Bayesian Core: The Complete Solution Manual

This solution manual contains the unabridged and original solutions to all the exercises proposed in Bayesian Core, along with R programs when necessary.Comment: 118+vii pages, 21 figures, 152 solution

On computational tools for Bayesian data analysis

While Robert and Rousseau (2010) addressed the foundational aspects of Bayesian analysis, the current chapter details its practical aspects through a review of the computational methods available for approximating Bayesian procedures. Recent innovations like Monte Carlo Markov chain, sequential Monte Carlo methods and more recently Approximate Bayesian Computation techniques have considerably increased the potential for Bayesian applications and they have also opened new avenues for Bayesian inference, first and foremost Bayesian model choice.Comment: This is a chapter for the book "Bayesian Methods and Expert Elicitation" edited by Klaus Bocker, 23 pages, 9 figure

A Spatio-Temporal Point Process Model for Ambulance Demand

Ambulance demand estimation at fine time and location scales is critical for fleet management and dynamic deployment. We are motivated by the problem of estimating the spatial distribution of ambulance demand in Toronto, Canada, as it changes over discrete 2-hour intervals. This large-scale dataset is sparse at the desired temporal resolutions and exhibits location-specific serial dependence, daily and weekly seasonality. We address these challenges by introducing a novel characterization of time-varying Gaussian mixture models. We fix the mixture component distributions across all time periods to overcome data sparsity and accurately describe Toronto's spatial structure, while representing the complex spatio-temporal dynamics through time-varying mixture weights. We constrain the mixture weights to capture weekly seasonality, and apply a conditionally autoregressive prior on the mixture weights of each component to represent location-specific short-term serial dependence and daily seasonality. While estimation may be performed using a fixed number of mixture components, we also extend to estimate the number of components using birth-and-death Markov chain Monte Carlo. The proposed model is shown to give higher statistical predictive accuracy and to reduce the error in predicting EMS operational performance by as much as two-thirds compared to a typical industry practice

Transforming Graph Representations for Statistical Relational Learning

Relational data representations have become an increasingly important topic due to the recent proliferation of network datasets (e.g., social, biological, information networks) and a corresponding increase in the application of statistical relational learning (SRL) algorithms to these domains. In this article, we examine a range of representation issues for graph-based relational data. Since the choice of relational data representation for the nodes, links, and features can dramatically affect the capabilities of SRL algorithms, we survey approaches and opportunities for relational representation transformation designed to improve the performance of these algorithms. This leads us to introduce an intuitive taxonomy for data representation transformations in relational domains that incorporates link transformation and node transformation as symmetric representation tasks. In particular, the transformation tasks for both nodes and links include (i) predicting their existence, (ii) predicting their label or type, (iii) estimating their weight or importance, and (iv) systematically constructing their relevant features. We motivate our taxonomy through detailed examples and use it to survey and compare competing approaches for each of these tasks. We also discuss general conditions for transforming links, nodes, and features. Finally, we highlight challenges that remain to be addressed

Centrality Measures for Networks with Community Structure

Understanding the network structure, and finding out the influential nodes is a challenging issue in the large networks. Identifying the most influential nodes in the network can be useful in many applications like immunization of nodes in case of epidemic spreading, during intentional attacks on complex networks. A lot of research is done to devise centrality measures which could efficiently identify the most influential nodes in the network. There are two major approaches to the problem: On one hand, deterministic strategies that exploit knowledge about the overall network topology in order to find the influential nodes, while on the other end, random strategies are completely agnostic about the network structure. Centrality measures that can deal with a limited knowledge of the network structure are required. Indeed, in practice, information about the global structure of the overall network is rarely available or hard to acquire. Even if available, the structure of the network might be too large that it is too much computationally expensive to calculate global centrality measures. To that end, a centrality measure is proposed that requires information only at the community level to identify the influential nodes in the network. Indeed, most of the real-world networks exhibit a community structure that can be exploited efficiently to discover the influential nodes. We performed a comparative evaluation of prominent global deterministic strategies together with stochastic strategies with an available and the proposed deterministic community-based strategy. Effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by performing experiments on synthetic and real-world networks with community structure in the case of immunization of nodes for epidemic control.Comment: 30 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in Physica A. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1411.627

Enhanced information retrieval by exploiting recommender techniques in cluster-based link analysis

Inspired by the use of PageRank algorithms in document ranking, we develop and evaluate a cluster-based PageRank algorithm to re-rank information retrieval (IR) output with the objective of improving ad hoc search effectiveness. Unlike existing work, our methods exploit recommender techniques to extract the correlation between documents and apply detected correlations in a cluster-based PageRank algorithm to compute the importance of each document in a dataset. In this study two popular recommender techniques are examined in four proposed PageRank models to investigate the effectiveness of our approach. Comparison of our methods with strong baselines demonstrates the solid performance of our approach. Experimental results are reported on an extended version of the FIRE 2011 personal information retrieval (PIR) data collection which includes topically related queries with click-through data and relevance assessment data collected from the query creators. The search logs of the query creators are categorized based on their different topical interests. The experimental results show the significant improvement of our approach compared to results using standard IR and cluster-based PageRank methods

Introducing Monte Carlo Methods with R Solutions to Odd-Numbered Exercises

This is the solution manual to the odd-numbered exercises in our book "Introducing Monte Carlo Methods with R", published by Springer Verlag on December 10, 2009, and made freely available to everyone.Comment: 87 pages, 11 figure