Biodiversity climate change impacts report card technical paper:10. Implications of climate change for coastal and inter-tidal habitats in the UK

Executive summary - Coastal habitats are complex, dynamic and interdependent. They are important in providing sea defences, areas for recreation, biodiversity and a range of other ecosystem services. - Increased air- and sea-surface temperatures have resulted in changes in the distribution of marine and coastal species. Both warmer- and colder-water species are shifting northwards. However, warmer-water species are shifting northwards faster than colder-water species are retreating, resulting in changes in community composition. Changes in the abundance of keystone taxa can cause a cascade of responses, further altering community composition. - Changes in the phenology of coastal species have been observed, with the rates of change in marine species being considerably greater than those in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Recent advances in the phenology of species have not all occurred at the same rate, in some cases resulting in mismatches of timing of annual cycles of animals and their food organisms. - Changes in precipitation are likely to affect coastal habitats, but the projected increase in winter rainfall and decrease in summer rainfall will tend to have opposing effects; the net result of these is not known. High winter rainfall and milder winter temperatures may extend the growing season and lead to faster succession and dominance by taller competitive plant species. This will be exacerbated by anthropogenic nutrient enrichment. However, increasing frequency and severity of summer droughts may counteract the effects of nutrient enrichment and winter precipitation. Increased drought will have impacts on habitats that are highly dependent on the maintenance of hydrological regimes, such as machair lochs and dune slacks. - Rising sea levels have been associated with the loss of coastal habitats. Predicted future rises will have significant impacts on coastal and intertidal habitats, including changing geomorphological processes, further habitat loss and increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. However, coastal systems are dynamic and have the potential to adapt to rising sea levels, but only if there is an adequate supply of sediment to allow accretion and if there is landward space for the coast to roll-back into. Sea defences and other coastal management interrupt the movement of sediment between systems and prevent natural coastal realignment. - Managed coastal realignment is beneficial because it offers the potential to create habitat and provide flood defence benefits. Inevitably, there will be conflict between the need to maintain intertidal and other coastal habitats (e.g. saltmarsh, mud flat and sand dune) by realignment, and the need to protect valuable inland coastal habitats, such as grazing marsh and saline lagoons. - Future changes in coastal habitats are hard to predict because it is difficult to separate the impacts of rising sea levels from those of coastal management, including sea defences. Coastal zone management and adaptation, and the interactions with other climate drivers, nutrient deposition and habitat management, will have significant influence on the quantity, quality and location of future coastal habitats

Proceedings of the Workshop on Government Oil Spill Modeling

Oil spill model users and modelers were brought together for the purpose of fostering joint communication and increasing understanding of mutual problems. The workshop concentrated on defining user needs, presentations on ongoing modeling programs, and discussions of supporting research for these modeling efforts. Specific user recommendations include the development of an oil spill model user library which identifies and describes available models. The development of models for the long-term fate and effect of spilled oil was examined

Implications of climate change for coastal and inter-tidal habitats in the UK

Coastal habitats are diverse and vary in the extent to which they are shaped by physiographic processes, such as wave action, wind, tides and sediment availability, and the relative influence of terrestrial and marine environments, e.g. tidal inundation versus groundwater levels. Coastal systems usually comprise mosaics of habitats that are functionally interdependent: for instance, saltmarsh may form behind a barrier island or shingle ridge that itself may also support a dune system; or estuaries may include a range of habitats that ultimately depend on sediment supply from the catchment and the mixing of fresh and saline waters. Coastal grazing marsh is a man-made, largely freshwater habitat, occurring landward of intertidal and coastal habitats and protected from them by natural or man-made structures. Whilst grazing marsh and other coastal habitats are not strictly functionally interdependent, there are significant conflicts between protecting grazing marsh and allowing landward movement of coastal habitats

Coastal oceanography and sedimentology in New Zealand, 1967-91.

This paper reviews research that has taken place on physical oceanography and sedimentology on New Zealand's estuaries and the inner shelf since c. 1967. It includes estuarine sedimentation, tidal inlets, beach morphodynamics, nearshore and inner shelf sedimentation, tides and coastal currents, numerical modelling, short-period waves, tsunamis, and storm surges. An extensive reference list covering both published and unpublished material is included. Formal teaching and research programmes dealing with coastal landforms and the processes that shape them were only introduced to New Zealand universities in 1964; the history of the New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research parallels and chronicles the development of physical coastal science in New Zealand, most of which has been accomplished in last 25 years

Circulation

Circulation is important to distributions of salt, of deep-ocean heat and hence regional climate, of pollutants and of many species carried by the flow during their lifecycle. Currents affect offshore operations and habitats. Five sections from 1957 to 2004 suggest decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulatin (AMOC) but this is within the range of large variability on time-scales of weeks to months. An overall trend has not been determined from the continuous measurements begun in 2004. Deep outflows of cold water from the Nordic seas are likewise too variable to infer any overall trend. Strong North Atlantic flow eastwards towards the UK may correlate with positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index (i.e. prevailing westerly winds). Enhanced along-slope current around the UK may correlate with a negative NAO Index. Climate models’ consensus makes it very likely that AMOC will decrease over the next century, but not ‘shut down’ completely. Similar spatial and temporal variability (arising from complex topography and variable forcing) is likely in future

Use of high resolution sonar for near-turbine fish observations (DIDSON) - We@Sea 2007-002

In this study we investigate small scale distribution of pelagic fish within a windfarm by means of a high resolution sonar (DIDSON, Dual frequency IDentification SONar; Soundmetrics). In addition we assess the bias of small scale variations induced by the effects of wind turbines (monopiles) on distribution of the pelagic fish community in the hydro acoustic surveys carried out on the OWEZ Near Shore Wind farm (NSW)

Exploring high-end climate change scenarios for flood protection of the Netherlands

This international scientific assessment has been carried out at the request of the Dutch Delta Committee. The "Deltacommissie" requested that the assessment explore the high-end climate change scenarios for flood protection of the Netherlands. It is a state-of–the art scientific assessment of the upper bound values and longer term projections (for sea level rise up to 2200) of climate induced sea level rise, changing storm surge conditions and peak discharge of river Rhine. It comprises a review of recent studies, model projections and expert opinions of more than 20 leading climate scientists from different countries around the North Sea, Australia and the US

Remotely forced nearshore upwelling in southern California

[1] Alongshore winds in Baja California strongly influence nearshore temperatures hundreds of kilometers to the north at Point Loma, San Diego, California, on timescales of a week to a year. The time lag between wind and temperature is consistent with first mode coastal trapped wave phase speed. The nearshore cross-shelf circulation forced by the coastal trapped waves is, at least much of the year, oppositely directed at the surface and bottom. No relation is found between the winds and temperature for periods greater than a year. It is argued that similar results may be found elsewhere in the Southern California Bight. The relationship between stratification and bottom temperature varies over the 1.3 years of data, but for much of the time, warmer bottom waters are associated with even warmer surface waters and thus stronger stratification. The effects of the remotely forced cross-shelf exchange on coastal pollution, nutrient dynamics, and larval transport are briefly discussed