Development and Application of Chronic Disease Risk Prediction Models

Currently, non-communicable chronic diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and a large proportion of chronic diseases are preventable through risk factor management. However, the prevention efficacy at the individual level is not yet satisfactory. Chronic disease prediction models have been developed to assist physicians and individuals in clinical decision-making. A chronic disease prediction model assesses multiple risk factors together and estimates an absolute disease risk for the individual. Accurate prediction of an individual's future risk for a certain disease enables the comparison of benefits and risks of treatment, the costs of alternative prevention strategies, and selection of the most efficient strategy for the individual. A large number of chronic disease prediction models, especially targeting cardiovascular diseases and cancers, have been suggested, and some of them have been adopted in the clinical practice guidelines and recommendations of many countries. Although few chronic disease prediction tools have been suggested in the Korean population, their clinical utility is not as high as expected. This article reviews methodologies that are commonly used for developing and evaluating a chronic disease prediction model and discusses the current status of chronic disease prediction in Korea.ope

Association between meat consumption and carotid intima-media thickness in Korean adults with metabolic syndrome

OBJECTIVES: The effect of meat consumption on cardiometabolic risk has been continuously studied, but their associations are not conclusive. The aim of this study is to examine the association between the consumption of meat or red meat and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) in healthy Korean adults. METHODS: This study evaluated 2374 community-dwelling adults (933 men and 1441 women) who were free of cardiovascular disease or cancer, living in a rural area in Korea. Total meat and red meat intakes were assessed with a validated 103 item-food frequency questionnaire. Carotid IMT was evaluated ultrasonographically, IMTmax was defined as the highest value among IMT of bilateral common carotid arteries. RESULTS: After adjustment for potential confounding factors, the mean IMTmax tended to increase in higher meat consumption groups in both men and women with metabolic syndrome (p for trend= 0.027 and 0.049, respectively), but not in participants without metabolic syndrome. Frequent meat consumption (≥5 servings/week) was significantly associated with higher IMTmax in men with metabolic syndrome (by 0.08 mm, p=0.015). Whereas, the association was not significant in women (by 0.05 mm, p=0.115). Similar but attenuated findings were shown with red meat intake. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that a higher meat consumption may be associated with a higher carotid IMT in Korean adults with metabolic syndrome. The frequent meat consumption (≥5 servings/week), compared with the others, was associated with a higher carotid IMTmax only in men with metabolic syndrome. Further research is required to explore optimal meat consumption in people with specific medical conditionsope

Association between Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Level and Insulin Resistance in a Rural Population

PURPOSE: A low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] level in the blood has been correlated with an increased risk of diabetes mellitus; however, the association between serum 25(OH)D level and insulin resistance has not been established in a Korean rural population. The aim of this study was to investigate the independent association between serum 25(OH)D level and insulin resistance in rural Korean adults. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study used data from the Korean Genome Epidemiology Study-Kangwha Study. In the 2011 study, 1200 adults completed health examinations. In an ancillary study, serum 25(OH)D level was measured in a subsample (n=813). After excluding those taking vitamin D supplements, a cross-sectional analysis was carried out on 807 participants (324 men and 483 women) aged 40 to 89 years old. Measured from overnight fasting blood samples, glucose and insulin levels were used to calculate the homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). Measures of glucose, insulin, and HOMA-IR were log-transformed for parametric tests. RESULTS: Serum 25(OH)D level was inversely associated with HOMA-IR (β=-0.003, p=0.039) in a univariate analysis. However, the association was not significant after adjustment for sex and age (β=-0.002, p=0.123) or after adjustment for sex, age, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol intake, and regular exercise (β=-0.003, p=0.247). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that vitamin D is not independently associated with insulin resistance in Korean men and women.ope

Noncommunicable Diseases: Current Status of Major Modifiable Risk Factors in Korea

