The Diffusion and Adoption of Green Revolution Technologies: Lessons and policy implications from Pigeonpea farmers in Kenya

Significant advances have been made in generating high yielding varieties which are part of the so called Green revolution technologies. Raising hopes for a pulse green revolution, a number of improved varieties of pigeonpea have also been developed and released in Africa. The key motivation of this study is that, despite their perceived advantages in raising productivity, the diffusion and adoption of such varieties remains low We apply a quasi-experimental approach to data obtained from rural Kenya to assess the patterns of adoption of improved pigeonpea varieties and their determinants. The sample adoption rate of improved pigeonpea is found to be 36% while the potential adoption rate is estimated at 48%. The adoption gap resulting from the incomplete exposure to the improved pigeonpea is 12%. Adoption is found to be prominent among farmers with residences close to the agricultural offices, and among younger and wealthier farmers. The findings suggest that there is scope for increasing the adoption of improved pigeonpea, especially among young farmers once they are exposed to the new technologies and once the associated policy and technical constraints are addresse

Testing Theories of Change for Dryland Cereals: The HOPE project in central Tanzania 2009-2012, Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series Number 37

The Harnessing Opportunities for Productivity Enhancement (HOPE) project was based on a market-led Theory of Change in which farmers adopted new technology for sorghum and millets in response to market demand. This Theory of Change was tested using panel survey data for 360 farm households in central Tanzania covering the crop seasons 2009/10 and 2011/12. Because improved varieties of finger millet were unavailable in 2009, the analysis focused primarily on sorghum. Propensity score matching was used to obtain a matched sample of treatment and control households, which were compared to estimate the unconditional impact of the project, augmented by regression analysis using the matched samples to obtain robust results. HOPE significantly increased the probability of knowing at least one improved sorghum variety by 9.5 %, and the share of farmers adopting improved varieties of sorghum by 13.2 %. However, HOPE had no significant positive impact on the area, yield, and output of sorghum, or improve farmers’ technical efficiency in producing sorghum. HOPE did not increase the use of commercial channels for the supply of improved seed. Finally, HOPE increased neither the commercialization of sorghum, which remained primarily a food crop, nor of finger millet, which was already a cash crop before the start of the project. These findings show that enhancing productivity for dryland cereals requires not just improved varieties but also improved crop management, and that adoption of improved varieties is not driven exclusively by market demand but by the need for household food security. These findings also challenge the relevance of a universal Theory of Change for dryland cereals in Eastern and Southern Africa. Finally, they highlight the need for a revised Theory of Change that reflects the diversity of farmers’ objectives in growing these crops and of market opportunities within the region

Social networks and the adoption of agricultural innovations: The case of improved cereal cultivars in Central Tanzania, Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series Number 18

Literature on the adoption of agricultural innovations highlights the importance exposure to these technologies for the adoption decision of small scale farmers. This study assesses the relevance of exposure and other constraints in the adoption of improved sorghum and maize cultivars in Central Tanzania. Specifically, we analyze the determinants of exposure to improved varieties; and of adoption itself, focusing more on the role of social networks. We use survey data collected from 345 farmers between September and November 2012. We apply Poisson models to assess exposure, and average treatment effect procedures to analyze adoption. Our results show that about 79% and 74% of the respondents are exposed to at least one improved variety of sorghum and maize respectively. The average intensity of exposure (number of improved cultivars a farmer is exposed to) was 1.7 for sorghum and 1.8 for maize. Farmer networks are found to be a key source of variety information, and exchange of this information among farmers is triggered when a farmer sights a variety grown in a network member’s field. Most farmers consider improved varieties of both crops generally better than traditional ones. However, while 83% of farmers think improved varieties of maize are better than traditional ones, only 54% of farmers think so for sorghum. The size of a farmer’s network is found to positively influence their intensity of exposure to improved sorghum and open-pollinated maize varieties, but not to maize hybrids. This demonstrates that farmer networks facilitate higher exposure to seed technologies with mostly missing or malfunctioning markets. We find that farmers have substantial information networks outside their own villages, and it is these often understudied networks that determine the intensity of exposure. The strength of network connections with village administrators positively affects intensity of exposure to sorghum varieties, while network connections with agricultural extension officers influence intensity of exposure positively for sorghum varieties and maize hybrids. Other determinants of exposure are age and education of household head, and household ownership of information and communication assets. Female farmers have less exposure to maize hybrids than their male counterparts. On adoption, we find that adoption rates are pretty low – just about 42% in the case of sorghum and 60% for maize. After accounting for non-exposure and selection biases, the estimated population adoption rate is 52% for sorghum and 71% for maize, implying adoption gaps of 9.3 and 10.9 percentage points, respectively. Sorghum networks positively influence adoption even after accounting for their role in exposure. However, it is the intra-village and not inter-village networks that produce this effect. Intensity of exposure influences adoption positively for both crops. Households with more female adults are more likely to adopt improved sorghum, while those with more male adults are more likely to adopt improved maize. Poor soil fertility negatively affects adoption of improved sorghum, while non-farm income activities and size of maize farm positively influence adoption of maize varieties. Farmers mentioned seed availability followed by perceived susceptibility to pests as the most limiting factors to adoption. The importance of these reasons changes if we compare farmers without past adoption experience to those who have ever adopted. These results raise a number of implications for policy design and further research, which are discussed in the last chapter of this paper. Keywords: social networks, exposure, adoptio

