Assessment of fibrotic burden among chronic hepatitis B virus-infected patients with normal transaminase level

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A Tool to Measure the Impact of Inaction Toward Elimination of Hepatitis C: A Case Study in Korea

Background and aims: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) and its sequelae present a significant source of economic and societal burden. Introduction of highly effective curative therapies has made HCV elimination attainable. The study used a predictive model to assess the clinical and economic impact of implementing national screening and treatment policies toward HCV elimination in Korea. Methods: A previously validated Markov disease progression model of HCV infection was employed to analyze the clinical and economic impact of various strategies for HCV diagnosis and treatment in Korea. In this analysis, the model compared the clinical and economic outcomes of current HCV-related interventions in Korea (7,000 patients treated and 4,200 patients newly diagnosed annually, starting in 2017) to four elimination scenarios: 1) initiating sufficient diagnosis and treatment interventions to meet the World Health Organization's GHSS elimination targets by 2030, 2) delaying initiation of interventions by one year, 3) delaying initiation of interventions by two years and 4) accelerating initiation of interventions to meet elimination targets by 2025. Modelled historical incidence of HCV was calibrated to match a viremic HCV prevalence of 0.44% in 2009. Elimination scenarios required 24,000 treatments and 34,000 newly diagnosed patients annually, starting in 2018, to reach the 2030 targets. Results: Compared to current "status quo" interventions, elimination (or accelerated elimination by 2025) would avert 23,700 (27,000) incident cases of HCV, 1,300 (1,400) liver-related deaths (LRDs) and 2,900 (3,100) cases of end-stage liver disease (ESLD) over the 2017-2030 time period. Postponing interventions by one (or two) years would avert 21,100 (18,600) new HCV infections, 920 (660) LRDs and 2,000 (1,400) cases of ESLD by 2030. Following elimination or accelerated elimination strategies would save 860 million USD or 1.1 billion USD by 2030, respectively, compared to the status quo, requiring an up-front investment in prevention that decreases spending on liver-related complications and death. Conclusions: By projecting the impact of interventions and tracking progress toward GHSS elimination targets using modelling, we demonstrate that Korea can prevent significant morbidity, mortality and spending on HCV. Results should serve as the backbone for policy and decision-making, demonstrating how aggressive prevention measures are designed to reduce future costs and increase the health of the public.ope

Proposal of a New Risk Score for Patients Treated with Transarterial Chemoembolization due to Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Curative Resection: A Multicenter Study

Background/aims: Prognostic models are lacking for patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following surgical resection. This study devised and validated a new hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic (HAP) score optimized for use in patients undergoing treatment with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for recurrence subsequent to surgical resection of HCC. Methods: Training cohort (n=424) and validation cohort (n=350) patients with recurrent HCC after resection treated with TACE between 2003 and 2016 were enrolled. Cox regression and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analyses were used to identify risk factors for survival and to calculate the predictive performance of risk scores, respectively. Results: The median age of the study population was 59.2 years. α-Fetoprotein >400 ng/mL (hazard ratio [HR]=1.815), serum albumin ≤3.5 g/dL (HR=1.966), tumor number ≥2 (HR=1.425), tumor size >5 cm at resection or recurrence (HR=1.356), segmental portal vein invasion at resection or recurrence (HR=2.032), and time from resection to recurrence ≤1 years (HR=1.849) independently predicted survival (all p<0.05). The postoperative HAP (pHAP) model based on the rounded HRs of these variables showed an AUC of 0.723 for predicting survival at 3 years, which was significantly higher than AUCs of other HAP-based models, including HAP, modified HAP, and modified HAP-II scores (0.578-0.621) (all p<0.05). The accuracy of pHAP was maintained in the entire cohort (n=774; AUC=0.776 at 3 years). Conclusions: A new pHAP score optimized for patients treated with TACE due to recurrent HCC after resection showed acceptable accuracy and was externally validated. Further studies of means by which to select treatment options other than TACE for high-risk patients according to pHAP scores are warranted.ope

Survival Estimates after Stopping Sorafenib in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: NEXT Score Development and Validation

