Wirtschaftswissenschaft in Zeiten der Globalisierung

Seit einiger Zeit ist in der wirtschaftspolitischen Diskussion die Auffassung verbreitet, die Wirtschaftswissenschaft stünde im Globalisierungsprozess wachsenden Ansprüchen gegenüber, verbessertes Steuerungswissen für die Wirtschaftspolitik bereitzustellen. Dass große ökonomische Krisen eine Herausforderung für die Wirtschaftswissenschaft als Erfahrungswissenschaft sind, ist nicht neu. Meine These ist jedoch, dass die Globalisierung und die damit verbundene größere Komplexität der Interdependenzen in der Wirtschaft keine grundsätzlich neuartige Problemstellung für die Wirtschaftswissenschaft enthält. Dafür lassen sich zwei Argumente anführen: Erstens werden die wechselseitigen Abhängigkeiten zwischen den institutionellen Regelungen im Bereich der Wirtschaft (Interdependenz der Regelordnungen) seit langem in der Wirtschaftstheorie im Bereich der Wirtschaftsordnungstheorie - oder moderner der Neuen Institutionenökonomik - behandelt. Zweitens ist die internationale Interdependenz, die von einzelnen Aktionen im ökonomischen Prozess eines Landes ausgelöst wird, beginnend mit der klassischen Theorie des internationalen Handels Anfang des 19. Jahrhunderts von David Ricardo und John Stuart Mill für offene Volkswirtschaften erkannt und erklärt worden. Der heutige Globalisierungsprozess, der ökonomische, soziale und politische Dimensionen hat, schafft aus Sicht der Wirtschaftswissenschaft keine grundsätzlich neuartigen Problemstellungen. Allerdings sind die internationalen Abhängigkeiten infolge der steigenden Anzahl privater und staatlicher Wirtschaftsakteure aus immer mehr Ländern, die unterschiedliche institutionelle Spielregeln haben, und wegen der immer stärker differenzierten Güter- und Dienstleistungsmärkte in der Welt zweifellos komplexer geworden. Dies alles verändert aber nicht die Qualität oder Struktur des wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Erkenntnisproblems, sondern dessen Dimension. --Wirtschaftswissenschaften,Globalisierung,Neue Institutionenökonomik,Freiburger Schule

Does the G7/G8 promote trade?

The Group of Eight (G8) is an unofficial forum of the heads of state of the eight leading industrialized countries. In this paper, I examine the effect of the G8 (and its predecessor, the G7) on international trade. I use a gravity model of trade; the panel data set covers bilateral trade between 175 countries from 1948 through 1999. I find that membership in the G7/G8 is consistently associated with a strong positive effect on trade. --institution,organization,agreement,international,multilateral,summit

Does money still matter for U.S. output?

In this note, we use multivariate models estimated with Bayesian techniques and an out-ofsample approach to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes output growth in the United States. We find surprisingly strong evidence for a money-output link over the 1960-2005 period. However, further analysis indicates that this result is likely to be misleading; after the Great moderation, the Granger-causal role of money appears to have vanished completely. --Bayesian VAR,out-of-sample forecasting,granger causality,money,output,federal reserve,Volcker

What drives trade-related R&D Spillovers? Decomposing knowlege-diffusing trade flows

Our paper decomposes knowledge-diffusing trade flows and estimates their impacts separately. Overall, trade generates positive knowledge spillovers, but the effects of intra-industry trade are ambiguous. With regard to sectoral import penetration, we find that potential positive spillovers are dominated by negative competition effects. This, however, masks the significant positive spillover effects of intra-industry trade that corresponds to international out-sourcing. --R&D,trade,productivity,spillovers,competition

The Lucas Paradox and the quality of institutions: then and now

In the first era of financial globalization (1880-1914), global capital market integration led to substantial net capital movements from rich to poor economies. The historical experience stands in contrast to the contemporary globalization where gross capital mobility is equally high, but did not incite a substantial transfer of savings from rich to poor economies. Using data for the historical and modern periods we extend Lucas (1990) original model and show that differences in institutional quality between rich and poor countries can account for the sharply divergent patterns of international capital movements. --capital market integration,financial globalization,economic history

Controllability and persistence of money market rates along the yield curve: evidence from the euro area

Controllability of longer-term interest rates requires that the persistence of their deviations from the central bank's policy rate (i.e. the policy spreads) remains sufficiently low. This paper applies fractional integration techniques to assess the persistence of policy spreads of euro area money market rates along the yield curve. Independently from anticipated policy rate changes, there is strong evidence for all maturities that policy spreads exhibit long memory. We show that recent changes in the operational framework and the communication strategy of the European Central Bank have significantly decreased the persistence of euro area policy spreads and, thus, have enhanced the central bank's in influence on longer-term money market rates. --Long memory and fractional integration,controllability and persistence of interest rates,new operational framework of the ECB

Determinants of the international performance of services: a conceptual model

Countless determinants of export success that are supposed to help managers reduce the failure rates of export ventures have been identified. Despite this abundance of studies, however, little is known about the determinants of the internationalization success of services. In this paper, based on prior studies focusing primarily on manufactured goods and the key characteristics distinguishing services from goods, a comprehensive conceptual model for the successful internationalization of services is developed. --Services,export performance,internationalization,success factors

Does Foreign Direct Investment Transfer Technology Across Borders? A Reexamination

Reexamining foreign direct investment (FDI) as a potential channel for knowledge diffusion - based on industry data from seventeen OECD countries during the period 1973-2000 - we find that FDI-receiving countries benefit strongly from FDI-related knowledge spillovers. We do not find evidence for positive FDI-related technology sourcing effects. Instead, our results suggest that outward FDI might have negative effects on the output of the FDI- sending country. --foreign direct investment,knowledge spillovers

Currency union entries and trade

Recent research suggests that adopting a common currency increases bilateral trade. In this paper, I explore experiences of currency union entry in the post-war period and find no effect on trade. Previous results derived from a large panel data set (covering more than 200 countries from 1948 through 1997) appear to depend crucially on the assumption of symmetry between currency union exits and entries: While countries leaving a currency union experience significant declines in trade, currency union entry appears to have no measurable effect on trade. Also, in a detailed analysis of the enlargement of the CFA franc zone, I find no consistent results on changes in the pattern of trade. --accession,adoption,common currency,monetary integration

The Sources of Aggregate Productivity Growth - U.S. Manufacturing Industries, 1958-1996

The sources of aggregate productivity growth are explored using detailed data for four-digit U.S. manufacturing industries during 1958-96 and a decomposition formula which allows to quantify the contribution of structural change. Labor productivity as well as total factor productivity are considered and the aggregation is performed with either value-added or employment shares. It is shown that structural change generally works in favor of industries with increasing productivity. This effect is particularly strong in the years since 1990, in high-tech industries and in durable goods producing industries. The impact of the computer revolution can be clearly identified.aggregate productivity growth, structural change, manufacturing