Decision by sampling: the role of the decision environment in risky choice

Decision by sampling (DbS) is a theory about how our environment shapes the decisions that we make. Here, I review the application of DbS to risky decision making. According to classical theories of risky decision making, people make stable transformations between outcomes and probabilities and their subjective counterparts using fixed psychoeconomic functions. DbS offers a quite different account. In DbS, the subjective value of an outcome or probability is derived from a series of binary, ordinal comparisons with a sample of other outcomes or probabilities from the decision environment. In this way, the distribution of attribute values in the environment determines the subjective valuations of outcomes and probabilities. I show how DbS interacts with the real-world distributions of gains, losses, and probabilities to produce the classical psychoeconomic functions. I extend DbS to account for preferences in benchmark data sets. Finally, in a challenge to the classical notion of stable subjective valuations, I review evidence that manipulating the distribution of attribute values in the environment changes our subjective valuations just as DbS predicts

Are risk preferences dynamic? : Within-subject variation in risk-taking as a function of background music

This paper investigates whether preference interactions can explain why risk preferences change over time and across contexts. We conduct an experiment in which subjects accept or reject gambles involving real money gains and losses. We introduce within-subject variation by alternating subjectively liked music and disliked music in the background. We find that favourite music increases risk-taking, and disliked music suppresses risk-taking, compared to a baseline of no music. Several theories in psychology propose mechanisms by which mood affects risktaking, but none of them fully explain our results. The results are, however, consistent with preference complementarities that extend to risk preference

Optimizing the depth and the direction of prospective planning using information values

Evaluating the future consequences of actions is achievable by simulating a mental search tree into the future. Expanding deep trees, however, is computationally taxing. Therefore, machines and humans use a plan-until-habit scheme that simulates the environment up to a limited depth and then exploits habitual values as proxies for consequences that may arise in the future. Two outstanding questions in this scheme are “in which directions the search tree should be expanded?”, and “when should the expansion stop?”. Here we propose a principled solution to these questions based on a speed/accuracy tradeoff: deeper expansion in the appropriate directions leads to more accurate planning, but at the cost of slower decision-making. Our simulation results show how this algorithm expands the search tree effectively and efficiently in a grid-world environment. We further show that our algorithm can explain several behavioral patterns in animals and humans, namely the effect of time-pressure on the depth of planning, the effect of reward magnitudes on the direction of planning, and the gradual shift from goal-directed to habitual behavior over the course of training. The algorithm also provides several predictions testable in animal/human experiments

Measuring time preferences

We review research that measures time preferences—i.e., preferences over intertemporal tradeoffs. We distinguish between studies using financial flows, which we call “money earlier or later” (MEL) decisions and studies that use time-dated consumption/effort. Under different structural models, we show how to translate what MEL experiments directly measure (required rates of return for financial flows) into a discount function over utils. We summarize empirical regularities found in MEL studies and the predictive power of those studies. We explain why MEL choices are driven in part by some factors that are distinct from underlying time preferences.National Institutes of Health (NIA R01AG021650 and P01AG005842) and the Pershing Square Fund for Research in the Foundations of Human Behavior

Effects of user experience on user resistance to change to the voice user interface of an in‑vehicle infotainment system: Implications for platform and standards competition

This study examines the effects of user experience on user resistance to change—particularly, on the relationship between user resistance to change and its antecedents (i.e. switching costs and perceived value) in the context of the voice user interface of an in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) system. This research offers several salient findings. First, it shows that user experience positively moderates the relationship between uncertainty costs (one type of switching cost) and user resistance. It also negatively moderates the association between perceived value and user resistance. Second, the research test results demonstrate that users with a high degree of prior experience with the voice user interface of other smart devices exhibit low user resistance to change to the voice user interface in an IVI system. Third, we show that three types of switching costs (transition costs, in particular) may directly influence users to resist a change to the voice user interface. Fourth, our test results empirically demonstrate that both switching costs and perceived value affect user resistance to change in the context of an IVI system, which differs from the traditional IS research setting (i.e. enterprise systems). These findings may guide not only platform leaders in designing user interfaces, user experiences, and marketing strategies, but also firms that want to defend themselves from platform envelopment while devising defensive strategies in platform and standards competition

