Forecasting Anomalous Events And Performance Correlation Analysis In Event Data

Classical and Deep Learning methods are quite common approaches for anomaly detection. Extensive research has been conducted on single point anomalies. Collective anomalies that occur over a set of two or more durations are less likely to happen by chance than that of a single point anomaly. Being able to observe and predict these anomalous events may reduce the risk of a server’s performance. This paper presents a comparative analysis into time-series forecasting of collective anomalous events using two procedures. One is a classical SARIMA model and the other is a deep learning Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) model. It then looks to identify if an influx of message events have an impact on CPU and memory performance. The findings of the study conclude that SARIMA was suitable for time series modeling due to the elimination of heteroskedasticity once transformations were implemented, however it was not suitable for anomaly detection based on an existing level shift in the data. The deep learning LSTM model resulted in more accurate time-series predictions with a better ability to be able to handle this level shift. The findings also concluded that an influx of event messages did not have an impact on CPU and memory performance

Privacy-Friendly Mobility Analytics using Aggregate Location Data

Location data can be extremely useful to study commuting patterns and disruptions, as well as to predict real-time traffic volumes. At the same time, however, the fine-grained collection of user locations raises serious privacy concerns, as this can reveal sensitive information about the users, such as, life style, political and religious inclinations, or even identities. In this paper, we study the feasibility of crowd-sourced mobility analytics over aggregate location information: users periodically report their location, using a privacy-preserving aggregation protocol, so that the server can only recover aggregates -- i.e., how many, but not which, users are in a region at a given time. We experiment with real-world mobility datasets obtained from the Transport For London authority and the San Francisco Cabs network, and present a novel methodology based on time series modeling that is geared to forecast traffic volumes in regions of interest and to detect mobility anomalies in them. In the presence of anomalies, we also make enhanced traffic volume predictions by feeding our model with additional information from correlated regions. Finally, we present and evaluate a mobile app prototype, called Mobility Data Donors (MDD), in terms of computation, communication, and energy overhead, demonstrating the real-world deployability of our techniques.Comment: Published at ACM SIGSPATIAL 201

Social Fingerprinting: detection of spambot groups through DNA-inspired behavioral modeling

Spambot detection in online social networks is a long-lasting challenge involving the study and design of detection techniques capable of efficiently identifying ever-evolving spammers. Recently, a new wave of social spambots has emerged, with advanced human-like characteristics that allow them to go undetected even by current state-of-the-art algorithms. In this paper, we show that efficient spambots detection can be achieved via an in-depth analysis of their collective behaviors exploiting the digital DNA technique for modeling the behaviors of social network users. Inspired by its biological counterpart, in the digital DNA representation the behavioral lifetime of a digital account is encoded in a sequence of characters. Then, we define a similarity measure for such digital DNA sequences. We build upon digital DNA and the similarity between groups of users to characterize both genuine accounts and spambots. Leveraging such characterization, we design the Social Fingerprinting technique, which is able to discriminate among spambots and genuine accounts in both a supervised and an unsupervised fashion. We finally evaluate the effectiveness of Social Fingerprinting and we compare it with three state-of-the-art detection algorithms. Among the peculiarities of our approach is the possibility to apply off-the-shelf DNA analysis techniques to study online users behaviors and to efficiently rely on a limited number of lightweight account characteristics