On Bayesian inference with conjugate priors for scale mixtures of normal distributions

Bayesian inference is considered for the multivariate regression model with distribution of the random responses belonging to the multivariate scale mixtures of normal distributions. The posterior distribution of the regression parameters and the predictive distribution of future responses for the model are derived when the prior distribution of the parameters is from the conjugate family and they are shown to be identical to those obtained under normally distributed random responses. This gives inference robustness with respect to departures from the reference case of independent sampling from the normal distribution

Semiparametric Bayesian inference in multiple equation models

This paper outlines an approach to Bayesian semiparametric regression in multiple equation models which can be used to carry out inference in seemingly unrelated regressions or simultaneous equations models with nonparametric components. The approach treats the points on each nonparametric regression line as unknown parameters and uses a prior on the degree of smoothness of each line to ensure valid posterior inference despite the fact that the number of parameters is greater than the number of observations. We develop an empirical Bayesian approach that allows us to estimate the prior smoothing hyperparameters from the data. An advantage of our semiparametric model is that it is written as a seemingly unrelated regressions model with independent normal-Wishart prior. Since this model is a common one, textbook results for posterior inference, model comparison, prediction and posterior computation are immediately available. We use this model in an application involving a two-equation structural model drawn from the labour and returns to schooling literatures

Bayesian Semiparametric Inference in Multiple Equation Models

This paper outlines an approach to Bayesian semiparametric regression in multiple equation models which can be used to carry out inference in seemingly unrelated regressions or simultaneous equations models with nonparametric components. The approach treats the points on each nonparametric regression line as unknown parameters and uses a prior on the degree of smoothness of each line to ensure valid posterior inference despite the fact that the number of parameters is greater than the number of observations. We derive an empirical Bayesian approach that allows us to estimate the prior smoothing hyperparameters from the data. An advantage of our semiparametric model is that it is written as a seemingly unrelated regressions model with independent Normal-Wishart prior. Since this model is a common one, textbook results for posterior inference, model comparison, prediction and posterior computation are immediately available. We use this model in an application involving a two-equation structural model drawn from the labor and returns to schooling literatures.nonparametric regression; nonparametric instrumental variables; SUR model; endogeneity; nonlinear simultaneous equations

Estimating SUR Tobit Model while errors are gaussian scale mixtures: with an application to high frequency financial data

This paper examines multivariate Tobit system with Scale mixture disturbances. Three estimation methods, namely Maximum Simulated Likelihood, Expectation Maximization Algorithm and Bayesian MCMC simulators, are proposed and compared via generated data experiments. The chief finding is that Bayesian approach outperforms others in terms of accuracy, speed and stability. The proposed model is also applied to a real data set and study the high frequency price and trading volume dynamics. The empirical results confirm the information contents of historical price, lending support to the usefulness of technical analysis. In addition, the scale mixture model is also extended to sample selection SUR Tobit and finite Gaussian regime mixtures.Tobit; Gaussian mixtures; Bayesian

Testing mean-variance efficiency in CAPM with possibly non-gaussian errors: an exact simulation-based approach

In this paper we propose exact likelihood-based mean-variance efficiency tests of the market portfolio in the context of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), allowing for a wide class of error distributions which include normality as a special case. These tests are developed in the framework of multivariate linear regressions (MLR). It is well known however that despite their simple statistical structure, standard asymptotically justified MLR-based tests are unreliable. In financial econometrics, exact tests have been proposed for a few specific hypotheses [Jobson and Korkie (Journal of Financial Economics, 1982), MacKinlay (Journal of Financial Economics, 1987), Gibbons, Ross and Shanken (Econometrica, 1989), Zhou (Journal of Finance 1993)] most of which depend on normality. For the gaussian model, our tests correspond to Gibbons, Ross and Shanken's mean-variance efficiency tests. In non-gaussian contexts, we reconsider mean-variance efficiency tests allowing for multivariate Student-t and gaussian mixture errors. Our framework allows to cast more evidence on whether the normality assumption is too restrictive when testing the CAPM. We also propose exact multivariate diagnostic checks (including tests for multivariate GARCH and multivariate generalization of the well known variance ratio tests) and goodness of fit tests as well as a set estimate for the intervening nuisance parameters. Our results [over five-year subperiods] show the following: (i) multivariate normality is rejected in most subperiods, (ii) residual checks reveal no significant departures from the multivariate i.i.d. assumption, and (iii) mean-variance efficiency tests of the market portfolio is not rejected as frequently once it is allowed for the possibility of non-normal errors. -- In diesem Papier schlagen wir exakte likelihood-basierte Tests auf Mittelwert-Varianz- Effizienz im Rahmen des CAPM vor. Dabei wird eine breite Klasse von Verteilungen für den stochastischen Term zugelassen. Normalverteilung ist ein Spezialfall. Die Tests werden im Rahmen von multivariablen linearen Regressionen (MLR) entwickelt. Bekanntlich sind Standardtests, die auf MLR basieren und asymptotisch gerechtfertigt werden, nicht zuverlässig. In der Finanzökonometrie sind exakte Tests für einige wenige Hypothesen vorgeschlagen worden. Die meisten hängen von der Annahme der Normalverteilung ab (Jobson und Korkie (1982), Mac Kinley (1987), Gibbons, Ross und Shanken (1989), Zhou (1993)). Für das gaussianische Modell entsprechen unsere Tests denen von Gibbons, Ross und Shanken. Im nichtgaussianischen Modell betrachten wir Mittelwert-Varianz-Effizienz-Tests, wobei multivariate-Student-t und ?gemischte? Normalverteilungen zugelassen werden. Unser Ansatz gibt mehr Aufschluß darüber, ob die Annahme der Normalverteilung zu restriktiv ist, wenn das CAPM gestestet wird. Wir schlagen auch exakte multivariate Diagnosen (einschließlich Tests für multivariate GARCH-Modelle und multivariate Verallgemeinerungen der bekannten Varianz- Relationen-Tests) sowie Tests auf die Anpassungsgüte und eine Schätzung für die störenden Verschmutzungsparameter vor. Unsere Ergebnisse (für 5-Jahres-Perioden) zeigen das Folgende: (i) multivariate Normalität wird für die meisten Perioden verworfen (ii) die Überprüfung der Residuen zeigt keine signifikante Abweichung von der Annahme einer multivariaten i.i.d. Verteilung (iii), wenn man nichtnormalverteilte Fehler zulässt, werden Mittelwert-Varianz-Effizienz Tests des Marktportfolios seltener verworfen.capital assed pricing model,CAPM,mean-variance efficiency,nonnormality,multivariate linear regression,uniform linear hypothesis,exact test

A Semi-Parametric Bayesian Generalized Least Squares Estimator

In this paper we propose a semi-parametric Bayesian Generalized Least Squares estimator. In a generic GLS setting where each error is a vector, parametric GLS maintains the assumption that each error vector has the same covariance matrix. In reality however, the observations are likely to be heterogeneous regarding their distributions. To cope with such heterogeneity, a Dirichlet process prior is introduced for the covariance matrices of the errors, leading to the error distribution being a mixture of a variable number of normal distributions. Our methods let the number of normal components be data driven. Two specific cases are then presented: the semi-parametric Bayesian Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) for equation systems; as well as the Random Effects Model (REM) and Correlated Random Effects Model (CREM) for panel data. A series of simulation experiments is designed to explore the performance of our methods. The results demonstrate that our methods obtain smaller posterior standard deviations than the parametric Bayesian GLS. We then apply our semi-parametric Bayesian SUR and REM/CREM methods to empirical examples.Comment: 32 pages, 2 figures, 18 table