Using Artificial Intelligence for Model Selection

We apply the optimization algorithm Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) to the problem of analyzing data on a large population and selecting the best model to predict that an individual with various traits will have a particular disease. We compare ASA with traditional forward and backward regression on computer simulated data. We find that the traditional methods of modeling are better for smaller data sets whereas a numerically stable ASA seems to perform better on larger and more complicated data sets.Comment: 10 pages, no figures, in Proceedings, Hawaii International Conference on Statistics and Related Fields, June 5-8, 200

Cost Adaptation for Robust Decentralized Swarm Behaviour

Decentralized receding horizon control (D-RHC) provides a mechanism for coordination in multi-agent settings without a centralized command center. However, combining a set of different goals, costs, and constraints to form an efficient optimization objective for D-RHC can be difficult. To allay this problem, we use a meta-learning process -- cost adaptation -- which generates the optimization objective for D-RHC to solve based on a set of human-generated priors (cost and constraint functions) and an auxiliary heuristic. We use this adaptive D-RHC method for control of mesh-networked swarm agents. This formulation allows a wide range of tasks to be encoded and can account for network delays, heterogeneous capabilities, and increasingly large swarms through the adaptation mechanism. We leverage the Unity3D game engine to build a simulator capable of introducing artificial networking failures and delays in the swarm. Using the simulator we validate our method on an example coordinated exploration task. We demonstrate that cost adaptation allows for more efficient and safer task completion under varying environment conditions and increasingly large swarm sizes. We release our simulator and code to the community for future work.Comment: Accepted to IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems (IROS), 201

Optimization of Trading Physics Models of Markets

We describe an end-to-end real-time S&P futures trading system. Inner-shell stochastic nonlinear dynamic models are developed, and Canonical Momenta Indicators (CMI) are derived from a fitted Lagrangian used by outer-shell trading models dependent on these indicators. Recursive and adaptive optimization using Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) is used for fitting parameters shared across these shells of dynamic and trading models