Harnessing Opportunities for Productivity Enhancement for Sorghum & Millets (HOPE): Baseline Survey, Tanzania, Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series Number 7

The baseline survey was made in Singida Rural and Kondoa districts of Central Tanzania. A random sample of 360 farm households was sampled, divided into treatment, diffusion, and control groups. The survey was conducted in late 2010 and the results refer to the 2009-2010 agricultural year. A table with key quantitative findings is provided at the end of this summary. Socio-economic profile: The majorities of household heads were male, and most had upper primary education. On average they farmed 2.9 ha, leaving 2.1 ha uncultivated. The primary occupation was agriculture but almost half the sample households had income from non-farm sources. Households owned farm assets valued at Tsh 237,000 and livestock assets valued at 592, 000. Almost half the households owned mobile phones. Less than one-fifth of households surveyed had access to formal credit. Average per capita income was $247 per year, equivalent to$0.7 per day, or well below the $1 per day poverty line. Access to agricultural information: Only 15 % of sample households reported participation in any form of technology transfer, such as farmer field days or demonstrations. Government extension officers are the most important source of information about new technology but contact is infrequent and neighbors remain an important source of information. Crop production: About three-quarters of the sample households planted sorghum and finger millet. Significantly fewer households planted finger millet in Kondoa, and significantly fewer households planted maize in Singida. About four in ten plots were planted using seed saved from the previous harvest. Yields of sorghum averaged 0.46 tons ha-1. No significant difference was found between the yield of local and improved sorghum varieties. Yields of finger millet and pearl millet averaged 0.68 and 0.45 tons ha-1 respectively. Only 1 % of growers applied inorganic fertilizer to sorghum or millets, and about one-fifth broadcast seed rather than row-planting. About one-third of growers used in situ water harvesting, but none used integrated Striga management. Profitability: Finger millet had the highest gross margin (203,193 Tsh ha-1), followed by maize (145,542 Tsh ha-1), and sorghum (108,330 Tsh ha-1). These figures are based on cash costs and exclude the costs of family labor. Adoption: Over half the sample households knew at least one improved variety of sorghum, but only one-third grew an improved variety. The major reasons for non-adoption were unavailability of seed and susceptibility to pests and diseases. The main traits farmers required for sorghum and finger millets were high yield, early maturity, and drought resistance. At the time of the survey, however, improved varieties of finger millet had not yet been released. Utilization: Sorghum was primarily a food crop with only 14 % of the harvest being sold whereas millets were primarily a cash crop with 81 % being sold. Nine-tenths of finger millet sold was sold at the farmgate. Low market prices were reported as a major constraint on sales of both crops. However, only 4 % of farmers were members of a Producer Marketing Grou

Dryland Cereals and Household Food Security in Tanzania: Potential and Constraints of Improved Sorghum Cultivars Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series 13

