Predicting the peak growth velocity in the individual child: validation of a new growth model

Predicting the peak growth velocity in an individual patient with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis is essential or determining the prognosis of the disorder and timing of the (surgical) treatment. Until the present time, no accurate method has been found to predict the timing and magnitude of the pubertal growth spurt in the individual child. A mathematical model was developed in which the partial individual growth velocity curve was linked to the generic growth velocity curve. The generic curve was shifted and stretched or shrunk, both along the age axis and the height velocity axis. The individual age and magnitude of the PGV were obtained from the new predicted complete growth velocity curve. Predictions were made using 2, 1.5, 1 and 0.5 years of the available longitudinal data of the individual child, starting at different ages. The predicted values of 210 boys and 162 girls were compared to the child’s own original values of the PGV. The individual differences were compared to differences obtained when using the generic growth velocity curve as a standard. Using 2 years of data as input for the model, all predictions of the age of the PGV in boys and girls were significantly better in comparison to using the generic values. Using only 0.5 years of data as input, the predictions with a starting age from 13 to 15.5 years in boys and from 9.5 to 14.5 years in girls were significantly better. Similar results were found for the predictions of the magnitude of the PGV. This model showed highly accurate results in predicting the individual age and magnitude of the PGV, which can be used in the treatment of patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

Comparing open and minimally invasive surgical procedures for oesophagectomy in the treatment of cancer: the ROMIO (Randomised Oesophagectomy: Minimally Invasive or Open) feasibility study and pilot trial

Localised oesophageal cancer can be curatively treated with surgery (oesophagectomy) but the procedure is complex with a risk of complications, negative effects on quality of life and a recovery period of 6-9 months. Minimal-access surgery may accelerate recovery.The ROMIO (Randomised Oesophagectomy: Minimally Invasive or Open) study aimed to establish the feasibility of, and methodology for, a definitive trial comparing minimally invasive and open surgery for oesophagectomy. Objectives were to quantify the number of eligible patients in a pilot trial; develop surgical manuals as the basis for quality assurance; standardise pathological processing; establish a method to blind patients to their allocation in the first week post surgery; identify measures of postsurgical outcome of importance to patients and clinicians; and establish the main cost differences between the surgical approaches.Pilot parallel three-arm randomised controlled trial nested within feasibility work.Two UK NHS departments of upper gastrointestinal surgery.Patients aged ≥ 18 years with histopathological evidence of oesophageal or oesophagogastric junctional adenocarcinoma, squamous cell cancer or high-grade dysplasia, referred for oesophagectomy or oesophagectomy following neoadjuvant chemo(radio)therapy.Oesophagectomy, with patients randomised to open surgery, a hybrid open chest and minimally invasive abdomen or totally minimally invasive access.The primary outcome measure for the pilot trial was the number of patients recruited per month, with the main trial considered feasible if at least 2.5 patients per month were recruited.During 21 months of recruitment, 263 patients were assessed for eligibility; of these, 135 (51%) were found to be eligible and 104 (77%) agreed to participate, an average of five patients per month. In total, 41 patients were allocated to open surgery, 43 to the hybrid procedure and 20 to totally minimally invasive surgery. Recruitment is continuing, allowing a seamless transition into the definitive trial. Consequently, the database is unlocked at the time of writing and data presented here are for patients recruited by 31 August 2014. Random allocation achieved a good balance between the arms of the study, which, as a high proportion of patients underwent their allocated surgery (69/79, 87%), ensured a fair comparison between the interventions. Dressing patients with large bandages, covering all possible incisions, was successful in keeping patients blind while pain was assessed during the first week post surgery. Postsurgical length of stay and risk of adverse events were within the typical range for this group of patients, with one death occurring within 30 days among 76 patients. There were good completion rates for the assessment of pain at 6 days post surgery (88%) and of the patient-reported outcomes at 6 weeks post randomisation (74%).Rapid recruitment to the pilot trial and the successful refinement of methodology indicated the feasibility of a definitive trial comparing different approaches to oesophagectomy. Although we have shown a full trial of open compared with minimally invasive oesophagectomy to be feasible, this is necessarily based on our findings from the two clinical centres that we could include in this small preliminary study.Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN59036820.This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 48. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

The inevitable youthfulness of known high-redshift radio galaxies

Radio galaxies can be seen out to very high redshifts, where in principle they can serve as probes of the early evolution of the Universe. Here we show that for any model of radio-galaxy evolution in which the luminosity decreases with time after an initial rapid increase (that is, essentially all reasonable models), all observable high-redshift radio-galaxies must be seen when the lobes are less than 10^7 years old. This means that high-redshift radio galaxies can be used as a high-time-resolution probe of evolution in the early Universe. Moreover, this result helps to explain many observed trends of radio-galaxy properties with redshift [(i) the `alignment effect' of optical emission along radio-jet axes, (ii) the increased distortion in radio structure, (iii) the decrease in physical sizes, (iv) the increase in radio depolarisation, and (v) the increase in dust emission] without needing to invoke explanations based on cosmology or strong evolution of the surrounding intergalactic medium with cosmic time, thereby avoiding conflict with current theories of structure formation.Comment: To appear in Nature. 4 pages, 2 colour figures available on request. Also available at http://www-astro.physics.ox.ac.uk/~km

