An analytical framework to nowcast well-being using mobile phone data

An intriguing open question is whether measurements made on Big Data recording human activities can yield us high-fidelity proxies of socio-economic development and well-being. Can we monitor and predict the socio-economic development of a territory just by observing the behavior of its inhabitants through the lens of Big Data? In this paper, we design a data-driven analytical framework that uses mobility measures and social measures extracted from mobile phone data to estimate indicators for socio-economic development and well-being. We discover that the diversity of mobility, defined in terms of entropy of the individual users' trajectories, exhibits (i) significant correlation with two different socio-economic indicators and (ii) the highest importance in predictive models built to predict the socio-economic indicators. Our analytical framework opens an interesting perspective to study human behavior through the lens of Big Data by means of new statistical indicators that quantify and possibly "nowcast" the well-being and the socio-economic development of a territory

SPoT: Representing the Social, Spatial, and Temporal Dimensions of Human Mobility with a Unifying Framework

Modeling human mobility is crucial in the analysis and simulation of opportunistic networks, where contacts are exploited as opportunities for peer-topeer message forwarding. The current approach with human mobility modeling has been based on continuously modifying models, trying to embed in them the mobility properties (e.g., visiting patterns to locations or specific distributions of inter-contact times) as they came up from trace analysis. As a consequence, with these models it is difficult, if not impossible, to modify the features of mobility or to control the exact shape of mobility metrics (e.g., modifying the distribution of inter-contact times). For these reasons, in this paper we propose a mobility framework rather than a mobility model, with the explicit goal of providing a exible and controllable tool for modeling mathematically and generating simulatively different possible features of human mobility. Our framework, named SPoT, is able to incorporate the three dimensions - spatial, social, and temporal - of human mobility. The way SPoT does it is by mapping the different social communities of the network into different locations, whose members visit with a configurable temporal pattern. In order to characterize the temporal patterns of user visits to locations and the relative positioning of locations based on their shared users, we analyze the traces of real user movements extracted from three location-based online social networks (Gowalla, Foursquare, and Altergeo). We observe that a Bernoulli process effectively approximates user visits to locations in the majority of cases and that locations that share many common users visiting them frequently tend to be located close to each other. In addition, we use these traces to test the exibility of the framework, and we show that SPoT is able to accurately reproduce the mobility behavior observed in traces. Finally, relying on the Bernoulli assumption for arrival processes, we provide a throughout mathematical analysis of the controllability of the framework, deriving the conditions under which heavy-tailed and exponentially-tailed aggregate inter-contact times (often observed in real traces) emerge

Social-Aware Forwarding Improves Routing Performance in Pocket Switched Networks

Several social-aware forwarding strategies have been recently introduced in opportunistic networks, and proved effective in considerably in- creasing routing performance through extensive simulation studies based on real-world data. However, this performance improvement comes at the expense of storing a considerable amount of state information (e.g, history of past encounters) at the nodes. Hence, whether the benefits on routing performance comes directly from the social-aware forwarding mechanism, or indirectly by the fact state information is exploited is not clear. Thus, the question of whether social-aware forwarding by itself is effective in improving opportunistic network routing performance remained unaddressed so far. In this paper, we give a first, positive answer to the above question, by investigating the expected message delivery time as the size of the net- work grows larger

On the Relation Between Mobile Encounters and Web Traffic Patterns: A Data-driven Study

Mobility and network traffic have been traditionally studied separately. Their interaction is vital for generations of future mobile services and effective caching, but has not been studied in depth with real-world big data. In this paper, we characterize mobility encounters and study the correlation between encounters and web traffic profiles using large-scale datasets (30TB in size) of WiFi and NetFlow traces. The analysis quantifies these correlations for the first time, across spatio-temporal dimensions, for device types grouped into on-the-go Flutes and sit-to-use Cellos. The results consistently show a clear relation between mobility encounters and traffic across different buildings over multiple days, with encountered pairs showing higher traffic similarity than non-encountered pairs, and long encounters being associated with the highest similarity. We also investigate the feasibility of learning encounters through web traffic profiles, with implications for dissemination protocols, and contact tracing. This provides a compelling case to integrate both mobility and web traffic dimensions in future models, not only at an individual level, but also at pairwise and collective levels. We have released samples of code and data used in this study on GitHub, to support reproducibility and encourage further research (https://github.com/BabakAp/encounter-traffic).Comment: Technical report with details for conference paper at MSWiM 2018, v3 adds GitHub lin