By the numbers: data and measurement in community economic development

Highlights of a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke at the Greenlining Institute’s 13th Annual Economic Development Summit in Los Angeles, April 20, 2006.Community development

The financial crisis in S, M and L: three very different countries respond similarly

An examination of what Iceland, the United Kingdom and the United States went through last September and October during the financial crisis reveals some important differences and similarities.Financial crises

Panel discussion

"The Importance of Being Predictable" by John B. Taylor -- "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty" by Ben S. Bernanke -- "The Importance of Being Predictable" by William PooleMonetary policy

This is not your father's recession ... or is it?

The current declines in employment and income are consistent with what happened in previous recessions going back to 1969. Unique this time are the major drop in home prices and the proactive response by policymakers.Recessions

Great Moderation(s) and U.S. Interest Rates: Unconditional Evidence

The US economy experienced a Great Moderation sometime in the mid-1980s -- a fall in the volatility of output growth -- at the same time as a fall in both the volatility of inflation and the average rate of inflation. We put this moderation in historical perspective by comparing it to the post-WWII moderation. According to theory, the statistical moments -- both real and nominal -- that shift during these moderations in turn influence interest rates. We examine the predictions for shifts in the unconditional average of US interest rates. A central finding is that such shifts probably were due to changes in average inflation rather than to those in the variances of inflation and consumption growth.great moderation, asset pricing

The federal funds rate as an indicator of monetary policy: evidence from the 1980s

Recently, several economists have argued that movements in the federal funds rate are a good proxy for changes in monetary policy. In this article, Nathan Balke and Kenneth Emery critically examine this view and the evidence supporting it. Using simple vector autoregressions, they find that before 1980 the correlations between the federal funds rate and other important macroeconomic variables are consistent with a traditional monetary policy interpretation of the federal funds rate. However, they show that after 1982 the relationships between the federal funds rate and other macroeconomic variables change significantly. Most important, the correlations between the federal funds rate and other macroeconomic variables observed during the 1980s are not as consistent with a traditional monetary policy view of the federal funds rate as they were before 1980. ; Balke and Emery's work highlights how relationships between important macroeconomic variables can change when institutions or policy regimes change. While the federal funds rate may still be a good indicator of monetary policy, its relationship with other important macroeconomic variables is now clearly different from what it was before 1980.Interest rates ; Economic indicators