A noncommunicable disease (NCD) is a medical condition or disease that is by definition non-infectious and non-transmissible among people. Currently, NCDs are the leading causes of death and disease burden worldwide. The four main types of NCDs, including cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic lung disease, and diabetes, result in more than 30 million deaths annually. To reduce the burden of NCDs on global health, current public health actions stress the importance of preventing, detecting, and correcting modifiable risk factors; controlling major modifiable risk factors has been shown to effectively reduce NCD mortality. The World Health Organization's World Health Report 2002 identified tobacco use, alcohol consumption, overweight, physical inactivity, high blood pressure, and high cholesterol as the most important risk factors for NCDs. Accordingly, the present report set out to review the prevalence and trends of these modifiable risk factors in the Korean population. Over the past few decades, we observed significant risk factor modifications of improved blood pressure control and decreased smoking rate. However, hypertension and cigarette smoking remained the most contributable factors of NCDs in the Korean population. Moreover, other major modifiable risk factors show no improvement or even worsened. The current status and trends in major modifiable risk factors reinforce the importance of prevention, detection, and treatment of risk factors in reducing the burden of NCDs on individuals and society.ope

The association between serum albumin levels and metabolic syndrome in a rural population of Korea

OBJECTIVES: A positive association between serum albumin levels and metabolic syndrome has been reported in observation studies, but it has not been established in the Korean population. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between serum albumin levels and the presence of metabolic syndrome among a sample of apparently healthy Korean adults. METHODS: This cross-sectional study analyzed data of 3189 community-dwelling people (1189 men and 2000 women) who were aged 40 to 87 years and were living in a rural area in Korea. Serum albumin levels were classified into quartile groups for each sex. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines with an adjusted waist circumference cut-off value (≥90 cm for men and ≥85 cm for women). An independent association between serum albumin levels and metabolic syndrome was assessed by multiple logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Higher serum albumin levels were associated with increased prevalence of metabolic syndrome. The odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of the prevalence of metabolic syndrome for the highest versus the lowest serum albumin quartiles was 2.81 (1.91 to 4.14) in men and 1.96 (1.52 to 2.52) in women, after adjusting for age, smoking status, alcohol consumption, and physical activity. When each metabolic abnormality was analyzed separately, higher serum albumin levels were significantly associated with hypertriglyceridemia and hyperglycemia in both sexes, and with abdominal obesity in men. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that higher serum albumin levels are positively associated with an increased risk of metabolic syndrome in Korean adults.ope

Factors Associated with a Low-sodium Diet: The Fourth Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

OBJECTIVES: The low-sodium diet is a known preventive factor for hypertension and cardiovascular disease. Factors associated with low-sodium diets should be identified to reduce sodium intake effectively. This study was conducted to identify factors correlated with a low-sodium diet. METHODS: This cross-sectional study analyzed data from a total of 14,539 Koreans aged 20 years or older, who participated in the Fourth (2007-2009) Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. A low-sodium diet was defined as having ≤2,000 mg/day based on 24-hour recalls. Multiple logistic regression models were used to assess sex, age, education, number of family members, household income, occupation, alcohol drinking, total energy intake, frequency of eating out, and hypertension management status for their associations with low-sodium diets. RESULTS: Among all participants, only 13.9% (n=2,016) had low-sodium diets. In the multivariate analysis, 40-49 years of age, clerical work jobs, higher total energy intake, and frequent eating out were inversely associated with low-sodium diets. And female sex and living-alone were associated with low-sodium diets. Lower frequency of eating out was significantly associated with low-sodium diets, even after adjusting for total energy intake and other potential confounders. Adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for a low-sodium diet were 1.97 (1.49-2.61), 1.47 (1.13-1.91), 1.24 (0.96-1.61), and 1.00 (reference) in people who eat out <1 time/month, 1-3 times/month, 1-6 times/week, and ≥1 time/day, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that sex, age, number of family members, occupation, total energy intake, and lower frequency of eating out were associated with a low-sodium diet in Korean adults.ope

Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D and Insulin Resistance in Apparently Healthy Adolescents

