Robustification at Outstanding Claims Reserves Predictive Models in Non-life Insurance

本篇论文首先建立未决赔款准备金评估模型来预测准备金，分别介绍了链梯法、Additive方法、LDF方法、Cope-Cod方法、广义线性模型、贝叶斯链梯法和贝叶斯BF方法这些评估模型的模型假设、预测公式、预测误差并对模型优点与不足进行评析。未决赔款准备金评估中，还需要知道预测的准确度，即预测误差。求出的预测误差的大小可作为比较不同预测模型好坏的重要指标。一般应用均方预测误差和自助法。 在未决赔款准备金评估过程中，保险公司极大依赖于评估所需的大量的数据。如果数据不可靠，比如受到异常值的影响，未决赔款准备金评估结果的精确度就不高。通常异常值会导致未决赔款准备金预测的过高或过低。在选择未决赔款准备金...In the present paper, in order to predict the claims reserves at first we propose several reserving models, including Chain–Ladder method , Additive method , LDF model, Cope -Cod method, GLM, Bayesian chain-ladder method and Bayesian BF method. And this paper gives assumptions of models , prediction formulas and prediction errors separately. It is clear that besides the estimate of the reserves , ...学位：理学硕士院系专业：数学科学学院_概率论与数理统计学号：1902011115253

戊型肝炎病毒衣壳蛋白结合CYP 2A6并降低其底物催化能力

肝炎病毒的感染常常导致人体肝脏代谢能力变化,研究表明甲型肝炎病毒(Hepatitis A Virus,HAV)、乙型肝炎病毒(Hepatitis B Virus,HBV)和丙型肝炎病毒(Hepatitis C Virus,HCV)的感染都会影响肝细胞对药物的代谢能力。在本研究中,通过酵母双杂交系统在人肝cDNA文库中筛选与戊型肝炎病毒重组衣壳蛋白E2结合的蛋白,发现了与细胞色素P450 2A6(CYP2A6)部分片段高度同源的蛋白序列。通过pull-down、免疫共沉淀以及特异性底物催化反应评价等方法进一步证实了CYP2A6与重组衣壳蛋白E2、p239间的相互作用,并发现与p239结合可以降低CYP2A6对其特异性底物香豆素的催化能力。上述结果提示CYP2A6可能在戊肝病毒入侵细胞后的细胞病变过程中起作用

Electric-field-induced selective catalysis of single-molecule reaction

随着单分子电学检测技术的迅速发展，分子电子学的研究不再局限于分子电子学器件的构筑及其电学性质的测量，而且扩展到单分子尺度化学反应过程的探索。然而目前相关的研究仍然局限于理论计算方面，在单分子尺度上实时监测和调控化学反应的活性和选择性是化学领域的长期目标和挑战。针对这一挑战，洪文晶教授课题组与程俊教授课题组合作，自主研发了精密科学仪器，将单个有机分子定向连接在两个末端尺寸为原子级的电极之间，解决了化学反应中分子取向控制的问题.理论计算结果证实了定向电场可以有效地稳定化学反应的过渡态，从而降低反应能垒。该研究工作在化学化工学院洪文晶教授、程俊教授、能源材料化学协同创新中心（iChEM）刘俊扬副研究员的共同指导下完成，由硕士研究生黄晓艳、iChEM博士研究生唐淳、博士研究生李洁琼以及兰州大学的陈力川博士作为共同第一作者，化学化工学院师佳副教授、陈招斌高级工程师、夏海平教授和田中群教授，萨本栋微纳研究院杨扬副教授、环境与生态学院白敏冬教授以及兰州大学张浩力教授参与了研究工作的讨论并给予指导，博士后乐家波、博士研究生郑珏婷、张佩（已毕业）、李瑞豪、李晓慧也参与了研究工作。Oriented external electric fields (OEEFs) offer a unique chance to tune catalytic selectivity by orienting the alignment of the electric field along the axis of the activated bond for a specific chemical reaction; however, they remain a key experimental challenge. Here, we experimentally and theoretically investigated the OEEF-induced selective catalysis in a two-step cascade reaction of the Diels-Alder addition followed by an aromatization process. Characterized by the mechanically controllable break junction (MCBJ) technique in the nanogap and confirmed by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) in bottles, OEEFs are found to selectively catalyze the aromatization reaction by one order of magnitude owing to the alignment of the electric field on the reaction axis. Meanwhile, the Diels-Alder reaction remained unchanged since its reaction axis is orthogonal to the electric fields. This orientation-selective catalytic effect of OEEFs reveals that chemical reactions can be selectively manipulated through the elegant alignment between the electric fields and the reaction axis.This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFA0204902), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (21722305, 21703188, 21673195, 21621091, 51733004, 51525303, and 91745103), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2017M622060), and the Young Thousand Talents Project of China. 该工作得到国家自然科学基金委（21722305、21703188、21673195、51733004、51525303、91745103），国家重点研发计划课题（2017YFA0204902），中国博士后面上基金（2017M622060）的资助，以及固体表面物理化学国家重点实验室、醇醚酯化工清洁生产国家工程实验室、能源材料化学协同创新中心的支持