Background/Aims: Limited information is available regarding patient survival after sorafenib discontinuation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Thus, we developed and validated a novel survival prediction model. Methods: Clinical data from 409 patients with HCC who stopped taking sorafenib between September 2008 and February 2015 were reviewed. Results: In the training cohort, four factors were independent negative predictors of survival (p<0.05). Based on the β regression coefficient of each factor, we established the NEXT score (Survival after Stopping Nexavar Treatment), allocating 1 point each for an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score ≥2, Child-Pugh class B or C, serum sodium ≤135 mEq/L, and α-fetoprotein 〉400 ng/mL. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values to predict 1-, 3-, and 6-month survival rates were 0.805, 0.809, and 0.774, respectively, in the training cohort and 0.783, 0.728, and 0.673, respectively, in the validation cohort (n=137). When the training and validation cohorts were stratified into three risk groups (NEXT score 0 [low-risk] vs 1 to 2 [intermediate-risk] vs 3 to 4 [high-risk]), survival differed significantly between the groups (p＜0.05, log-rank test). Conclusions: In patients with HCC, survival after stopping sorafenib is poor. However, risk estimates based on a new "NEXT score" may help predict survival and prognosis even in patients who discontinue sorafenib treatment.ope

Influence of hepatic steatosis on the outcomes of patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir and tenofovir

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The influence of hepatic steatosis (HS) on chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is unclear. We evaluated the influence of the degree of HS, assessed using the controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) of transient elastography (TE), on treatment outcomes in CHB patients initiated on antiviral therapy. METHODS: A total of 334 patients who were initiated on entecavir or tenofovir between 2007 and 2016 with available TE results were recruited. RESULTS: Of the total study population, 146 (43.7%) patients had HS (CAP > 238 dB/m). Three-hundred-three patients (90.7%) achieved complete virological response (CVR) (hepatitis B virus DNA<12 IU/L), and 25 patients (7.5%) developed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Among hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive patients (n=172, 51.5%), 37 (21.5%) experienced HBeAg loss. On univariate analysis, CAP value was not associated with the probability of HCC development (P=0.380). However, lower CAP value was independently associated with higher probability of HBeAg loss among HBeAg-positive patients (hazard ratio [HR]=0.991, P=0.026) and with CVR achievement in the entire study population (HR=0.996, P=0.004). The cumulative incidence of HBeAg loss among HBeAg-positive patients was significantly higher in patients without HS than in those with HS (log-rank, P=0.022). CONCLUSION: CAP values were not correlated with HCC development in patients initiated on entecavir and tenofovir. However, CAP values were negatively correlated with the probability of HBeAg loss among HBeAg-positive patients and with CVR achievement.ope

Predictors of Discordance in the Assessment of Skeletal Muscle Mass between Computed Tomography and Bioimpedance Analysis

Computed tomography (CT) and bioimpedance analysis (BIA) can assess skeletal muscle mass (SMM). Our objective was to identify the predictors of discordance between CT and BIA in assessing SMM. Participants who received a comprehensive medical health check-up between 2010 and 2018 were recruited. The CT and BIA-based diagnostic criteria for low SMM are as follows: Defined CT cutoff values (lumbar skeletal muscle index (LSMI) 65 years, female and BMI 65 years of age), female and BMI <25 kg/m².ope

Refractoriness to transarterial chemoembolization in patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection

BACKGROUND/AIMS: It is important to identify patients who are refractory to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), which is performed for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the predictors of poor treatment outcomes in patients with recurrent HCC treated who were treated with TACE after curative resection. METHODS: 428 patients with recurrent HCC after curative resection who were treated with TACE were enrolled. RESULTS: The median age of the study population was 59.2 years. On multivariate analysis, ≥2 TACE procedures within 6 months (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.898), and the des-gamma carboxyprothrombin level (HR = 1.000) independently predicted the progression to Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage C in patients with BCLC stage 0-B HCC (both P<0.05). In addition, ≥2 and ≥3 TACE procedures within 6 months independently predicted mortality in the entire study population (HR = 1.863 and 1.620, respectively). The probability of progression to BCLC stage C in patients with BCLC stage 0-B HCC and the mortality rate in the entire study population were significantly higher in patients treated with ≥2 TACE within 6 months than in those who underwent fewer procedures (P = 0.002 and P<0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: More than 2 TACE procedures within 6 months might be associated with the refractoriness to TACE in patients with recurrent HCC after curative resection.ope

Negligible risks of hepatocellular carcinoma during biomarker-defined immune-tolerant phase for patients with chronic hepatitis B

