Behavior and Effects of Equity Foreign Investors on Emerging Markets

This paper analyzes empirically the behavior of foreign investors on emerging equity markets in a cross-country setting, including 14 emerging markets from the year 2000 to 2005. We could find little evidence that these investors have brought problems to local emerging markets. Foreign investors seem to build and unwind their positions on emerging stock markets slowly enough to avoid problems as price pressure or volatility and kurtosis upswings on the stock market. Also, no negative effects on the foreign exchange market could be found. Regarding feedback trading, we support two hypotheses: positive feedback trading by hedged investors and negative feedback trading by unhedged investors. The latter has stronger statistical evidence and is more likely to occur in the real world. We conclude that there is no reason to impose long-term restrictions to foreign flows.

A new measure of herding and empirical evidence

This study proposes a new measure and test of herding which is based on the crosssectional dispersion of factor sensitivity of assets within a given market. This new measure enables us to evaluate the directions towards which the market may be herding and separate these from movements in fundamentals. We apply the test to an analysis of the US, UK, and South Korean stock markets and somewhat surprisingly, find statistically significant evidence of herding towards ”the market portfolio” during relatively quiet periods rather than when the market is under stress. The approach also allows us to investigate herding towards other factors beyond the market factor and we find that the US market shows significant herding towards “value” after the Russian Crisis in 1998

Maximum drawdown, recovery and momentum

We test predictability on asset price using stock selection rules based on maximum drawdown and consecutive recovery. Monthly momentum- and weekly contrarian-style portfolios ranked by the alternative selection criteria are implemented in various asset classes. Regardless of market, the alternative ranking rules are superior in forecasting asset prices and capturing cross-sectional return differentials. In a monthly period, alternative portfolios constructed by maximum drawdown measures dominate other momentum portfolios including the cumulative return-based momentum portfolios. Recovery-related stock selection criteria are the best ranking measures for predicting mean-reversion in a weekly scale. Prediction on future directions becomes more consistent, because the alternative portfolios are less riskier in various reward-risk measures such as Sharpe ratio, VaR, CVaR and maximum drawdown. In the Carhart four-factor analysis, higher factor-neutral intercepts for the alternative strategies are another evidence for the robust prediction by the alternative stock selection rules.Comment: 28 pages, 6 subfigures; minor revisio

Co-integration and Causality Analysis on Developed Asian Markets For Risk Management & Portfolio Selection

Both practitioners and academicians demand a linkage model across financial markets, particularly among regional capital markets, for both risk management and portfolio selection purposes. Researchers frequently use co-integration and causality analysis in investigating the dependence or co-movement of three or more stock markets in different countries. However, they conducted the causality in mean tests but not the causality in variance tests. This study assesses the co-integration and causal relations among seven developed Asian markets, i.e Tokyo, Hongkong, Korea, Taiwan, Shanghai, Singapore, and Kuala Lumpur stock exchanges, using more frequent time series data. It employs the recently developed techniques for investigating unit roots, co-integration, time-varying volatility, and causality in variance. For estimating portfolio market risk, this study employs Value-at-Risk with delta-normal approach. The results show whether fund managers would be able to diversify their portfolio in these developed stock markets either in long run or short run

FIIs and Indian Stock Market: A Causality Investigation

While the volatility associated with portfolio capital flows is well known, there is also a concern that foreign institutional investors might introduce distortions in the host country markets due to the pressure on them to secure capital gains. In this context, present chapter attempts to find out the direction of causality between foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and performance of Indian stock market. To facilitate a better understanding of the causal linkage between FII flows and contemporaneous stock market returns (BSE National Index), a period of nineteen consecutive financial years ranging from January 1992 to December 2010 is selected. Granger Causality Test has been applied to test the direction of causality.Aczkolwiek brak stabilności związany z przepływami kapitału portfelowego jest dobrze znany, to istnieje również obawa, że zagraniczni inwestorzy instytucjonalni mogą wprowadzać zakłócenia na rynkach krajów przyjmujących z uwagi na wywieraną na nich presję, aby zapewniać zyski kapitałowe. W tym kontekście niniejszy rozdział próbuje poznać kierunek przyczynowości pomiędzy zagranicznymi inwestorami instytucjonalnymi (FIIs) i działaniem indyjskiej giełdy. Aby ułatwić lepsze zrozumienie związku przyczynowego między przepływami FII i mającymi miejsce w tym samym czasie wynikami giełdy papierów wartościowych (BSE National Index), wybrany został okres dziewiętnastu kolejnych lat począwszy od stycznia 1992 do grudnia 2010. Do zbadania kierunku przyczynowości zastosowano test przyczynowości Grangera

Co-integration and Causality Analysis on Developed Asian Markets For Risk Management & Portfolio Selection

Both practitioners and academicians demand a linkage model across financial markets, particularly among regional capital markets, for both risk management and portfolio selection purposes. Researchers frequently use co-integration and causality analysis in investigating the dependence or co-movement of three or more stock markets in different countries. However, they conducted the causality in mean tests but not the causality in variance tests. This study assesses the co-integration and causal relations among seven developed Asian markets, i.e Tokyo, Hongkong, Korea, Taiwan, Shanghai, Singapore, and Kuala Lumpur stock exchanges, using more frequent time series data. It employs the recently developed techniques for investigating unit roots, co-integration, time-varying volatility, and causality in variance. For estimating portfolio market risk, this study employs Value-at-Risk with delta-normal approach. The results show whether fund managers would be able to diversify their portfolio in these developed stock markets either in long run or short run.Risk Management, Causality, Co-integration, Asian Stock Markets

A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds

This article explores the behavior of emerging market mutual funds using a novel database covering the holdings of individual funds over the period January 1996 to December 2000. The degree of herding among funds is statistically significant, but moderate. Herding is more widespread among open-ended funds than among closed-end funds, but not more prevalent during crises than during tranquil times. We find some evidence that funds tend to follow momentum strategies, selling past losers and buying past winners. Copyright 2003, International Monetary Fund

Co-integration and Causality Analysis on Developed Asian Markets For Risk Management & Portfolio Selection

Both practitioners and academicians demand a linkage model across financial markets, particularly among regional capital markets, for both risk management and portfolio selection purposes. Researchers frequently use co-integration and causality analysis in investigating the dependence or co-movement of three or more stock markets in different countries. However, they conducted the causality in mean tests but not the causality in variance tests. This study assesses the co-integration and causal relations among seven developed Asian markets, i.e Tokyo, Hongkong, Korea, Taiwan, Shanghai, Singapore, and Kuala Lumpur stock exchanges, using more frequent time series data. It employs the recently developed techniques for investigating unit roots, co-integration, time-varying volatility, and causality in variance. For estimating portfolio market risk, this study employs Value-at-Risk with delta-normal approach. The results show whether fund managers would be able to diversify their portfolio in these developed stock markets either in long run or short run.Risk Management, Causality, Co-integration, Asian Stock Markets