Federal Policy Responses to the 2007–2009 US Credit Crunch

This paper discusses the key characteristics of the U.S. financial crisis 2007-2009 and focuses on the Federal Policy Response to the lack of liquidity in the financial sector known as the “Credit Crunch”. The surprising depth of the crisis required unprecedented policy measures to be used in order to tackle the mounting liquidity problems in banks and prevent the subsequent credit crunch from taking its toll in the real economy. This required extension of monetary powers of the Federal Reserve and Treasury, which was unmatched in history. The policy response to credit crunch and house price bust was especially important given the fact that recessions following such events tend to be much deeper and longer than any other types of recessions. More importantly, however, the analyses of the current policy responses will determine which form financial markets will take in the next few decades, thus how vulnerable the world economy will be to next disruptions and liquidity problems

Econometric Methods in Economic Growth Models

The article aims to review and assess different econometric methods used in the estimation of empirical models of economic growth. Such models play an important role in the economy because they yield conclusions for policymakers, the author says. His research showed that the preferred method for the estimation of dynamic models of growth based on cross-temporal data is the Generalized Method of Moments applied simultaneously on the levels and first differences with error correction used in small samples. However, in some cases, more accurate estimates could be obtained by using either the Kiviet or Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator instead of the Generalized Method of Moments, the author concludes.Celem artykułu jest przegląd i ocena poszczególnych metod ekonometrycznych używanych w modelach empirycznych wzrostu gospodarczego, co ma zasadnicze znaczenie dla ekonomicznego znaczenia tych badań i siły wniosków z nich płynących dla polityki gospodarczej. Przyjętą metodą jest dyskusja teoretyczna poświęcona poszczególnym modelom empirycznym zilustrowana własnymi oszacowaniami omawianych modeli. W badaniu ekonometrycznym wykazano, że preferowaną metodą szacowania dynamicznych modeli wzrostu na danych przekrojowo-czasowych jest Uogólniona Metoda Momentów zastosowana jednocześnie na poziomach i na pierwszych różnicach z korektą błędu w małych próbach. W artykule również wskazano, że w innych zastosowaniach, właściwsze mogą być estymacje prowadzone przy pomocy estymatora Kivieta bądź estymatora PMG

The Causes of Corruption in Postcommunist Countries

The paper provides an empirical analysis of the causes of corruption in postcommunist countries. Researchers vary in their evaluation of how economic policy instruments and structural factors influence the level of corruption in these countries, Goczek says. He looks at the two main hypotheses about the sources of corruption in the region. The first hypothesis holds that the current level of corruption in postcommunist countries is largely due to what happened under communism, including the institutional standards of the time. The other hypothesis is that these countries’ transition from central planning to a market economy is largely responsible for the current level of corruption in the region. Both models discussed in the article proved to be useful in explaining the level of perceived corruption in postcommunist countries, the author says. In the first model, Goczek checked if the current scope of corruption has its roots in these countries’ communist past. The empirical study showed that the more economically developed a particular country was in 1989, the more successful it was in dealing with the problem of corruption. Generally, the extent of central planning in the economy proved to be the most significant factor, Goczek says. He argues that the level of perceived corruption in a given country depended on the scope of central planning and the resulting market disturbance. In the second model discussed in the paper, the author tries to check if market reforms contributed to an increase in corruption in Central and Eastern Europe. According to some researchers, wide-ranging redistribution processes linked with privatization and liberalization in the economy frequently encouraged corruption after the fall of communism. Goczek’s analysis of economic policy choices reveals that the level of corruption in Central and Eastern Europe is lower than in the former Soviet Union. While most Central and Eastern European countries as well as the Baltic states introduced far-reaching economic reforms at the start of transition, Goczek says, former Soviet republics dragged their feet on such reforms. As a result, the levels of corruption in these two regions differ considerably. Generally, those countries that quickly carried out economic reforms managed to arrest and even reverse the progress of corruption after the fall of communism, Goczek concludes