Aging and risk taking: toward an integration of cognitive, emotional, and neurobiological perspectives

In this article, we characterize the relationship between natural aging and risky decision making through an integration of cognitive, emotional, and neurobiological theories on the effects of natural aging. Based on the existing evidence, we propose that the positivity emotional bias in elderly adults steers them away from taking high risks and toward more conservative approaches during decision making as part of their positive emotional regulatory strategies. However, aging is also associated with marked declines in cognitive functioning, such as attention and working memory, as well as impaired reinforcement-based associative learning, which arises from anatomical and functional declines in the dopaminergic transmission systems and in distinct brain regions such as the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and hippocampus. In consequence, elderly adults may deviate from their usual conservative stance and toward more risk-taking tendencies, as observed in a subset of studies, if the demands of the risk-taking task exceed their cognitive and learning capacities. More empirical investigations are needed to determine the key factors that influence elderly individuals' decision making and behavior in risky situations. Research in this field is likely to have important practical implications for the financial and medical decision making of elderly adults, as well as promoting designated help targeting the elderly population in making important life decisions.published_or_final_versio

The effect of anticipated and experienced regret and pride on investors' future selling decisions : [Version November 2012]

This paper investigates the effect of anticipated/experienced regret and pride on individual investors’ decisions to hold or sell a winning or losing investment, in the form of the disposition effect. As expected the results suggest that in the loss domain, low anticipated regret predicts a greater probability of selling a losing investment. While in the gain domain, high anticipated pride indicates a greater probability of selling a winning investment. The effects of high experienced regret/pride on the selling probability are found as well. An unexpected finding is that regret (pride) seems to be not only relevant for the loss (gain) domain, but also for the gain (loss) domain. In addition, this paper presents evidence of interconnectedness between anticipated and experienced emotions. The authors discuss the implications of these findings and possible avenues for further research

Complexity and Biases

We examine experimentally how complexity affects decision-making, when individuals choose among different products with varying benefits and costs. We find that complexity in costs leads to choosing a high-benefit product, with high costs and overall lower payoffs. In contrast, when complexity is in the benefits of the product, we cannot reject the hypothesis of random mistakes. We also examine the role of heterogeneous complexity. We find that individuals still (mistakenly) choose the high-benefit but costly product, even if cheaper and simple products are available. Our results suggest that salience is a main driver of choices under different forms of complexity

Die Rolle der Zielnähe und der investierten Anstrengung für den erwarteten Wert einer Handlung