주의력 결핍/과잉행동장애의 신경 아형과 임상적 연관성

학위논문(석사) -- 서울대학교대학원 : 자연과학대학 뇌인지과학과, 2023. 2. 차지욱.Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is one of childhoods most common neurodevelopmental disorders, typically characterized by inattention, impulsivity, and hyperactivity. Despite previous studies exploring brain abnormalities in ADHD, these studies have frequently compared ADHD to a control group, potentially overlooking the heterogeneity within ADHD. Given the challenge posed by the varying symptoms of ADHD in making accurate diagnoses and providing effective treatments, it is essential to understand the heterogeneity in ADHD. To this end, this study uncovered the heterogeneity of the structural brain in ADHD using unsupervised clustering modeling. The clustering model revealed two distinct groups of ADHD. Then, this study investigated the relationship between the identified ADHD subgroups and clinical characteristics in prepubertal children (ages 9-10 years old; the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development study). Both subgroups showed higher levels of ADHD symptoms compared to non-ADHD individuals, but ADHD-2 had higher internalizing mood and genome-polygenic scores (GPSs) for bipolar disorder, BMI, and risk tolerance. The brain profiles of each subgroup showed that ADHD-1 had reduced cortical measures with only a few regions, while ADHD-2 had overall brain volume reductions and decreased surface area. Additionally, the longitudinal analysis revealed different developmental patterns, with ADHD-1 showing reductions in cortical and subcortical volume and ADHD-2 showing reduced cortical thickness. The findings suggest the possibility of different brain pathologies within ADHD and the need for further understanding to inform diagnostic strategies. In conclusion, this study sheds light on the heterogeneity of ADHD and the underlying brain differences between subgroups, providing insights for improved diagnostic and therapeutic approaches in the future.주의력 결핍/과잉행동 장애 (ADHD)는 아동기 가장 흔한 신경 발달 장애 중 하나로, 주의력 결핍, 충동, 과잉 행동을 특징으로 한다. ADHD 뇌에서의 구조적, 기능적 이상성은 대조군과 비교하여 발견되어 왔다. 그러나 이러한 접근은 ADHD내에서의 개인 변동성과 이질성을 반영하는데 어려움이 있다. 이를 해결하기 위해 본 연구에서는 감독되지 않은 클러스터링 모델을 사용하여 ADHD 뇌에서의 이질성을 분리하고, 분리된 하위 그룹이 서로 다른 임상적 특성과 관련되는지를 조사하고자 했다. 연구 결과, 클러스터링 모델은 두 개의 ADHD 하위 그룹을 밝혀냈다. 두 개의 ADHD 하위 그룹은 대조군과 비교하여 높은 ADHD 증상 수준을 보였지만, 양극성 장애, BMI, 위험 감수의 유전 점수와 내재화 기분 증상에 대해서는 ADHD-2 하위 그룹에서만 유의미한 높은 점수를 보였다. 각 하위 그룹의 뇌 프로파일에서는, ADHD-1은 일부 영역에서만 피질 측정치가 감소한 반면, ADHD-2는 전반적인 뇌 부피 및 표면적의 감소를 보였다. 종단 연구 결과에서는 ADHD-1은 피질 및 피질하 부피의 감소, ADHD-2 는 피질 두께의 감소를 주요 특징으로 하는 등 뇌 발달 과정에서의 패턴 차이를 보였다. 종합하면, 본 연구는 ADHD 뇌의 이질성과 하위 집단 간의 임상적 지표 및 뇌에서의 차이를 조명하여, 향후 진단 및 치료 접근법에 대한 통찰력을 제공한다.1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1. Background 1 1.1.1. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) 1 1.1.1.1. ADHD in childhood 1 1.1.1.2. Structural brain abnormalities in ADHD 2 1.1.1.3. Genetic influences on ADHD 4 1.1.2. Heterogeneity in ADHD 5 1.2. Purpose of Research 6 2. Materials and Methods 7 2.1. Participants 7 2.2. ADHD 8 2.2.1. ADHD assessment 8 2.2.2. Comorbid disorders 9 2.2.3. Medication treatment 11 2.3. Neuropsychological measures 12 2.3.1. Cognitive measures 12 2.3.2. Behavioral measures 13 2.4. Missing data imputation 14 2.5. MRI data acquisition and processing 15 2.5.1. Structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) 15 2.5.2. Diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI) 16 2.5.3. Quality assessment and control 16 2.6. Genetic data acquisition and processing 17 2.6.1. Genotype data 17 2.6.2. Genetic relatedness inference 18 2.6.3. Genome-wide polygenic scores (GPSs) 18 2.7. Dissecting the heterogeneity of the brain structure in ADHD 19 2.7.1. Dimensionality reduction 19 2.7.2. Agglomerative hierarchical clustering analysis 20 2.8. Relation to ADHD subgroups and neuropsychological measures 20 3. Results 22 3.1. Demographic characteristics 22 3.2. Dissecting the heterogeneity of the ADHD brain 24 3.3. Relation to ADHD subgroups and demographic, cognitive and behavioral measures 26 3.4. Relation to ADHD subgroups and GPS measures 31 3.5. Relation to ADHD subgroups and brain measures 34 3.6. Developmental changes of each ADHD subgroup 38 4. DISCUSSION 42 4.1. Summary 42 4.2. Implication and perspective 43 4.3. Limitations and future research direction 45 4.4. Conclusion 47 CONTRIBUTION 48 BIBLIOGRAPHY 49 국문초록 61 ACKNOWLEDGMENT 62석

Effect of S&P500'S return on emerging markets: Turkish experience

This study assesses the effect of S&P500 return on the Istanbul Stock Exchange within a dynamic framework. In order lo capture The effect, a block recursive VAR model is built. allowing that S&P500 affects the ISE returns with its current and lag values but not vice versa. The estimates from daily data suggest that returns on S&P500 affect ISE return positively up to four days

Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment

Most empirical analyses of monetary policy have been confined to frameworks in which the Federal Reserve is implicitly assumed to exploit only a limited amount of information, despite the fact that the Fed actively monitors literally thousands of economic time series. This article explores the feasibility of incorporating richer information sets into the analysis, both positive and normative, of Fed policymaking. We employ a factor-model approach, developed by Stock and Watson (1999a,b), that permits the systematic information in large data sets to be summarized by relatively few estimated factors. With this framework, we reconfirm Stock and Watson's result that the use of large data sets can improve forecast accuracy, and we show that this result does not seem to depend on the use of finally revised (as opposed to 'real-time') data. We estimate policy reaction functions for the Fed that take into account its data-rich environment and provide a test of the hypothesis that Fed actions are explained solely by its forecasts of inflation and real activity. Finally, we explore the possibility of developing an 'expert system' that could aggregate diverse information and provide benchmark policy settings.