Rice World Market Prices

The marketing loan program associated with rice features benefits calculated using a USDA-announced World Market Price (WMP) rather than the posted county prices that are used for most other commodities. This results in reduced risk protection for producers relative to other crops, and greater difficulty in making optimal use of program benefits. This research investigates the rice WMP, identifying the relative importance of various foreign prices and other potential influencing factors. The results of this research have important implications for financial planning and optimal risk management strategies for rice producers.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Domino effect for world market fluctuations

In order to emphasize cross-correlations for fluctuations in major market places, series of up and down spins are built from financial data. Patterns frequencies are measured, and statistical tests performed. Strong cross-correlations are emphasized, proving that market moves are collective behaviors.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, submitted to EPJ

Time-Varying World Market Integration

We propose a conditional measure of capital market integration that allows us to characterize both the cross-section and time-series of expected returns in developed and emerging markets. Our measure, which arises from a conditional regime-switching model, allows us to describe expected returns in countries that are segmented from world capital markets in one part of the sample and become integrated later in the sample. Our results suggest that a number of emerging markets exhibit time-varying integration. Interestingly, some markets appear to be more integrated than one might expect based on prior knowledge of investment restrictions. Other markets appear segmented even though foreigners have relatively free access to their capital markets.

World Market for Mergers and Acquisitions

Despite the fact that one-third of worldwide mergers involve firms from different countries, the vast majority of the academic literature on mergers studies domestic mergers. What little has been written about cross-border mergers has focused on public firms, usually from the United States. Yet, the vast majority of cross-border mergers involve private firms that are not from the United States. We provide an analysis of a sample of 56,978 cross-border mergers occurring between 1990 and 2007. We first characterize the patterns of who buys whom: Geography matters, with firms being much more likely to purchase firms in nearby countries than in countries far away. Purchasers are usually but not always from developed countries and they tend to purchase firms in countries with lower accounting standards. A significant factor in determining acquisition patterns is currency movements; firms tend to purchase firms from countries relative to which the currency of the acquirers country has appreciated. In addition, economy-wide factors reflected in the countrys stock market returns lead to acquisitions as well. Both the currency and stock market effect could suggest either misvaluation or wealth explanations. Our evidence is more consistent with the wealth explanation than the misvaluation explanation.Mergers; Currency movements; Market movements; Valuation

Current log-periodic view on future world market development

Applicability of the concept of financial log-periodicity is discussed and encouragingly verified for various phases of the world stock markets development in the period 2000-2010. In particular, a speculative forecasting scenario designed in the end of 2004, that properly predicted the world stock market increases in 2007, is updated by setting some more precise constraints on the time of duration of the present long-term equity market bullish phase. A termination of this phase is evaluated to occur in around November 2009. In particular, on the way towards this dead-line, a Spring-Summer 2008 increase is expected. On the precious metals market a forthcoming critical time signal is detected at the turn of March/April 2008 which marks a tendency for at least a serious correction to begin. In the present extended version some predictions for the future oil price are incorporated. In particular a serious correction on this market is expected to start in the coming days.Comment: presented by S. Drozdz at FENS2007 conference, 10 pages, 6 Figs, an extended version with the oil market included (Fig.7

MARKET POWER IN THE WORLD MARKET FOR SOYMEAL EXPORTS

In this article, the degree of imperfect competition in the world market for soymeal exports is estimated using a structural econometric model. The procedure consists of estimating a demand function and the industry first-order profit-maximization condition, from which an estimate of the degree of market power can be retrieved. Using a nonlinear three-stage least squares procedure, the estimate of market power shows that the world market for soymeal exports is perfectly competitive. The empirical results also indicate that this market was competitive even prior to entry by Argentinean firms in the mid-1970s.Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,

A new agricultural policy for a new world market

A new farm bill will be enacted in 1995, and the debate over it has already begun. With farm bills being renewed just once every five years, the 1995 bill provides a propitious opportunity to re-evaluate the current bill in light of fundamental changes to the marketplace since the adoption of the 1990 bill. One of the most important changes since then has been in the world food market. Selling successfully in world markets is vital to U.S. agriculture because it produces far more food than domestic consumers require. Thus, while the upcoming farm bill will spawn debate on many issues, few will be more important than reconciling U.S. agricultural policy with a new world food market.> Recent developments in the world food market reflect basic changes in two key market features. The market for finished food products is much stronger than for bulk commodities. And the food market has been growing more rapidly in Asia and North America than in Europe. If these trends persist, will current farm policy be in step with the world food market of the future? Barkema and Drabenstott examine the factors likely to shape the world market and conclude that agricultural policy must be overhauled if U.S. agriculture is to excel in tomorrow's marketplace.Agriculture ; Agriculture - Forecasting ; Exports

INFLUENCES OF THE GOVERNMENTAL MARKET INTERVENTIONS ON WHEAT MARKETS IN SERBIA DURING THE FOOD CRISIS 2007/2008

This paper analyzes how the market interventions of the Serbian government during the food crisis 2007/2008, inter alia a de facto export ban, have affected domestic wheat markets. Besides a comprehensive description of the crisis policy and its effects on the Serbian wheat market, we investigate how it influences the equilibrium and stability of the Serbian wheat market and its integration with the world market within a price transmission model. Applying a Markov-switching error correction model to weekly wheat grower prices in Serbia and world market prices, two states of the wheat market are identified. Our results suggest that although the long-run price elasticity did not change during the crisis, the market equilibrium was disrupted and the market stability reduced. Also, we find that the price dampening effect of the export restrictions was only short-lived, and that Serbian wheat grower prices even increased above the world market level.international market integration, Markov-Switching Error Correction Model, Serbia, wheat market, world market price transmission, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, C34, Q11, Q13, Q17, Q18,

Has the Emergence of China Hurt Asian Exports?

We investigate whether the exports of manufactured products by the South Asian and South East Asian countries have been negatively affected by the rise of China. Using a panel data approach, we find that increases in world market shares of China are statistically correlated with declines in world market shares for some Asian countries since 1994, but not before 1994.exports, China, Asian crisis