Saving behaviour and global imbalances: the role of emerging market economies

In recent years there has been considerable variation in savings patterns across countries and regions, with implications for the configuration of global current account balances, asset valuations and real interest rates. This paper looks at the empirical drivers behind these trends. It uses a reduced-form model that relates private savings to a set of economic fundamentals, while controlling for structural and institutional differences across countries. Addressing a typical shortcoming of the previous literature, estimates are obtained from a dynamic model, which accounts for cross-sectional heterogeneity. The results suggest that saving rates in emerging economies are higher than cross-country estimates based on fundamentals, particularly in Asia. Demographic factors and financial catching-up have been key drivers of the observed changes in savings in these economies. Looking ahead, the prospective population aging is likely to lead to a considerable fall in saving rates in many economies - albeit the process will take decades to unfold. Further progress in financial deepening in developing economies may be conducive to a redistribution of international saving flows and may potentially support a smoother adjustment of global imbalances. JEL Classification: E20, E60emerging economies, global imbalances, panel error correction model, pooled mean group estimation, Private savings

Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: a contribution to assessing risks to price stability

The long-run relationship between money and prices in the euro area embedded in traditional money demand models with income and interest rates broke down after 2001. We develop a money demand model where investors hold a diversified portfolio with money, domestic and foreign stocks and long-term bonds in which, in addition to the classical wealth effect, also a size and an international portfolio allocation effects arise. The estimated model identifies three cointegrating vectors stable over the sample 1980-2007: a long-run money demand, which depends on income and all risky assets' returns, and two equilibria for the euro area and the US financial markets. Steady state equilibrium of nominal M3 growth is estimated to be about 7% in 2007 with large standard errors mainly due to uncertainty in asset prices. The gap between actual euro area M3 growth and model-based fitted or predicted values helps forecast euro area inflation. JEL Classification: E41, E44, E52, G11, G15Euro area money demand, Inflation forecasts, monetary policy, portfolio allocation

The political economy under monetary union: has the euro made a difference?

Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has transformed Europe and has created an integrated pan-European economy. Much research has focused on understanding this integration process and what benefits and costs it entails. This paper identifies a political economy channel of EMU as the monetary union implies that member states had to transfer or at least curtail their policy autonomy in several areas, such as monetary policy and fiscal policy. The paper shows that EMU has helped reduce the impact of political shocks on the domestic economy of member states but magnified the transmission of political shocks within the euro area. Equally importantly, economies with a weaker track record in terms of economic and institutional quality exhibited a significantly higher sensitivity to domestic political shocks before EMU, but not thereafter. While this may entail that EMU has brought benefits to countries with a weaker economic and institutional stability by insulating them from adverse political developments at home, a potential drawback is that it may provide weaker market discipline for domestic political stability. JEL Classification: F31, F33, G14EMU, Fiscal Policy, monetary policy, political economy, political news, Stock Markets, transmission

Ergonomics and sustainability: Towards and embrace of complexity and emergence

Technology offers a promising route to a sustainable future, and ergonomics can serve a vital role. The argument of this article is that the lasting success of sustainability initiatives in ergonomics hinges on an examination of ergonomics' own epistemology and ethics. The epistemology of ergonomics is fundamentally empiricist and positivist. This places practical constraints on its ability to address important issues such as sustainability, emergence and complexity. The implicit ethical position of ergonomics is one of neutrality, and its positivist epistemology generally puts value-laden questions outside the parameters of what it sees as scientific practice. We argue, by contrast, that a discipline that deals with both technology and human beings cannot avoid engaging with questions of complexity and emergence and seeking innovative ways of addressing these issues.No Full Tex

PVR: Patch-to-Volume Reconstruction for Large Area Motion Correction of Fetal MRI

In this paper we present a novel method for the correction of motion artifacts that are present in fetal Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scans of the whole uterus. Contrary to current slice-to-volume registration (SVR) methods, requiring an inflexible anatomical enclosure of a single investigated organ, the proposed patch-to-volume reconstruction (PVR) approach is able to reconstruct a large field of view of non-rigidly deforming structures. It relaxes rigid motion assumptions by introducing a specific amount of redundant information that is exploited with parallelized patch-wise optimization, super-resolution, and automatic outlier rejection. We further describe and provide an efficient parallel implementation of PVR allowing its execution within reasonable time on commercially available graphics processing units (GPU), enabling its use in the clinical practice. We evaluate PVR's computational overhead compared to standard methods and observe improved reconstruction accuracy in presence of affine motion artifacts of approximately 30% compared to conventional SVR in synthetic experiments. Furthermore, we have evaluated our method qualitatively and quantitatively on real fetal MRI data subject to maternal breathing and sudden fetal movements. We evaluate peak-signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR), structural similarity index (SSIM), and cross correlation (CC) with respect to the originally acquired data and provide a method for visual inspection of reconstruction uncertainty. With these experiments we demonstrate successful application of PVR motion compensation to the whole uterus, the human fetus, and the human placenta.Comment: 10 pages, 13 figures, submitted to IEEE Transactions on Medical Imaging. v2: wadded funders acknowledgements to preprin

Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?

The ECB objective is set in terms of year on year growth rate of the Euro area HICP. Nonetheless, a good deal of attention is given to national data by market analysts when they try to anticipate monetary policy moves. In this paper we use the Generalized Dynamic Factor model to develop a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national data with area wide information, allow us to answer two related questions. The first is whether country specific data actually bear any relevance for the future path of area wide price growth, over and above that already contained in area wide data. The second is whether in order to track ECB monetary policy decisions it is useful to take into account national information and not only area wide statistics. In both cases our findings point to the conclusion that, once area wide information is properly taken into account, there is little to be gained from considering national idiosyncratic developments. JEL Classification: C25, E37, E52dynamic factor model, forecasting, inflation, monetary policy, Taylor rule

Interoperability between central counterparties

In reaction to recent requests for interoperability between central counterparties of European stock markets, regulators have issued new guidelines to contain systemic risk. Our analysis confirms that the currently applied cross-CCP risk management model can be a source of contagion, particularly if applied in multilateral frameworks. While regulators' new guidelines eliminate systemic risk, this comes at the cost of an inefficiently overcollateralised clearing system. We discuss further approaches that contain systemic risk while reducing or eliminating overcollateralisation. Interoperability is of economic importance as it may contribute to the efficiency and safety of a worldwide fragmented clearing infrastructure.interoperability between central counterparties, financial network, systemic risk, netting efficiency