values for lambda and theta, we have tried various combination for these parameters between 0 to 1 and based on PRMSE, we found that lambda=0.3 and theta=0.9 are suitable values for BVAR(2). Therefore, BVAR(2) with lambda=0.3 and theta=0.9 was fitted. From the results, it can be observed that, out of sample PRMSE has been reduced while using BVAR in both the cases i.e. for WPI as well as IIP.Based on the comparison of forecasting performance of VAR and BVAR model, measured in terms of out-of-sample percentage root mean square error, it was found that BVAR model performed better than VAR model in case of inflation as well as IPP growth forecas

The spatial genetic differentiation of the legume pod borer, Maruca vitrata F. (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) populations in West Africa

The legume pod borer, Maruca vitrata, is an endemic insect pest that causes significant yield loss to the cowpea crop in West Africa. The application of population genetic tools is important in the management of insect pests but such data on M. vitrata is lacking. We applied a set of six microsatellite markers to assess the population structure of M. vitrata collected at five sites from Burkina Faso, Niger and Nigeria. Observed polymorphisms ranged from one (marker 3393) to eight (marker 32008) alleles per locus. Observed and expected heterozygosities ranged from 0.0 to 0.8 and 0.0 to 0.6, respectively. Three of the loci in samples from Nigeria and Burkina Faso deviated significantly from Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE), whereas no loci deviated significantly in samples from Niger. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) indicated that 67.3% level of the genetic variation was within individuals compared to 17.3% among populations. A global estimate of FST=0.1 (ENA corrected FST=0.1) was significant (P≤0.05) and corroborated by pairwise FST values that were significant among all possible comparisons. A significant correlation was predicted between genetic divergence and geographic distance between subpopulations (R2=0.6, P=0.04), and cluster analysis by the program STRUCTURE predicted that co-ancestry of genotypes were indicative of three distinct populations. The spatial genetic variance among M. vitrata in West Africa may be due to limited gene flow, south-north seasonal movement pattern or other reproductive barriers. This information is important for the cultural, chemical and biological control strategies for managing M. vitrata

Using Vignettes in Qualitative Research to Explore Barriers and Facilitating Factors to the Uptake of Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission Services in Rural Tanzania: A Critical Analysis.

Vignettes are short stories about a hypothetical person, traditionally used within research (quantitative or qualitative) on sensitive topics in the developed world. Studies using vignettes in the developing world are emerging, but with no critical examination of their usefulness in such settings. We describe the development and application of vignettes to a qualitative investigation of barriers to uptake of prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) HIV services in rural Tanzania in 2012, and critique the successes and challenges of using the technique in this setting. Participatory Learning and Action (PLA) group activities (3 male; 3 female groups from Kisesa, north-west Tanzania) were used to develop a vignette representing realistic experiences of an HIV-infected pregnant woman in the community. The vignette was discussed during in-depth interviews with 16 HIV-positive women, 3 partners/relatives, and 5 HIV-negative women who had given birth recently. A critical analysis was applied to assess the development, implementation and usefulness of the vignette. The majority of in-depth interviewees understood the concept of the vignette and felt the story was realistic, although the story or questions needed repeating in some cases. In-depth interviewers generally applied the vignette as intended, though occasionally were unsure whether to steer the conversation back to the vignette character when participants segued into personal experiences. Interviewees were occasionally confused by questions and responded with what the character should do rather than would do; also confusing fieldworkers and presenting difficulties for researchers in interpretation. Use of the vignette achieved the main objectives, putting most participants at ease and generating data on barriers to PMTCT service uptake. Participants' responses to the vignette often reflected their own experience (revealed later in the interviews). Participatory group research is an effective method for developing vignettes. A vignette was incorporated into qualitative interview discussion guides and used successfully in rural Africa to draw out barriers to PMTCT service use; vignettes may also be valuable in HIV, health service use and drug adherence research in this setting. Application of this technique can prove challenging for fieldworkers, so thorough training should be provided prior to its use

Constraints to exclusive breastfeeding practice among breastfeeding mothers in Southwest Nigeria: implications for scaling up

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The practice of exclusive breastfeeding is still low despite the associated benefits. Improving the uptake and appropriating the benefits will require an understanding of breastfeeding as an embodied experience within a social context. This study investigates breastfeeding practices and experiences of nursing mothers and the roles of grandmothers, as well as the work-related constraints affecting nurses in providing quality support for breastfeeding mothers in Southwest Nigeria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a concurrent mixed method approach, a structured questionnaire was administered to 200 breastfeeding mothers. In-depth interviews were also held with breastfeeding mothers (11), nurses (10) and a focus group discussion session with grandmothers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Breastfeeding was perceived as essential to baby's health. It strengthens the physical and spiritual bond between mothers and their children. Exclusive breastfeeding was considered essential but demanding. Only a small proportion (19%) of the nursing mothers practiced exclusive breastfeeding. The survey showed the major constraints to exclusive breastfeeding to be: the perception that babies continued to be hungry after breastfeeding (29%); maternal health problems (26%); fear of babies becoming addicted to breast milk (26%); pressure from mother-in-law (25%); pains in the breast (25%); and the need to return to work (24%). In addition, the qualitative findings showed that significant others played dual roles with consequences on breastfeeding practices. The desire to practice exclusive breastfeeding was often compromised shortly after child delivery. Poor feeding, inadequate support from husband and conflicting positions from the significant others were dominant constraints. The nurses decried the effects of their workload on providing quality supports for nursing mothers.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Breastfeeding mothers are faced with multiple challenges as they strive to practice exclusive breastfeeding. Thus, scaling up of exclusive breastfeeding among mothers requires concerted efforts at the macro, meso and micro levels of the Nigerian society.</p

An assessment of the risk of Bt-cowpea to non-target organisms in West Africa

Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata Walp.) is the most economically important legume crop in arid regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Cowpea is grown primarily by subsistence farmers who consume the leaves, pods and grain on farm or sell grain in local markets. Processed cowpea foods such as akara (a deep-fat fried fritter) are popular in the rapidly expanding urban areas. Demand far exceeds production due, in part, to a variety of insect pests including, in particular, the lepidopteran legume pod borer (LPB) Maruca vitrata. Genetically engineered Bt-cowpea, based on cry1Ab (Event 709) and cry2Ab transgenes, is being developed for use in sub-Saharan Africa to address losses from the LBP. Before environmental release of transgenic cowpeas, the Bt Cry proteins they express need to be assessed for potential effects on non-target organisms, particularly arthropods. Presented here is an assessment of the potential effects of those Cry proteins expressed in cowpea for control of LPB. Based on the history of safe use of Bt proteins, as well as the fauna associated with cultivated and wild cowpea in sub-Saharan Africa results indicate negligible effects on non-target organisms