The Non-linear Relationship among Capital Account Liberalization,Financial Risks and Foreign Exchange Reserves

近年来,我国稳步推进资本账户开放,同时美元利率、汇率持续走强可能引发国际资本外流。那么,在我国外汇储备规模增速放缓且总量存在下滑风险的背景下,能否应对由此引发的金融动荡是一个十分值得研究的重要问题。鉴于此,文章构建了包括重商主义动机和预防性动机的非线性模型,采用面板平滑转换回归(PSTr)模型和全球36个国家(地区)的数据,考察了资本账户开放情况下,外债风险和流动性风险等金融风险对上述两类外汇储备动机的影响效应,并结合金融风险门槛变量分析了两类动机估计系数的演变过程。研究发现,由于金融风险增大使出口增长放缓、贸易条件恶化,重商主义动机中出口增长率和贸易条件对外汇储备的贡献逐渐减弱;而预防性动机中资本账户开放指数和外商直接投资净流入波动对外汇储备的正向效应则逐渐增强。其原因主要在于,国内风险陡增将导致投资于本国的资本面临损失和贬值风险,而此时如果开放资本账户,则将加剧资本外逃和资本波动对经济增长的负面冲击,出于预防性动机需求,央行会主动增加外汇储备进行应对。此外,文章还发现大部分国家增加外汇储备更多的是出于预防性动机,只有少数国家兼顾重商主义动机和预防性动机。最后,文章就现阶段我国开放资本账户与管控金融风险提出了若干建议。Recently,China opens its capital account steadily,and meanwhile constant appreciation expectation of USD exchange rate and interest rates may lead to international capital outflows.Whereas,in the background of slow expansion of China's foreign exchange reserves scale and declining risk of amount aggregate,how to deal with resulting financial turmoil is an impotant issue worthy of being studied.This paper constructs a nonlinear model including mercantilist and precautionary motives,and uses panel smooth transition regression model and the data of 36 countries or areas to investigate the effects of financial risks like external debt and liquidity risks on these two motives above-mentioned under capital account liberalization and analyze the evolution of estimation coefficients of these two motives by combining threshold variables of financial risks.It comes to the conclusions as follows:the increase in financial risks leads to slow export growth and deteriorating terms of trade,and then the contribution of export growth and terms of trade in mercantilist motivation to foreign exchange reserves gradually weakens,while the positive effect of capital account liberalization and fluctuations in net FDI inflow in the precautionary motivation increases gradually.The main reason is that the sharp increase in domestic risks leads to depreciation risks and losses of capital return investing in domestic market;and if capital account is opened up at the same time,the adverse impacts of capital flight and capital fluctuations on economic growth would arise,so the central bank would increase foreign exchange reserves to deal with the expanding financial risk owing to the need of precautionary motive.In addition,it also indicates that the reason for the increase in foreign exchange reserves in most countries mainly lies in precautionary motive and only a few countries consider the mercantilist and precautionary motives at the same time.At last,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions about capital account liberalization and financial risk control in current China.国家自然科学基金项目(71303081); 全国统计科研计划项目(2013LY084); 国家社会科学基金项目(12BJL057); 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(12YJC790006); 中国博士后基金面上项目(2013M540669); 广东省哲学社会科学“十二五”规划青年项目(GD11YYJ01); 广东省软科学研究计划项目(2014A070704011;2013B070206051

小城镇产业布局决策支持系统设计与实现

产业布局对小城镇的经济社会发展具有决定性意义。鉴于目前小城镇产业布局辅助决策系统的局限性,设计一种通用、高效的小城镇产业布局辅助决策系统,对包括模型的选择和实现、数据可视化、知识库与知识推理等的系统实现中的关键技术进行论述。系统实现验证了设计思路的正确性和合理性