A massive reservoir of low-excitation molecular gas at high redshift

Molecular hydrogen is an important component of galaxies because it fuels star formation and accretion onto AGN, the two processes that generate the large infrared luminosities of gas-rich galaxies. Observations of spectral-line emission from the tracer molecule CO are used to probe the properties of this gas. But the lines that have been studied in the local Universe, mostly the lower rotational transitions of J = 1-0 and J = 2-1, have hitherto been unobservable in high-redshift galaxies. Instead, higher transitions have been used, although the densities and temperatures required to excite these higher transitions may not be reached by much of the gas. As a result, past observations may have underestimated the total amount of molecular gas by a substantial amount. Here we report the discovery of large amounts of low-excitation molecular gas around the infrared-luminous quasar, APM 08279+5255 at z = 3.91, using the two lowest excitation lines of 12CO (J = 1-0 and J = 2-1). The maps confirm the presence of hot and dense gas near the nucleus, and reveal an extended reservoir of molecular gas with low excitation that is 10 to 100 times more massive than the gas traced by higher-excitation observations. This raises the possibility that significant amounts of low-excitation molecular gas may lurk in the environments of high-redshift (z > 3) galaxies.Comment: To appear as a Letter to Nature, 4th January 200

State-of-practice on as-is modelling of industrial facilities

90% of the time needed for the conversion from point clouds to 3D models of industrial facilities is spent on geometric modelling due to the sheer number of Industrial Objects (IOs) of each plant. Hence, cost reduction is only possible by automating modelling. Our previous work has successfully identified the most frequent industrial objects which are in descending order: electrical conduit, straight pipes, circular hollow sections, elbows, channels, solid bars, I-beams, angles, flanges and valves. We modelled those on a state-of-theart software, EdgeWise and then evaluated the performance of this software for pipeline and structural modelling. The modelling of pipelines is summarized in three basic steps: (a) automated extraction of cylinders, (b) their semantic classification and (c) manual extraction and editing of pipes. The results showed that cylinders are modelled with 75 % recall and 62 % precision on average. We discovered that pipes, electrical conduit and circular hollow sections require 80 % of the Total Modelling Hours (TMH) of the 10 most frequent IOs to build the plant model. TMH was then compared to modelling hours in Revit and showed that 67 % of pipe modelling time is saved by EdgeWise. This paper is the first to evaluate state-of-the-art industrial modelling software. These findings help in better understanding the problem and serve as the foundation for researchers who are interested in solving i

Predicting growth and curve progression in the individual patient with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: design of a prospective longitudinal cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Scoliosis is present in 3-5% of the children in the adolescent age group, with a higher incidence in females. Treatment of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis is mainly dependent on the progression of the scoliotic curve. There is a close relationship between curve progression and rapid (spinal) growth of the patient during puberty. However, until present time no conclusive method was found for predicting the timing and magnitude of the pubertal growth spurt in total body height, or the curve progression of the idiopathic scoliosis.</p> <p>The goal of this study is to determine the predictive value of several maturity indicators that reflect growth or remaining growth potential, in order to predict timing of the peak growth velocity of total body height in the individual patient with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Furthermore, different parameters are evaluated for their correlation with curve progression in the individual scoliosis patient.</p> <p>Methods/design</p> <p>This prospective, longitudinal cohort study will be incorporated in the usual care of patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. All new patients between 8 and 17 years with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (Cobb angle >10 degrees) visiting the outpatient clinic of the University Medical Center Groningen are included in this study. Follow up will take place every 6 months. The present study will use a new ultra-low dose X-ray system which can make total body X-rays. Several maturity indicators are evaluated like different body length dimensions, secondary sexual characteristics, skeletal age in hand and wrist, skeletal age in the elbow, the Risser sign, the status of the triradiate cartilage, and EMG ratios of the paraspinal muscle activity.</p> <p>Correlations of all dimensions will be calculated in relationship to the timing of the pubertal growth spurt, and to the progression of the scoliotic curve. An algorithm will be made for the optimal treatment strategy in the individual patient with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study will determine the value of many maturity indicators and will be useful as well for other clinicians treating children with disorders of growth. Since not all clinicians have access to the presented new 3D X-ray system or have the time to make EMG's, for example, all indicators will be correlated to the timing of the peak growth velocity of total body height and curve progression in idiopathic scoliosis. Therefore each clinician can chose which indicators can be used best in their practice.</p> <p>Trial registration number</p> <p>NTR2048</p