國民中學特教組長領導特質與領導效能關係之研究

[[abstract]]The purpose of this study was to examine the relationships among leadership traits and leadership effectiveness of the special education section leader in junior high schools. The study attempted to explore the following five research concerns：(1) to understand how the special education administrative headmasters and the special education instructors perceive the leadership traits of the special education section leaders in junior high schools in current situation. (2) to survey how the special education administrative headmasters and the special education instructors sense the leadership effectiveness of the special education section leaders in junior high schools in current situation. (3) to examine the differences of leadership traits and leadership effectiveness perceived by between the special education administrative headmasters and the special education instructors. (4) to analyze and induce the major background that affects the special education section leaders in junior high schools. (5) to explore the relationships between leadership traits and leadership effectiveness. The repliers of the study included the special education administrative headmasters and the special education instructors of six counties and cities in northern Taiwan in 2002. In order to make the samples more representative, this sampling survey, which was based on proportionately stratified at random, consisted of 700 subjects who were chosen from 100 junior high schools with the organization of special education section leader. There were 324 valid return questionnaires in total, with the valid return rate at 46%. The research instrument was composed of three questionnaires： (1) the profile of the junior high school. (2) the leadership traits questionnaire of SES’ leaders. (3) the leadership effectiveness questionnaire of SES’ leaders. All of them were revised by scholars and tested by factor analysis. The data was analyzed by a number of statistical techniques such as descriptive statistics, t-test, F-test, one way ANOVA, and Pearson’s Product-moment Correlation. The results were as following： (1) The leadership traits performed by the special education section leaders in junior high school at personality and moral qualities was highly identified, interpersonal relationship traits the second, and organization management traits the lowest. (2) The leadership effectiveness performed by the special education section leaders in junior high school was higher than average, especially good at organization goal achievement. (3) There was no significant difference of leadership traits perceived by between the special education administrative headmasters and the special education instructors. (4) There were striking differences in leadership effectiveness of between the special education administrative headmasters and the special education instructors at organization goal achievement, but no difference at leadership satisfaction. (5) The leadership effectiveness performed by the special education section leaders in junior high school differs at some background variables. (6) Total leadership traits and total leadership effectiveness are highly correlated. (7) The leadership traits and total leadership effectiveness are strongly correlated. The organization management traits and leadership effectiveness have the highest correlation, interpersonal relation traits the second, personality and moral qualities the lowest. Based on the above findings, the researcher has made suggestions regarding effective inclusion and future studies.

An analysis to 1997's Taiwan economy and the prospects of 1998

This article has analyzed the marks and problems on economy that Talwan has got in 1997and concluded that it's economy should have a good perFormance in the mew year.Also the author noticed that to achieve this there are still many hinderanecs and variables to be overcome, in which the rest inFluence of the Financial storm in southeast Asia may be a greatest one and very possibly shadow the 1998's Taiwan economy

Action recognition method of spatio-temporal feature fusion deep learning network

基于自然场景图像的人体行为识别方法中遮挡、背景干扰、光照不均匀等因素影响识别结果,利用人体三维骨架序列的行为识别方法可以克服上述缺点。首先,考虑人体行为的时空特性,提出一种时空特征融合深度学习网络人体骨架行为识别方法;其次,根据骨架几何特征建立视角不变性特征表示,CNN(Convolutional Neural Network)网络学习骨架的局部空域特征,作用于空域的LSTM(Long Short Term Memory)网络学习骨架空域节点之间的相关性特征,作用于时域的LSTM网络学习骨架序列时空关联性特征;最后,利用NTU RGB+D数据库验证文中算法。实验结果表明:算法识别精度有所提高,对于多视角骨架具有较强的鲁棒性。</p

Two-person interaction recognition based on multi-stream spatio-temporal fusion network

