Regulation of Systemic Risk Through Contributory Endogenous Agent-Based Modeling

The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) was created to identify and respond to emerging threats to the stability of the United States financial system. The research arm of the FSOC, the Office of Financial Research (OFR), has begun to explore agent-based models (ABMs) for measuring the emergent threat of systemic risk. We propose an ABM-based regulatory structure that incentivizes the honest participation and data contribution of regulated firms while providing clarity into the actions of the firms as endogenous to the market and driving emergent behavior. We build this scheme onto an existing ABM of a single-asset market to examine whether the structure of the scheme could provide its own benefits to market stabilization. We find that without regulatory intervention, markets acting within this proposed structure experience fewer bankruptcies and lower leverage buildup while returning larger profits for the same amount of risk

A study of response surface in simulation of emergency room systems

The purpose of this research was to characterize a response surface with respect to the changes made to the input variables of an emergency room system. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) was used to identify the behavior of the response variable with respect to the changes made to the input variable. Several factors were examined for relevancy and significance for the purpose of experimentation. The findings of this research revealed that one factor (nurses) was very significant to the performance measures (time in the system). However, the interaction between the other factors also played an important role. It was determined that a linear regression is not useful in predicting the assessed value of time in the system in emergency rooms. Non-linear models need to be explored. A series of production rales were derived. These production rales can be used in a variety of situations where a decision on how to modify model inputs needs to be made

Calibration of a microscopic traffic simulator

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2000.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 88-90).A systematic calibration study was performed on a microscopic traffic simulator- MITSIM. An optimization based framework was developed for calibration. Car- Following model parameters were identified for calibration and experimental design methodology was used to determine the set of sensitive parameters. Calibration was performed by minimizing the deviation between the simulated and observed values of speed. Two different objective function forms were formulated for quantifying the deviation between the simulated and observed values. The search space and the optimum parameter values for the two objective function forms were compared. The effect of stochasticity in calibrating the parameter values was also studied. Stochasticity was found to have a significant impact on the optimal parameter values. It was found that though calibration is an intricate process, the performance of the simulator can be substantially improved by an appropriate calibration study.by Matthew Kurian.S.M

Simulation of personnel mobilization and completion system at brigade level

Cataloged from PDF version of article.Turkish Armed Forces maintains the number of personnel in their units at minimum level during peacetime because of some political and economical reasons, but it sustains some activities under the name of “Personnel Mobilization and Completion System” to enable these units to reach their personnel numbers sufficient to combat in war situation. Today, for only a small part of this system Turkish Armed Forces can perform field exercises to see its behavior. There is no study to investigate all aspects of this system, which has a very important role in directly affecting the combat power of the Army. This thesis aims to analyze and, if there is any, to offer some solutions for the problems by using the simulation method. We believe that by using the simulation model of this system a scientific support mechanism for the commanders during the decision process can be provided. Moreover, by using this model, some improper functions can be detected earlier just at peacetime and some probable solutions can be evaluated with the help of studies including alternative system comparisons and optimization of some decision variables.Karamalak, LeventM.S