Roses and tulips: dynamics of regime change in Georgia and Kyrgyzstan

The regime changes in Georgia (2003) and Kyrgyzstan (2005) that resulted in the overthrow of Presidents Shevardnadze and Akaev are widely considered to be part of a common phenomenon of 'coloured revolution' in the post-Soviet space. A key factor was the rise of successful opposition movements that dislodged the ruling regimes. However, in contrast with the widespread notion that opposition unity was a prerequisite for the overthrow of the presidents, opposition parties found it too difficult to coordinate their actions and their leaders could not agree how best to challenge the election results. Neither was it the case that the Rose and Tulip revolutions were orchestrated by Western agencies seeking to induce a change of government so as to further US interests in the region. Such analyses exaggerate the influence of foreign actors in the Rose and Tulip revolutions, and over-estimate the unity of purpose among the main opposition parties

Cheque-mates? Abkhazia's quest for international recognition

Abkhazia’s contested status is a source of geopolitical conflict between states and alliances. But how has the campaign to expand this unrecognised state's network of diplomatic contacts been conducted? Using a wealth of contemporary archival material made available by Wikileaks, combined with interviews with key players in the process, this article investigates efforts to secure recognition for Abkhazia in the post-Soviet space, Latin America and amongst the South Pacific microstates. Different regions presented particular challenges and produced variable outcomes, some of which are counter-intuitive. Despite Russia's pre-eminence in the former USSR and its impressive arsenal of inducements and threats, the Kremlin failed to secure a single recognition for Abkhazia, though not from want of asking. Distant Latin America, where internecine Caucasian conflicts mattered little but alliances with Russian and antipathy towards the US were strong, produced the early recognitions and some near misses. As veterans of the China-Taiwan dispute, the microstates of the South Pacific region included many veterans of earlier diplomatic tugs-of-war. With sovereignty for sale, recognitions had a price and could potentially be reversed if these miniature states were presented with a better offer. A final recognition provided by Syria was in large part payback for Russia saving Bashir Al-Assad’s regime from oblivion. With some recognitions dependent on personalities or regimes rather than enduring inter-state solidarity and others influenced by pecuniary considerations, all are vulnerable

Electoral Politics in the De Facto States of the South Caucasus

This article charts the development of electoral politics in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR). It provides an overview of the political systems in these three de facto states, primarily by examining presidential and parliamentary elections. Particular attention is given to the level of competition during these election campaigns and to the level of participation of women and ethnic minorities

Cheque-mates? Abkhazia's quest for international recognition

Abkhazia’s contested status is a source of geopolitical conflict between states and alliances. But how has the campaign to expand this unrecognised state's network of diplomatic contacts been conducted? Using a wealth of contemporary archival material made available by Wikileaks, combined with interviews with key players in the process, this article investigates efforts to secure recognition for Abkhazia in the post-Soviet space, Latin America and amongst the South Pacific microstates. Different regions presented particular challenges and produced variable outcomes, some of which are counter-intuitive. Despite Russia's pre-eminence in the former USSR and its impressive arsenal of inducements and threats, the Kremlin failed to secure a single recognition for Abkhazia, though not from want of asking. Distant Latin America, where internecine Caucasian conflicts mattered little but alliances with Russian and antipathy towards the US were strong, produced the early recognitions and some near misses. As veterans of the China-Taiwan dispute, the microstates of the South Pacific region included many veterans of earlier diplomatic tugs-of-war. With sovereignty for sale, recognitions had a price and could potentially be reversed if these miniature states were presented with a better offer. A final recognition provided by Syria was in large part payback for Russia saving Bashir Al-Assad’s regime from oblivion. With some recognitions dependent on personalities or regimes rather than enduring inter-state solidarity and others influenced by pecuniary considerations, all are vulnerable

American boots and Russian vodka: external factors in the colour revolutions of Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan

'Der Beitrag untersucht die Rolle von externem Druck in der Welle der sogenannten 'farbigen Revolutionen'. Durch die Analyse dreier konkreter Fallbeispiele - der Rosenrevolution in Georgien (2003), der orangenen Revolution in der Ukraine (2004) und der Tulpenrevolution in Kirgisistan (2005) - versuchen wir die Wirkungsbedingungen, aber auch die Beschränkungen, aufzuzeigen, denen externe Akteure, vor allem die USA und Russland, innerhalb der Bewegungen unterlagen, die die Massen mobilisierten - was schließlich zum Sturz der nichtdemokratischen Regime führte.' (Autorenreferat

Cheque-Mates? Abkhazia’s Quest for International Recognition

Abkhazia’s contested status is a source of geopolitical conflict between states and alliances. But how has the campaign to expand this unrecognised state’s network of diplomatic contacts been conducted? Using a wealth of contemporary archival material made available by Wikileaks, combined with interviews with key players in the process, this article investigates efforts to secure recognition for Abkhazia in the post-Soviet space, Latin America and amongst the South Pacific microstates. Different regions presented particular challenges and produced variable outcomes, some of which are counter-intuitive. Despite Russia’s pre-eminence in the former USSR and its impressive arsenal of inducements and threats, the Kremlin failed to secure a single recognition for Abkhazia, though not from want of asking. Distant Latin America, where internecine Caucasian conflicts mattered little but alliances with Russian and antipathy towards the US were strong, produced the early recognitions and some near misses. As veterans of the China-Taiwan dispute, the microstates of the South Pacific region included many veterans of earlier diplomatic tugs-of-war. With sovereignty for sale, recognitions had a price and could potentially be reversed if these miniature states were presented with a better offer. A final recognition provided by Syria was in large part payback for Russia saving Bashir Al-Assad’s regime from oblivion. With some recognitions dependent on personalities or regimes rather than enduring inter-state solidarity and others influenced by pecuniary considerations, all are vulnerable

What Happened to the Colour Revolutions? Authoritarian Responses from Former Soviet Spaces

In this paper we survey how colour revolutions have succeeded or failed in post communist spaces to identify the correlation between the attitude of the authorities, and their capacity to produce a backlash, and the failure of a colour revolution. By analysing the role of external forces in colour revolutions we explore problems associated with the export of democracy to post-socialist spaces, suggesting that colour revolutions have prompted a validation of actors, their performances and claims by the authorities that have then learned to use those techniques to challenge the opposition. This limited the effect of colour revolutions in the remaining countries