Uncertainty management in the IPCC: agreeing to disagree

Looking back over three and a half Assessment Reports, we see that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has given increasing attention to the management and reporting of uncertainties, but coordination across working groups (WGs) has remained an issue. We argue that there are good reasons for working groups to use different methods to assess uncertainty, thus it is better that working groups agree to disagree rather than seek to bring everybody on one party line.IPCC; uncertainty

Big data analytics:Computational intelligence techniques and application areas

Big Data has significant impact in developing functional smart cities and supporting modern societies. In this paper, we investigate the importance of Big Data in modern life and economy, and discuss challenges arising from Big Data utilization. Different computational intelligence techniques have been considered as tools for Big Data analytics. We also explore the powerful combination of Big Data and Computational Intelligence (CI) and identify a number of areas, where novel applications in real world smart city problems can be developed by utilizing these powerful tools and techniques. We present a case study for intelligent transportation in the context of a smart city, and a novel data modelling methodology based on a biologically inspired universal generative modelling approach called Hierarchical Spatial-Temporal State Machine (HSTSM). We further discuss various implications of policy, protection, valuation and commercialization related to Big Data, its applications and deployment

Deep Learning Techniques in Extreme Weather Events: A Review

Extreme weather events pose significant challenges, thereby demanding techniques for accurate analysis and precise forecasting to mitigate its impact. In recent years, deep learning techniques have emerged as a promising approach for weather forecasting and understanding the dynamics of extreme weather events. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art deep learning in the field. We explore the utilization of deep learning architectures, across various aspects of weather prediction such as thunderstorm, lightning, precipitation, drought, heatwave, cold waves and tropical cyclones. We highlight the potential of deep learning, such as its ability to capture complex patterns and non-linear relationships. Additionally, we discuss the limitations of current approaches and highlight future directions for advancements in the field of meteorology. The insights gained from this systematic review are crucial for the scientific community to make informed decisions and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events

From Data to Decision: The Three Elements of Policymaking Illustrated by The Case of Global Warming

This article studies the process from data acquisition to policy decisions exemplified by studying an optimum policy on global warming. Policymakers must be reasonably skeptical before proposing remedies to curb warming, but policymakers cannot await the final proof of any proposal’s merit. Balancing evidence with doubt requires an informed approach, in which information is converted to knowledge and used to illuminate and compare human welfare connected to different scenarios. This article suggests, normatively, three essential elements for data based policies: evidence, consequence, and strategy. The presented framework for data based policymaking combines results from decision theory, economics, and political theory.data based, decision making, global warming, loss function, policymaking, social welfare, strategy, type-I error

An Integrative Remote Sensing Application of Stacked Autoencoder for Atmospheric Correction and Cyanobacteria Estimation Using Hyperspectral Imagery

Hyperspectral image sensing can be used to effectively detect the distribution of harmful cyanobacteria. To accomplish this, physical- and/or model-based simulations have been conducted to perform an atmospheric correction (AC) and an estimation of pigments, including phycocyanin (PC) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), in cyanobacteria. However, such simulations were undesirable in certain cases, due to the difficulty of representing dynamically changing aerosol and water vapor in the atmosphere and the optical complexity of inland water. Thus, this study was focused on the development of a deep neural network model for AC and cyanobacteria estimation, without considering the physical formulation. The stacked autoencoder (SAE) network was adopted for the feature extraction and dimensionality reduction of hyperspectral imagery. The artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR) were sequentially applied to achieve AC and estimate cyanobacteria concentrations (i.e., SAE-ANN and SAE-SVR). Further, the ANN and SVR models without SAE were compared with SAE-ANN and SAE-SVR models for the performance evaluations. In terms of AC performance, both SAE-ANN and SAE-SVR displayed reasonable accuracy with the Nash???Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) > 0.7. For PC and Chl-a estimation, the SAE-ANN model showed the best performance, by yielding NSE values > 0.79 and > 0.77, respectively. SAE, with fine tuning operators, improved the accuracy of the original ANN and SVR estimations, in terms of both AC and cyanobacteria estimation. This is primarily attributed to the high-level feature extraction of SAE, which can represent the spatial features of cyanobacteria. Therefore, this study demonstrated that the deep neural network has a strong potential to realize an integrative remote sensing application

QUANTIFYING AND MANAGING RISK IN AGRICULTURE

Risk and Uncertainty,