提出一种基于多通道时空融合网络的双人交互行为识别方法,对双人骨架序列行为进行识别。首先,采用视角不变性特征提取方法提取双人骨架特征,然后,设计两层级联的时空融合网络模型,第一层基于一维卷积神经网络(1DCNN)和双向长短时记忆网络(BiLSTM)学习空间特征,第二层基于长短时记忆网络(LSTM)学习时间特征,得到双人骨架的时空融合特征。最后,采用多通道时空融合网络分别学习多组双人骨架特征得到多通道融合特征,利用融合特征识别交互行为,各通道之间权值共享。将文中算法应用于NTU-RGBD人体交互行为骨架库,双人交叉对象实验准确率可达96.42%,交叉视角实验准确率可达97.46%。文中方法与该领域的典型方法相比,在双人交互行为识别中表现出更好的性能。</p

The status and influencing factors of stigma in women of childbearing age with chronic kidney disease (慢性肾脏病育龄期女性患者病耻感现状及影响因素分析)

Objective To investigate the current status and influencing factors of stigma in women of childbearing age with chronic kidney disease. Methods Totally 238 women of childbearing age with chronic kidney disease were investigated using general data questionnaire, The stigma scale for chronic illnesses 8- item version (SSCI-8), and influencing factors of stigma were analyzed. Results The incidence of stigma was 66. 39%, and averaged score of SSCI-8 was 13. 0(10. 0, 16. 0). Binary Logistic regression analysis showed that education level, family monthly income were independent influencing factors of occurrence of stigma(P＜0. 05). The multivariate ordered logistic regression showed that the number of children, positive outcomes of urine protein test and medical insurance were associated with degree of stigma(P＜0. 05). Conclusion Findings of investigation showed a high incidence of stigma and moderate level of stigma among women of childbearing age with chronic kidney disease. Women with low family monthly income, low education level, childless women or with two or more children, positive outcomes of urine protein test and without medical insurance may experience a greater degree of stigma. Targeted treatment and interventions should be carried out timely to reduce the stigma in women of childbearing age with chronic kidney disease. (目的 探讨慢性肾脏病(CKD)育龄期女性患者病耻感现状并分析其影响因素。方法 选取2021年11月—2022年11月医院肾脏病科门诊就诊的238例CKD育龄期女性患者为研究对象, 采用一般资料调查、慢性病病耻感量表(SSCI-8)对患者进行调查, 分析CKD育龄期女性患者病耻感的影响因素。结果 病耻感发生率66. 39%(158/235), 病耻感分数为13. 0(10. 0, 16. 0)。二元Logistic回归分析结果显示: 文化程度、家庭人均月收入对CKD育龄期女性患者病耻感发生影响有统计学意义(P＜0. 05); 多元有序Logistic回归分析结果显示: 子女数量、尿蛋白阳性(+)、医保情况对CKD育龄期女性患者病耻感轻重程度影响有统计学意义(P＜0. 05)。结论 调查显示CKD育龄期女性患者病耻感发生率高, 病耻感程度处于中低水平; 家庭人均月收入低、文化程度偏低、无子女/2个以上子女、尿蛋白阳性(+)及无医保的患者病耻感更明显。医护人员应更加重视并给予及时的治疗干预, 减轻患者的病耻感。

基于CDEM的岩石基坑爆破效果的数值模拟

为探讨延时时间及炮孔间距对岩石基坑爆破破碎效果的影响规律，依托大连地铁五号线虎滩公园站，建立岩体二维数值计算模型，通过连续-非连续数值模拟方法(CDEM)中的JWL爆炸模型及断裂能模型，对岩石基坑开展了爆破过程的数值模拟，并通过应力、振动速度、平均破碎尺寸、极限破碎尺寸、大块率及系统破裂度等指标进行综合分析。结果显示：模型监测点处以拉应力破坏为主导，延时35 ms时应力波叠加效果较好，引起的模型监测点峰值振速较小；随着延时的增大，岩石爆破效果逐渐变差，而当延时为25 ms时，较短的延时不利于应力波的传播和衰减导致爆破效果不佳。监测点处y方向峰值振动速度随着炮孔间距L的增大逐渐减小，岩石爆破效果逐渐改善，而过大的炮孔间距会阻碍应力叠加。炮孔间距6 m时能够有效减少大块率，爆破破碎效果最佳。改变炮孔间距相对于改变延时时间大块率降低了3.2%,系统破裂度提高了3.8%,因此，改变炮孔间距优于改变延时时间的爆破效果