More than one third of the population in Africa is still facing undernourishment and malnutrition. While poor and food-insecure people are most often living in unfavorable agricultural zones, such as semi-arid areas, only few studies have assessed the potential of well adapted dryland cereals to contribute to local food security. Here, we analyze the case of sorghum in Tanzania, and particularly focus on the role of improved sorghum cultivars. Using survey data from smallholder farmers and econometric techniques, we show that sorghum contributes to the food supply of a household. Despite the promise of higher yields and better resistance of improved sorghum cultivars to some biotic and abiotic stresses, adoption rates are, however, still low. Our results indicate that access to information and diversified networks constitute serious adoption constraints. National extension systems are a major bottleneck in overcoming such constraint

Determinants of Agricultural Technology adoption: the Case of Improved Pigeonpea Varieties in Tanzania

If dryland legumes are to meet the expectations of reducing poverty and hunger in the semi-arid tropics, there will be need for a full understanding of their potential for diffusion and the barriers to adoption. We apply a program evaluation technique to data obtained from Tanzania to derive estimates of the actual and potential adoption rates of improved pigeonpea varieties and their determinants. The study reveals that only 33% of the sampled farmers were aware of the improved pigeonpea varieties which consequently restricted the sample adoption rate of improved varieties to only 19%. The potential adoption rate of improved pigeonpea if all farmers had been exposed to improved varieties is estimated at 62% and the adoption gap resulting from the incomplete exposure of the population to the improved pigeonpea is 43%. We further find that the awareness of improved varieties is mainly influenced by attendance of Participatory Variety Selection activities. The adoption of improved varieties is more pronounced among farmers with smaller landholdings suggesting that farmers facing land pressure intensify pigeonpea production through the adoption of improved high yielding varieties. The findings are indicative of the relatively large demand for improved pigeonpea varieties suggesting that there is scope for increasing their adoption rate in Tanzania once the farmers are made aware of the existence of the technologies

Why invest in Research & Development for sorghum and millets? The business case for East and Southern Africa

This article synthesizes recent research by ICRISAT and its partners to analyse the business case for sorghum and millets in ESA and the wider strategy of commercialization on which this is based. The business case is stronger for sorghum because of its greater impact on poverty and food security, but millets are better suited to a strategy of commercialization. Commercial demand for millets is primarily driven by specialty markets for flour while that for sorghum is limited to beer. Demand for improved varieties is driven primarily by the need for early – maturity that shortens the hungry period. Future growth in production depends on increased opportunities for inter-regional trade

Hedgehog or fox? Theories of change for dryland cereals in Eastern Africa

International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics' (ICRISAT) research strategy for sorghum and millets is based on market-led development. We analyse the construction of this Theory of Change and its application to Eastern Africa using evidence from the Harnessing Opportunities for Productivity Enhancement (HOPE) project. We trace the evolution of market discourse in ICRISAT and ask why this discourse became so influential. The scale of commercialisation was limited, and its effect on intensification was mixed. A Green Revolution for dryland cereals in Eastern Africa may come not from improved varieties that give higher yields but that mature early and evade drought. A modified Theory of Change for dryland cereals requires greater recognition of household food security, farmer agency and regional heterogeneity

Social Networks and Household Dietary Diversity, Evidence from Smallholder Farmers in Kenya.

An important driver of household dietary diversity is nutrition knowledge which can be improved through access to nutrition information. However, in many rural areas, formal flow of nutrition information is limited, and social networks could play an important role as an informal source of such information. This paper evaluates effects of social network on household dietary diversity in Kenya. Cross sectional data collected from 198 farmers using multi stage sampling technique, was analysed using a Poisson regression model. The results show that the average household dietary diversity of an individual s network members has a positive effect on the dietary diversity of the individual. The effects are more when the network includes at least a strong tie. Household size and farm size also have a positive effect on household dietary diversity. These results imply that farmers social networks could be used as a complementary tool for effective delivery of nutrition education which targets to enhance nutritional quality. Acknowledgement : Acknowledgements The field research of this paper was jointly carried out by the University of Nairobi, University of Gottingen and Africa Harvest Biotech Foundation International. The authors warmly acknowledge the Germany Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture for funding this study through Agriculture and Dietary Diversity in Africa (ADDA) project (grant number ADDA-UGOE/UoN: 2813FSNU01) . Last but not list, our gratitude goes to Theda Godeke (University of Gottingen) for her support and guidance through the field research