In human neuroscientific research, there has been an increasing interest in how the brain computes the value of an anticipated outcome. However, evidence is still missing about which valuation related brain regions are modulated by the proximity to an expected goal and the previously invested effort to reach a goal. The aim of this dissertation is to investigate the effects of goal proximity and invested effort on valuation related regions in the human brain. We addressed this question in two fMRI studies by integrating a commonly used reward anticipation task in differential versions of a Multitrial Reward Schedule Paradigm. In both experiments, subjects had to perform consecutive reward anticipation tasks under two different reward contingencies: in the delayed condition, participants received a monetary reward only after successful completion of multiple consecutive trials. In the immediate condition, money was earned after every successful trial. In the first study, we could demonstrate that the rostral cingulate zone of the posterior medial frontal cortex signals action value contingent to goal proximity, thereby replicating neurophysiological findings about goal proximity signals in a homologous region in non-human primates. The findings of the second study imply that brain regions associated with general cognitive control processes are modulated by previous effort investment. Furthermore, we found the posterior lateral prefrontal cortex and the orbitofrontal cortex to be involved in coding for the effort-based context of a situation. In sum, these results extend the role of the human rostral cingulate zone in outcome evaluation to the continuous updating of action values over a course of action steps based on the proximity to the expected reward. Furthermore, we tentatively suggest that previous effort investment invokes processes under the control of the executive system, and that posterior lateral prefrontal cortex and the orbitofrontal cortex are involved in an effort-based context representation that can be used for outcome evaluation that is dependent on the characteristics of the current situation.Derzeit besteht im Bereich der Neurowissenschaften ein großes Interesse daran aufzuklären, auf welche Weise verschiedene Variablen die Wertigkeit eines erwarteten Handlungsziels beeinflussen bzw. welche Hirnregionen an der Repräsentation der Wertigkeit eines Handlungsziels beteiligt sind. Die meisten Untersuchungen beziehen sich dabei auf Einflussgrößen wie die erwartete Belohnungshöhe, die Wahrscheinlichkeit, mit der ein bestimmtes Ereignis eintritt, oder die Dauer bis zum Erhalt einer Belohnung. Bisher liegen jedoch kaum Untersuchungen vor bezüglich zweier anderer Variablen, die ebenfalls den erwarteten Wert eines Handlungsergebnisses beeinflussen. Das sind (a) die Nähe zu dem erwarteten Ziel und (b) die bisher investierte Anstrengung, um ein Ziel zu erreichen. Das Ziel der vorliegenden Dissertation ist zu untersuchen, wie die Nähe zum Ziel und die bisher investierte Anstrengung Gehirnregionen beeinflussen, die mit der Repräsentation von Wertigkeit im Zusammenhang stehen. Dazu führten wir zwei fMRT-Studien durch, in denen wir eine klassische Belohnungs-Antizipationsaufgabe in unterschiedliche Versionen eines „Multitrial Reward Schedule“ Paradigmas integriert haben. Das bedeutet, dass die Probanden Belohnungs-Antizipationsaufgaben unter zwei unterschiedlichen Belohnungskontingenzen bearbeiteten: In der verzögerten Bedingung erhielten die Probanden einen Geldbetrag nach der erfolgreichen Bearbeitung von mehreren aufeinanderfolgenden Aufgaben, in der direkten Bedingung dagegen nach jeder korrekt ausgeführten Aufgabe. In der ersten Studie konnte eine sukzessiv ansteigende Aktivität in Abhängigkeit zur Zielnähe in der rostralen cingulären Zone identifiziert werden. Das deutet darauf hin, dass dieses Areal den Wert einer Handlung in Abhängigkeit zur Nähe zum Ziel kodiert. Die Ergebnisse der zweiten Studie zeigten, dass die bisher investierte Anstrengung kortikale Regionen moduliert, die klassischerweise mit kognitiven Kontrollfunktionen in Zusammenhang gebracht werden. Außerdem repräsentierten der posteriore laterale präfrontale Cortex und der orbitofrontale Cortex den motivationalen Kontext eines Trials anhand des Risikos des Verlustes von bisher investierter Anstrengung. Insgesamt weisen diese Befunde darauf hin, dass die rostrale cinguläre Zone eine entscheidende Rolle spielt für die Kontrolle sequenzieller Handlungsstufen, die auf eine verzögerte Belohnung ausgerichtet sind. Diese Kontrollfunktion scheint auf der kontinuierlichen Aktualisierung des Wertes einer Handlungsstufe zu basieren, der von der aktuellen Zielnähe bestimmt wird. Die Befunde der zweiten Studie lassen darauf schließen, dass sich die bisher investierte Anstrengung zur Erreichung eines Handlungsziels auf die Bereitstellung von allgemeinen kognitiven Ressourcen auswirkt. Das Risiko des Verlustes von bisher investierter Anstrengung kann außerdem ein kontextuelles Merkmal der Situation darstellen, das als Bezugsrahmen für die Evaluation des erwarteten Wertes dienen kann

Effects of Acute Stress on Aircrew Performance: Literature Review and Analysis of Operational Aspects

Situational stress can adversely affect the cognition and skilled performance of pilots, as well as experts in other domains. Emergencies and other threatening situations require pilots to execute infrequently practiced procedures correctly and to use their skills and judgment to select an appropriate course of action, often under high workload, time pressure, and ambiguous indications, all of which can be stressful. Our current study, consited of three parts, starting with a critical review of the research literature on the effects of stress on skilled performance, going back to World War II and continuing to recent and more sophisticated studies of the cognitive effects of anxiety. In the second part we analyzed the specific ways stress may have impaired the performance of airline crews in twelve major accidents, selected for diversity of the situations the crews encountered. The third part examined the operational significance and practical implications of the findings from the first two parts, suggested specific ways to reduce the harmful effects of stress on flight crews, and identified aspects requiring further research. Even thought this study focused on flight crews, the findings apply to the effects of stress on the skilled performance of experts in almost any domain