Human Rights Violations After 9/11 and the Role of Constitutional Constraints

human rights, terrorism, 9/11, checks and balances, constitutions, constitutional courts

Does Finance Bolster Superstar Companies? Banks, Venture Capital, and Firm Size in Local U.S. Markets

We study the relative effect of venture capital and bank finance on large manufacturing firms in local U.S. markets. Theory predicts that with venture capital, the firm size distribution should become more stretched-out to the right, but it’s ambiguous on the effect of banks on large firms. The empirical evidence suggests that while the average size of firms in the top bin of the firm size distribution has remained unaffected by banking sector developments, it has increased with venture capital investment. We argue that this is due to the emergence of new corporate giants rather than the growth of existing ones. JEL Classification: G24, J24, L11banking, firm size, Venture Capital

Comparing and evaluating Bayesian predictive distributions of assets returns

Bayesian inference in a time series model provides exact, out-of-sample predictive distributions that fully and coherently incorporate parameter uncertainty. This study compares and evaluates Bayesian predictive distributions from alternative models, using as an illustration five alternative models of asset returns applied to daily S&P 500 returns from 1976 through 2005. The comparison exercise uses predictive likelihoods and is inherently Bayesian. The evaluation exercise uses the probability integral transform and is inherently frequentist. The illustration shows that the two approaches can be complementary, each identifying strengths and weaknesses in models that are not evident using the other. JEL Classification: C11, C53forecasting, GARCH, inverse probability transform, Markov mixture, predictive likelihood, S&P 500 returns, stochastic volatility

Why the effective price for money exceeds the policy rate in the ECB tenders?

The tender spread, i.e. the difference between the effective price for money in the ECB’s main refinancing operations and the prevailing policy rate, is one of the main determinants behind the evolution of the EONIA with respect to the ECB’s operational target. This study assesses the reasons for which the average tender spread did not reduce after the banks’ demand for liquidity was isolated from their interest rate expectations in March 2004. The paper offers two potential explanations for the unexpected behavior. First, following the increased precision in the ECB’s liquidity provision after the end-of- period fine tuning operations were added to the regularly applied tools, even a small bias in the liquidity supply could have resulted in a strictly positive tender spread. Second, banks’ uncertainty over their individual allotments in the tender operations may have led to a strictly positive tender spread. Furthermore, the significant growth in the refinancing volumes may have intensified the allotment uncertainty. JEL Classification: D44, E58EONIA, liquidity, main refinancing operations, tenders

Have euro area and EU economic governance worked? Just the facts

We test whether two key elements of the EU and euro area economic governance framework, the Stability and Growth Pact and the Lisbon Strategy, have had any impact on macroeconomic outcomes. We test this proposition using a difference-in-difference approach on a panel of over 30 countries, some of which are non-EU (control group). Hence, the impact of the EU economic governance pillars is evaluated based on both the performance before and after their application as well as against the control group. We find strong and robust evidence that neither the Stability and Growth Pact nor the Lisbon Strategy have had a significant beneficial impact on fiscal and economic performance outcomes. We conclude that a profound reform of these pillars is needed to make them work in the next decade. JEL Classification: E62, E63, H63, O43euro area, European Union, governance, institutions, Lisbon Strategy, Stability and Growth Pact

Does the euro make a difference? Spatio-temporal transmission of global shocks to real effective exchange rates in an infinite VAR

This paper provides evidence on whether the creation of the euro has changed the way global turbulences affect euro area and other economies. Specifically, it considers the impact of global shocks on the competitiveness of individual euro area countries and assesses whether their responses to such shocks have converged, as well as to what pattern. Technically, the paper applies a newly developed methodology based on infinite VAR theory featuring a dominant unit to a large set of over 60 countries' real effective exchange rates, including those of the individual euro area economies, and compares impulse response functions to the estimated systems before and after EMU with respect to three types of shocks: a global US dollar shock, generalised impulse response function shocks and a global shock to risk aversion. Our results show that the way euro area countries' real effective exchange rates adjust to these shocks has converged indeed, albeit to a pattern that depends crucially on the nature of the shock. This result is noteworthy given the apparent divergence in competitiveness indicators of these countries in the first ten years of EMU, which suggests that this diverging pattern is unlikely to be due to global external shocks with asymmetric effects but rather to other factors, such as country-specific domestic shocks. JEL Classification: C21, C23euro, High-Dimensional VAR, Identification of Shocks, Real Effective Exchange Rates, Weak and Strong Cross Sectional Dependence