3 research outputs found
(A)Study on real-time risk measurement of process instance using decision tree
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Business Process Management System (BPMS) has been recognized as a systemized business information system providing a well organized business environment, which has been changing continuously with evolution of information technology. Recently, it is being applied in various business aspects such as Business Intelligence for solutions to business decision-makings of industrial managers, and Real-Time Enterprise for enabling real-time monitoring and control of business processes. BPMS has emerged as a critical discipline to make possible the integrated enterprise management so as to enhance the competitiveness with the rapidly changing business environments. In particular, among various functionalities comprising BPMS suite, industrial managers get focused on the monitoring system to get visibility and accessibility into the business process in real-time.
One of the most widely used approaches to knowledge-based process monitoring is a rule-based approach using knowledge extraction by inductive algorithms. It aims at investigating historical data in order to define rules composed of the condition about process attributes and the corresponding business performances. Utilizing these rules, the approach evaluates the process result by detecting the rule condition. Although it has been applied successfully as a reactive application to completed processes, it still has limitations with respect to real-time monitoring applications, especially sequential process execution monitoring. Because of unobserved process attributes in midcourse, the ongoing status cannot easily be evaluated at a specific monitoring period, which necessitates that the rule detecting be delayed until completion. Therefore, it is hard to provide a comprehensive indicator representing the ongoing status. Consequently, the feed-forward control cannot easily be provided along with the real-time progress.
To alleviate these limitations, this thesis focuses on the development of a novel approach to real-time business process monitoring. To realize it, this research formulates three kinds of monitoring methods for phased prediction of prospective results along with the real-time progress of ongoing process, as well as its real-time application, the proactive warning strategy, by extending existing rule-based approaches based on inductive algorithms including Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, and Local Outlier Factor.
Each method is derived by integrating the typical use of inductive algorithm to evaluate the occurred result of completed process, and the proposed methodologies to predict possible progresses of ongoing process and to estimate the prospective results of them. The inductive algorithm investigates historical cases to construct a predictive model composed of rules about process attributes and the following result. At each monitoring time during real-time monitoring, based on the partial information from ongoing process, the proposed method generates its possible progresses by substituting similar historical cases and thereby probabilistically predicts the probable outcomes. Then, the ongoing status is represented with respect to the probability of each respective result type upon completion. Thus, the proactive warning is generated if the probability of the targeted type exceeds the threshold. This procedure is conducted by planned phases based on the observed run-time data during the real-time progress of ongoing process so that the extended method can proactively predict the final result before its actual occurrence upon completion.
Whereas the conventional monitoring approaches only deterministically evaluate the already occurred outcome of process execution, the proposed approach probabilistically predicts the possible results of an ongoing process over entire monitoring periods. As such, the proposed approach can estimate the real-time indicator describing the current capability of ongoing process. Specifically, the proposed approach conducts the phased prediction about what kind of results can occur, before the actual occurrence. Therefore, it can provide industrial managers with insight into the ongoing status of running processes, which makes possible the real-time support of industrial managers decision-making. Such the prediction of capabilities of ongoing process to achieve given business performances can provide opportunities for proactive preparation to eventualities of expected outcomes, as opposed to reactive correction after their actual occurrence by the existing monitoring approach.μ‘°μ§νλ μ
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Real-time Risk Measurement of Business Process Using Decision Tree
This paper proposes a methodology to measure the risk level in real-time for Business Activity Monitoring (BAM). A
decision-tree methodology was employed to analyze the effect of process attributes on the result of the process execution.
In the course of process execution, the level of risk is monitored in real-time, and an early warning can be issued depending
on the change of the risk level. An algorithm for estimating the risk of ongoing processes in real-time was
formulated. Comparison experiments were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. The proposed method
detects the risks of business processes more precisely and even earlier than existing approaches.λ³Έ μ°κ΅¬λ μ§μκ²½μ λΆ λ° μ 보ν΅μ μ°κ΅¬μ§ν₯μμ IT ν΅μ¬κΈ°μ κ°λ°μ¬μ
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