2 research outputs found
Exploring house price dynamics: An agent-based simulation with behavioral heterogeneity
The objective of this study is to contribute to the understanding of price formations in housing markets through an agent-based simulation that conceptualizes insights from behavioral economics. For this purpose, the study uses a prominent real estate market model as a benchmark and extends it to account for (1) behavioral heterogeneity and (2) dynamic agent interaction. The validation of the model is carried out by using real data from the Turkish housing market. The results show that the introduction of a fitness-based behavior-switching regime with myopic agents improves the extent to which the observed market behavior can be replicated, in comparison to the benchmark model
An Experimental Study on Impact of Risk Data Visualization onRisk Evaluations
Risk assessment is a systematic process to characterize and evaluate risk, with the available knowledge. Thus, its success depends significantly on the "availability of knowledge" during the assessment process. The knowledge elicitation from experts, the structure of the risk database and information visualization that may help sense-making from previous projects are critical factors that can improve risk assessment process. Risk assessment is usually carried out at the start of a project and updated during the project in order to understand the level of risk, predict their impacts on project objectives and take necessary mitigation actions. Thus, the success of risk assessment is critical for decisions regarding the estimation of cost and duration, determination of contingency, selection of construction methods, determining contract strategy and preparation of risk management plans. In this paper, it is argued that risk-informed decision-making can be improved by utilisation of risk data visualization during risk assessment. An experimental study has been conducted to explore how risk data and visual aids may improve the quality of risk evaluations of experts during a risk assessment workshop. Experts are requested to evaluate risks associated with a real construction project first by using only their subjective judgements, then by utilising a risk database and finally, by referring to the visual representations of risk data provided. The risk database involves previous project data as well as pre-project and post-project risk evaluations. Results demonstrate that risk-related data and its visualization may improve the risk assessment process. Although, results of this study cannot be generalized for all risk-informed decision-making problems, lessons learned from this study has a potential to be used to design effective risk assessment workshops and improve knowledge elicitation from experts in construction companies