Background/aims: The immune-tolerant (IT) phase of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients is not generally indicative of antiviral therapy (AVT). We assessed and compared the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) during the IT-phase stringently defined by a low fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, compared to that in patients undergoing AVT. Methods: Among 125 untreated patients that were hepatitis B e-antigen positive, hepatitis B virus-DNA >20,000 IU/mL, with normal alanine aminotransferase level from 2012 to 2018, those with a FIB-4 index of <1.45 were classified into the IT-group. The cumulative probability of HCC was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. All patients were assessed until HCC development (intention-to-treat [ITT] analysis), whereas those suspected of experiencing CHB phase switch were assessed using the per-protocol (PP) and censored at the time of phase switch. Results: The cumulative probability of HCC at 1-, 3-, and 5-years among the IT-group was zero, compared to AVT-treated patients with FIB-4 indices <1.45 during the same period: 0.2%, 0.6%, and 1.4%, respectively (P=0.264 for ITT and P=0.533 for PP). Among the initially screened 125 untreated patients, those with a FIB-4 index of ≥1.45 had a higher risk of HCC compared to the IT-group (P=0.005). Furthermore, among AVT-treated patients, those with a FIB-4 index of ≥1.45 had a higher risk of HCC compared to their counterpart (P<0.001). Conclusion: The risk of HCC was negligible in the IT-group stringently defined by a low FIB-4 index. However, given that a higher HCC risk exists among untreated patients with higher FIB-4, appropriate criteria for AVT should be established.ope

Conditional Survival Estimates Improve Over Time for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: An Analysis for Nationwide Korea Cancer Registry Database

PURPOSE: Conditional survival estimates (CSE) can provide additional useful prognostic information on the period of survival after diagnosis, which helps in counseling patients with cancer on their individual prognoses. This study aimed to analyze conditional survival (CS) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using a Korean national registry. Materials and Methods: Patients with HCC, registered in the Korean cancer registry database, were retrospectively reviewed. Overall survival (OS) was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The 1-year CS at X year or month after diagnosis were calculated as CS1=OS(X+1)/OS(X). CS calculations were performed in each Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, after which patients at stage 0, A, and B underwent subgroup analysis using initial treatment methods. RESULTS: A total of 4,063 patients diagnosed with HCC from January 2008 to December 2010, and 2,721 who were diagnosed from January 2011 to December 2012, were separately reviewed. In 2008-2010, the 1-year CS of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-year survivors was 82.9%, 85.1%, 88.3%, 88.0%, and 88.6%, respectively. Patients demonstrated an increase in CSE over time in subgroup analysis, especially in the advanced stages. In 2011-2012, the 1-year CS of 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months was 81.5%, 83.8%, 85.3%, 85.5%, 86.5%, and 88.8%, respectively. The subgroup analysis showed the same tendency towards increased CSE in the advanced stages. CONCLUSION: Overall, the CS improved with each additional year after diagnosis in both groups. CSE may therefore provide a more accurate prognosis and hopeful message to patients who are surviving with or after treatment.ope

Sarcopenia Is Independently Associated with the Degree of Liver Fibrosis in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Background/aims: Sarcopenia is associated with liver fibrosis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and chronic hepatitis B. We investigated the association between sarcopenia and hepatic fibrotic burden in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods: Patients with T2DM who had received a comprehensive medical health checkup were recruited. Muscle mass was assessed using computed tomography. Fibrotic burden was assessed using the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4). The study population was divided by quartile stratification of the lumbar skeletal muscle index (LSMI). Results: Among 309 patients with T2DM, 75 (24.3%) had sarcopenia. These patients were significantly older and had higher FIB-4, whereas they had significantly lower body mass index (BMI) and LSMI than patients without sarcopenia (all p<0.05). The LSMI showed a significant negative correlation with the FIB-4 when analyzed in terms of quartile stratification (p=0.003). Multivariate analysis showed that female sex and higher BMI were independently associated with a reduced risk of sarcopenia (odds ratio [OR], 0.388; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.199 to 0.755 and OR, 0.704; 95% CI, 0.618 to 0.801; all p<0.05), whereas a higher FIB- 4 was independently associated with an increased risk of sarcopenia (OR, 1.817; 95% CI, 1.180 to 2.797; p=0.007). Among patients with a BMI <25 kg/m2 (n=165), those with sarcopenia (n=54, 32.7%) had a significantly higher FIB-4 than those without (n=111, 67.3%; 1.66 vs 1.38, p=0.004). Conclusions: Sarcopenia is independently associated with fibrotic burden in patients with T2DM. Further studies should investigate whether the improvement of sarcopenia can ameliorate liver fibrosis in patients with T2DM.ope