The resilience assessment of supply networks: A case study from the Indonesian Fertilizer Industry

Abstract. The complexity of infrastructure availability changes leads to problems in supply networks. Consequently, supply networks need to become resilient to complex systems. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for assessing the resilience of supply networks to changes in infrastructure availability. A socio-technical system approach was integrated with an enterprise-engineering framework to design a resilience assessment framework. The framework aims to aid decision makers in assessing supply networks by considering the six perspectives of socio-technical systems. A case study from the fertilizer industry in Indonesia was used to evaluate the framework. The case study analysis identified port availability as the most important infrastructure facility that influences supply networks resilience in Indonesia. A simulation model was used to explore the effect of port availability on supply networks risk and resilience. By using the simulation model, decision makers can predict the level of risk and key performance indicators in order to assess resilience dimensions

An Approach to the Assessment of Resilience in Indonesian Fertiliser Industry Supply Networks

The fertiliser industry is a significant contributor to the Indonesian economy. Given the need to distribute its products to customers on the 17,000 islands making up the Indonesian archipelago, capacity and availability of ports is a major factor in managing fertiliser product lifecycles and the supply networks. Fluctuations in the availability of infrastructure influence levels of risk in the supply networks. Supply network resilience is important to maintain the performance of the Indonesian fertiliser industry. Currently, decision makers in the Indonesian fertiliser industry use risk assessment reports to assess resilience. Discussions with Indonesian fertiliser industry managers highlighted a second, port management, report that is used to evaluate the availability of infrastructure. An opportunity was identified to use both reports in assessing resilience. This thesis is based on the premise that the risk assessment report can be used as an information resource for resilience assessment. A theoretical framework, based on a synthesis of literature and interviews with industry practitioners, is proposed. Results from interviews concluded that the supply network is a system consisting of social and technical factors. Thus, the approach needed to include both factors. Secondary data collected from risk assessment reports and primary data from brainstorming with key people in the industry were used to validate the approach. The theoretical framework was used to inform the construction of a conceptual model that was populated with data from a real-world case study. A simulation model was then built to translate the conceptual model into a practical application. The simulation model was used to investigate the results of the resilience assessment in different scenarios and predict levels of risk. Early feedback from Indonesian fertiliser industry practitioners indicated that the model could be valuable in the assessment of resilience. This research provides a new approach for managers to predict the level of risk in supply networks. Since the Indonesian fertiliser industry is owned and governed by the Indonesian state, the approach could be used by policy makers as a prototype to assess the current condition of the supply network in Indonesian industries and the output could be used to underpin the planning of supply networks in the future. For academia, the approach provides a new theoretical framework for research on supply network resilience and presents a real example of how agent-based modelling might be used as a tool to support the assessment of resilience

Identifying the emerging vulnerability of railway transport systems across countries by automated analysis of railway accident reports

Although railway accident reports and recommendations are proposed after railway accidents, practitioners and researchers suffer from the need to deal with a large amount of textual data given that most railway safety-related information is recorded and stored in the form of text. Hence, there is a growing need for accurate estimations of the vulnerability of railway transport and for effective mitigation strategies. This thesis extends knowledge on the vulnerability of the railway system by exploring the underlying hazards and building rigorous and automated models to enlarge the database. The conceptual frameworks HazardMap and RecoMap were developed to overcome this gap, using Natural Language Processing (NLP) topic models for the automated analysis of textual data to extract critical insights. Empirical data was retrieved from official railway accident reports published by four countries: Australia - the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB), the UK - Rail Accident Investigation Branch (RAIB), the US - National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and Canada - the Transportation Safety Board of Canada (TSB). Scoping workshops and a survey were conducted to evaluate the usefulness and consistency of railway practice. Case studies of the application to the risk at level crossings and the platform–train interface risks are provided to illustrate how the models proposed work with real-world data. The interpretation of findings indicates the potentially emerging hazard of deterioration in railway safety. Potential barriers to learning across jurisdictions and time might deteriorate the organisational safety culture and endanger railway. To address such obstacles, the HazardMap and RecoMap proposed are capable of automating hazard analysis with adequate accuracy to help stakeholders better understand hazards and help practitioners learn across jurisdictions and time