PURPOSE: Vitamin D deficiency is a common condition that is associated with diabetes and insulin resistance. However, the association between vitamin D and insulin resistance has not been fully studied, especially in the general adolescent population. Therefore, we assessed the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] level and insulin resistance among apparently healthy Korean adolescents. METHODS: A total of 260 (135 male and 125 female) adolescents in a rural high school were assessed for serum 25(OH)D, fasting plasma glucose, and insulin. All of the participants were aged 15 to 16 years old, and without known hypertension or diabetes. Serum 25(OH)D was analyzed both as a continuous and categorical variable in association with insulin resistance. Insulin resistance was estimated by homeostasis model assessment (HOMA-IR). Increased insulin resistance was operationally defined as a HOMA-IR value higher than the sex-specific 75th percentile. RESULTS: In male adolescents, every 10 ng/ml decrease in 25(OH)D level was associated with a 0.25 unit increase in HOMA-IR (p = 0.003) after adjusting for age and BMI. Compared to those in the highest quartile, male adolescents in the lowest 25(OH)D quartile were at significantly higher risk for insulin resistance: unadjusted odds ratio 4.06 (95% CI, 1.26 to 13.07); age and BMI adjusted odds ratio 3.59 (95% CI, 1.03 to 12.57). However, 25(OH)D level, either in continuous or categorical measure, was not significantly associated with insulin resistance among female adolescents. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that serum 25(OH)D level may be inversely associated with insulin resistance in healthy male adolescents.ope

Development and validation of osteoporosis risk-assessment model for Korean men

PURPOSE: The aim of the present study was to develop an osteoporosis risk-assessment model to identify high-risk individuals among Korean men. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study used data from 1340 and 1110 men ≥50 years who participated in the 2009 and 2010 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, respectively, for development and validation of an osteoporosis risk-assessment model. Osteoporosis was defined as T score ≤-2.5 at either the femoral neck or lumbar spine. Performance of the candidate models and the Osteoporosis Self-assessment Tool for Asian (OSTA) was compared with sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). A net reclassification improvement was further calculated to compare the developed Korean Osteoporosis Risk-Assessment Model for Men (KORAM-M) with OSTA. RESULTS: In the development dataset, the prevalence of osteoporosis was 8.1%. KORAM-M, consisting of age and body weight, had a sensitivity of 90.8%, a specificity of 42.4%, and an AUC of 0.666 with a cut-off score of -9. In the validation dataset, similar results were shown: sensitivity 87.9%, specificity 39.7%, and AUC 0.638. Additionally, risk categorization with KORAM-M showed improved reclassification over that of OSTA up to 22.8%. CONCLUSION: KORAM-M can be simply used as a pre-screening tool to identify candidates for dual energy X-ray absorptiometry tests.ope

Longitudinal Standards for Height and Height Velocity in Korean Children and Adolescents: the Kangwha Cohort Study

Longitudinal standards for height and height velocity are essential to monitor for appropriate linear growth. We aimed to construct standards in Korean children and adolescents through the population-based longitudinal Kangwha study. Our study was a part of a community-based prospective cohort study from 1986 to 1999 with 800 school children. Height and height velocity were recorded annually from age 6 until final height. Results were compared with cross-sectional data from the 2007 Korean National Growth Charts. Final height was 173.5 cm in boys and 160.5 cm in girls. Although final height was similar between longitudinal and cross-sectional standards, the mean height for age was higher in the longitudinal standard by 1-4 cm from age 6 until the completion of puberty. Using the longitudinal standard, age at peak height velocity (PHV) was 12 in boys and 10 in girls; height velocity at PHV was 8.62 cm/yr in boys and 7.07 cm/yr in girls. The mean height velocity was less than 1 cm/yr at age 17 in boys and 15 in girls. Thus, we have presented the first report of longitudinal standards for height and height velocity in Korean children and adolescents by analyzing longitudinal data from the Kangwha cohort.ope

Comparison of CDS pricing methods

학위논문(석사) --서울대학교 대학원 :협동과정 계산과학전공,2007.Maste