Identifying Solar Flare Precursors Using Time Series of SDO/HMI Images and SHARP Parameters

We present several methods towards construction of precursors, which show great promise towards early predictions, of solar flare events in this paper. A data pre-processing pipeline is built to extract useful data from multiple sources, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), to prepare inputs for machine learning algorithms. Two classification models are presented: classification of flares from quiet times for active regions and classification of strong versus weak flare events. We adopt deep learning algorithms to capture both the spatial and temporal information from HMI magnetogram data. Effective feature extraction and feature selection with raw magnetogram data using deep learning and statistical algorithms enable us to train classification models to achieve almost as good performance as using active region parameters provided in HMI/Space-Weather HMI-Active Region Patch (SHARP) data files. Case studies show a significant increase in the prediction score around 20 hours before strong solar flare events

Statistical Model of Shape Moments with Active Contour Evolution for Shape Detection and Segmentation

This paper describes a novel method for shape representation and robust image segmentation. The proposed method combines two well known methodologies, namely, statistical shape models and active contours implemented in level set framework. The shape detection is achieved by maximizing a posterior function that consists of a prior shape probability model and image likelihood function conditioned on shapes. The statistical shape model is built as a result of a learning process based on nonparametric probability estimation in a PCA reduced feature space formed by the Legendre moments of training silhouette images. A greedy strategy is applied to optimize the proposed cost function by iteratively evolving an implicit active contour in the image space and subsequent constrained optimization of the evolved shape in the reduced shape feature space. Experimental results presented in the paper demonstrate that the proposed method, contrary to many other active contour segmentation methods, is highly resilient to severe random and structural noise that could be present in the data