The Causes for Corruption and the Effectiveness of Anti-Corruption Strategies

The author examines the causes behind corruption and checks why strategies designed to combat corruption fail to produce the expected results. The analysis is based on a review of the extensive body of empirical research into the sources of corruption and a descriptive analysis of the effectiveness of anti-corruption measures. The author offers a definition of corruption and presents the most common anti-corruption programs. He also describes problems widely associated with empirical studies involving corruption. The analysis addresses four issues: the overall level of development; the public sector; political institutions; and limitations to a free market and competition. Contrary to popular belief, not all the measures commonly proposed in the ongoing public debate on corruption will work in practice, Goczek says. For example, political reforms are unlikely to produce the desired results. Anti-corruption reforms should be geared toward limiting the room for corruption by reducing the number of transactions subject to arbitrary decision-making and by delegating authority to the market instead of the government. It is necessary to limit the powers of politicians and officials in areas such as the issuance of business permits and licenses, the author says. This should be accompanied by measures designed to limit the government’s monopoly in areas such as barriers to market entry, interventionism, economic freedom and competition. One possible reason why anti-corruption measures fail to deal with the real causes behind the problem is that far-reaching economic reforms are unpopular in Poland, the author says. Many anti-corruption programs are ineffective because they are often only a “smoke screen” designed to hide inaction, Goczek concludes

FDI and Inadequetly Educated Workforce - a Firm Level Empirical Analysis

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the use of quantitative methods, issues inadequately educated workforce in the context of foreign direct investment in Central and Eastern Europe. This issue is examined as an obstacle to doing business. The first part describes the development of the data, the second part a description of the methodology for estimating the third part the results obtained from the estimated model. The last part presents conclusions

Monetary Policy Response to Stock Market Volatility

The aim of the article is to analyze how the monetary policy of the National Bank of Poland responds to developments on the stock market. The empirical study uses the theoretical framework of the so-called Taylor Rule to determine whether changes in monetary policy in Poland show signs of counteracting stock market fluctuations not related to the stabilization of inflation and the output gap. In the study, a series of Bayesian averaged vector error correction models (VECM) were estimated using monthly data for the years 2001–2015. The obtained results make it possible to argue that monetary policy reacts to significant spikes on the stock market to cushion their impact on the economy. Thus, the policy aims to have a stabilizing effect on capital markets.Celem artykułu jest analiza reakcji polityki pieniężnej Narodowego Banku Polskiego na wydarzenia giełdowe. W badaniu empirycznym wykorzystano ramy teoretyczne reguły Taylora w celu ustalenia czy zmiany polityki monetarnej w Polsce wykazują oznaki przeciwdziałania fluktuacjom giełdowym niewynikającym ze stabilizacji inflacji i luki popytowej. W trakcie badań oszacowano serię bayesowsko uśrednianych modeli wektorowej korekty błędem (VECM) przy użyciu danych miesięcznych dla lat 2001–2015. Uzyskane wyniki pozwalają argumentować, że polityka pieniężna istotnie reaguje na wzrosty na rynku giełdowym w celu amortyzacji ich wpływu na gospodarkę. Efekt ten zaobserwowano zarówno dla nominalnych, jak i realnych stóp procentowych. Tym samym polityka Narodowego Banku Polskiego ma empirycznie obserwowalny charakter opierania się wiatrowi

On the evolution of corruption patterns in the post-communist countries

In this paper, we study the evolution of corruption patterns in 27 post-communist countries during the period 1996-2012 using the Control of Corruption Index and the corruption category Markov transition probability matrix. This method allows us to generate the long-run distribution of corruption among the post-communist countries. Our empirical findings suggest that corruption in the post-communist countries is a very persistent phenomenon that does not change much over time. Several theoretical explanations for such a result are provided

Convergens of interest rates in Poland and Czech before accession to EMU

Celem artykułu1 jest analiza konwergencji stóp procentowych strefy euro oraz dwóch krajów-członków UE z derogacją w kwestii przyjęcia euro – Polski i Czech. Teoria integracji postuluje występowanie pełnej konwergencji stóp procentowych w długim okresie. Oznacza to zatem, iż ewentualna premia za ryzyko powinna maleć w czasie. W artykule postawiono hipotezę, iż następuje konwergencja nominalna między strefą euro a Polską i Czechami, lecz jej tempo jest bardzo słabe. Uzyskane wyniki wskazują, iż w przypadku Polski premia za ryzyko maleje, jednak pozostaje dodatnia. W przypadku Czech dane postulują stałą, dodatnią premię za ryzyko. Hipoteza jest weryfikowana za pomocą modeli wektorowej korekty błędem (VECM).This paper aims at examining the degree of the long-run interest rate convergence in the context of Poland’s and Czech’s accession to EMU. From this point of view it is frequently argued that the expectations of country’s monetary integration should manifest themselves in long-run interest rate convergence. At the same time this implies falling risk premiums. In this paper we raise the question of the actual speed of such convergence and question the existence of this phenomenon in Poland and Czech Republic. The main hypothesis of the article is verified using a VECM model of uncovered interest rate parity