Symbolic Exact Inference for Discrete Probabilistic Programs

The computational burden of probabilistic inference remains a hurdle for applying probabilistic programming languages to practical problems of interest. In this work, we provide a semantic and algorithmic foundation for efficient exact inference on discrete-valued finite-domain imperative probabilistic programs. We leverage and generalize efficient inference procedures for Bayesian networks, which exploit the structure of the network to decompose the inference task, thereby avoiding full path enumeration. To do this, we first compile probabilistic programs to a symbolic representation. Then we adapt techniques from the probabilistic logic programming and artificial intelligence communities in order to perform inference on the symbolic representation. We formalize our approach, prove it sound, and experimentally validate it against existing exact and approximate inference techniques. We show that our inference approach is competitive with inference procedures specialized for Bayesian networks, thereby expanding the class of probabilistic programs that can be practically analyzed

Probabilistic Inference Using Partitioned Bayesian Networks:Introducing a Compositional Framework

Probability theory offers an intuitive and formally sound way to reason in situations that involve uncertainty. The automation of probabilistic reasoning has many applications such as predicting future events or prognostics, providing decision support, action planning under uncertainty, dealing with multiple uncertain measurements, making a diagnosis, and so forth. Bayesian networks in particular have been used to represent probability distributions that model the various applications of uncertainty reasoning. However, present-day automated reasoning approaches involving uncertainty struggle when models increase in size and complexity to fit real-world applications.In this thesis, we explore and extend a state-of-the-art automated reasoning method, called inference by Weighted Model Counting (WMC), when applied to increasingly complex Bayesian network models. WMC is comprised of two distinct phases: compilation and inference. The computational cost of compilation has limited the applicability of WMC. To overcome this limitation we have proposed theoretical and practical solutions that have been tested extensively in empirical studies using real-world Bayesian network models.We have proposed a weighted variant of OBDDs, called Weighted Positive Binary Decision Diagrams (WPBDD), which in turn is based on the new notion of positive Shannon decomposition. WPBDDs are particularly well suited to represent discrete probabilistic models. The conciseness of WPBDDs leads to a reduction in the cost of probabilistic inference.We have introduced Compositional Weighted Model Counting (CWMC), a language-agnostic framework for probabilistic inference that partitions a Bayesian network into subproblems. These subproblems are then compiled and subsequently composed in order to perform inference. This approach significantly reduces the cost of compilation, yet increases the cost of inference. The best results are obtained by seeking a partitioning that allows compilation to (barely) become feasible, but no more, as compilation cost can be amortized over multiple inference queries.Theoretical concepts have been implemented in a readily available open-source tool called ParaGnosis. Further implementational improvements have been found through parallelism, by exploiting independencies that are introduced by CWMC. The proposed methods combined push the boundaries of WMC, allowing this state-of-the-art method to be used on much larger models than before

Model Counting of Query Expressions: Limitations of Propositional Methods

Query evaluation in tuple-independent probabilistic databases is the problem of computing the probability of an answer to a query given independent probabilities of the individual tuples in a database instance. There are two main approaches to this problem: (1) in `grounded inference' one first obtains the lineage for the query and database instance as a Boolean formula, then performs weighted model counting on the lineage (i.e., computes the probability of the lineage given probabilities of its independent Boolean variables); (2) in methods known as `lifted inference' or `extensional query evaluation', one exploits the high-level structure of the query as a first-order formula. Although it is widely believed that lifted inference is strictly more powerful than grounded inference on the lineage alone, no formal separation has previously been shown for query evaluation. In this paper we show such a formal separation for the first time. We exhibit a class of queries for which model counting can be done in polynomial time using extensional query evaluation, whereas the algorithms used in state-of-the-art exact model counters on their lineages provably require exponential time. Our lower bounds on the running times of these exact model counters follow from new exponential size lower bounds on the kinds of d-DNNF representations of the lineages that these model counters (either explicitly or implicitly) produce. Though some of these queries have been studied before, no non-trivial lower bounds on the sizes of these representations for these queries were previously known.Comment: To appear in International Conference on Database Theory (ICDT) 201

Learning Task Specifications from Demonstrations

Real world applications often naturally decompose into several sub-tasks. In many settings (e.g., robotics) demonstrations provide a natural way to specify the sub-tasks. However, most methods for learning from demonstrations either do not provide guarantees that the artifacts learned for the sub-tasks can be safely recombined or limit the types of composition available. Motivated by this deficit, we consider the problem of inferring Boolean non-Markovian rewards (also known as logical trace properties or specifications) from demonstrations provided by an agent operating in an uncertain, stochastic environment. Crucially, specifications admit well-defined composition rules that are typically easy to interpret. In this paper, we formulate the specification inference task as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) probability inference problem, apply the principle of maximum entropy to derive an analytic demonstration likelihood model and give an efficient approach to search for the most likely specification in a large candidate pool of specifications. In our experiments, we demonstrate how learning specifications can help avoid common problems that often arise due to ad-hoc reward composition.Comment: NIPS 201

ParaGnosis:A Tool for Parallel Knowledge Compilation

ParaGnosis (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7312034, https://zenodo.org/badge/latestdoi/560170574, Alternative url: https://github.com/gisodal/paragnosis, Demo url: https://github.com/gisodal/paragnosis/blob/main/DEMO.md ) is an open-source tool that supports inference queries on Bayesian networks through weighted model counting. In the knowledge compilation step, the input Bayesian network is encoded as propositional logic and then compiled into a knowledge base in decision diagram representation. The tool supports various diagram formats, including the Weighted-Positive Binary Decision Diagram (WPBDD) which can concisely represent discrete probability distributions. Once compiled, the probabilistic knowledge base can be queried in the inference step. To efficiently implement both steps, ParaGnosis uses simulated annealing to split the knowledge base into a number of partitions. This further reduces the decision diagram size and crucially enables parallelism in both the compilation and the inference steps. Experiments demonstrate that this partitioned approach, in combination with the WPBDD representation, can outperform other approaches in the knowledge compilation step, at the cost of slightly more expensive inference queries. Additionally, the tool can attain 15-fold parallel speedups using 64 cores.</p